I’m in a toxic relationship with Newcastle United – and I’m breaking up with Eddie Howe... maybe | OneFootball

Each edition features an in-depth explainer on one of the week’s biggest tactical talking points, along with a few snippets of other curiosities I’ve spotted in recent matches. There’s even a Q&A section – your chance to weigh in on whatever nonsense has been going on lately.

I’ve been getting asked to “say something” about Newcastle United for, like, six months now, so here you are. My name is Adam Clery and I am in a toxic relationship with my football team.

The problem I have is that I cling – tightly – to two entirely contradictory opinions. The first is that I actually don’t ever want Eddie Howe to not be Newcastle United manager. I’d give him the job until he is biologically unable to keep doing it. In 100 years’ time I would quite happily see a brain floating in a jar of formaldehyde on the touchline, Adidas-branded electrodes running wires to a printer that just keeps spitting out a piece of paper with “4-3-3” written on it.

The repeated, improbable joy he has brought me during his tenure at this club means his credit in the bank can never fully be spent. He could run us all the way down to the National League North and I’d still be in the pub after a 0-0 with Scarborough Athletic loudly going, “Aye lads, but come on, that’s the man who won us a trophy.”

But, at exactly the same time, I also think maybe his time at Newcastle is coming to an end.

I am not (currently) the sporting director, or in any way tasked with the future fortunes of the club. Neither am I a season-ticket holder, spending something close to a grand a year on 19 non-consecutive afternoons and evenings, in the eternal hope I’ll actually enjoy myself. Most importantly, though, I’m not one of the “literally thousands of people” who commit an eye-watering sum of money to following the team across both the country and the continent.

If I was any of the above, I’d think a change was needed this summer. That, given the limitations that are evident this season – the same problems cropping up game after game – the club would be well served by a switch in management. In a season best described as “frustrating”, it’s hard to escape the notion that most of said frustrations stem directly from managerial decisions and not, as it often feels, from a conspiracy of circumstance.

I could argue quite strongly that a new manager would fix a lot of what’s been wrong this season, while also wanting to physically throw hands with anyone who even hints at the idea. You can see my dilemma here.

The issue is thus: Newcastle United are a team that both are and are not. They are, by some criteria, the richest club in the world, yet they are not financially able to attract any of their top transfer targets. They are the equal of European champions PSG in their own backyard this week, yet they are not able to land a glove away to the Premier League’s bottom team the week prior. They are the team with the highest number of presses in the league this season (282), yet they are not scoring any goals as a result of this – just one all season, putting them joint-bottom.

In one of the many Parisian watering holes on the way to the Parc des Princes this week, Sam Dalling – who you know as the star of the Guardian’s Football Weekly podcast but I know as “Sam” – surmised the following: that Newcastle’s next manager might not necessarily be as good as Eddie Howe, but he would at least be different, and that might be even more important right now.

This struck a chord with me for two reasons.

Firstly, this goal Newcastle conceded against Brighton earlier in the season left an indelible mark on my immortal soul, because it shows exactly how to beat this team.

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Two touches before Brighton’s opening goal back in October (ACFC)

Newcastle play, almost religiously, a 4-3-3. But rather than dropping into a 4-4-2 off the ball, they flatten the midfield line and shift into a 4-5-1. You can see it above and, when it’s really, really deep, it’s very difficult to play through. But when it’s not, the way it’s coached makes its flaws so large they’re visible from space.

Danny Welbeck is occupying the minds of the centre-backs there, but up alongside him Brighton have no fewer than four players in this shot standing unmarked between the lines. If you can find any sort of pass through a gap in the midfield, you’re in – and likely outnumbering Newcastle’s back line in the process.

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And then one touch before Brighton’s opening goal back in October (ACFC)

Which, of course, they do, and three seconds later Danny Welbeck has the ball in the back of the net.

Granted, it’s incredibly weird for me to be banging on about a goal conceded almost four months ago, but it’s stuck with me because you see this inflexible shape repeated in every single game without alteration.

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Here it is again, against Barcelona (ACFC)

This is against Barcelona, of all teams. They’re again trying to deny any passes into the middle of the pitch, but time and again Barcelona found them. Not to make this too meta, but you find a lot of teams defend zonally like this only when they’re camped out on the edge of their box. The further up the field they go, the more they start to transition into something more man-to-man – which Newcastle are brilliant at when pressing, but abandon immediately once they retreat to the halfway line.

What it means is that if you go back through all the goals they’ve conceded this season, you’ll see that exact defensive shape appear somewhere in most of them.

Below, Aston Villa set up with every player outside of it before working inside and finding the space for Buendia’s shot.

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Villa before attacking the space between the lines (ACFC)

Only one side in this situation could have prepared for what the other was going to do, and it wasn’t Newcastle. Which brings us back to the original point: there is no guarantee that a new manager would implement a more effective off-the-ball strategy than Eddie Howe… but he would at least implement a different one – something the entire Premier League can’t currently plan for with relative ease.

Despite all of this, though, I deeply, truly want Eddie Howe to still be the Newcastle United manager next season. Things on the pitch desperately need to change, and there’s no reason to think he can’t actually be the one to change them. But, like with every toxic relationship, there comes a point when a friend gets an arm around you and, with a look of pity in their eye, says, “Hun, if he wanted to change, he would?”