Is tonight the ideal opportunity for Manchester City to take the game to Real Madrid? | OneFootball

Manchester City take on Real Madrid at the Bernabeu tonight in the first leg of their Round of 16 Champions League tie. The match is the next iteration of the rivalry between the two teams. Last season, Real Madrid dispatched an injury-ravaged and aging City side 6-3 on aggregate in the knockout phase of last season’s Champions League. The opportunity was in front of Real Madrid last season to expose Manchester City’s frailties. It was a chance that they ruthlessly took.

This season, Real Madrid enter tonight’s match with seven key players unavailable due to injury. Eder Militao, David Alaba, Alvaro Carreras, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe, and Rodrygo will all miss tonight’s match. Their absence could create an opening for Pep Guardiola’s side. It does pose the question: Is tonight the opportunity for Manchester City to get at Real Madrid at the Bernabeu?

Manchester City have the weapons to get at Real Madrid.

It would appear with Eder Militao, David Alaba and Avaro Carreras ruled out of tonight’s match, Real Madrid will play a makeshift defence of sorts against Manchester City tonight. Looking at the Real Madrid squad it is likely that Ferland Mendy or Eduardo Camavinga, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Ascencio and Trent Alexander-Arnold will start in Madrid’s defence. Ahead of them, Aurelien Tchouamini, Eduardo Camavinga and Federico Valverde will likely form Madrid’s midfield. A selection of Vinicius Junior, Brahim Diaz, Arda Güler and possibly Gonzalo Garcia will start upfront for Alvaro Arbeloa’s side. That lineup does have quality in it’s ranks. However, it does look to be frail at the back that Manchester City’s attacking players could get at.

My expectation is that Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo, and Rayan Cherki will start for Manchester City tonight. That attacking lineup has the quality to get at Real Madrid. There is the pace, power, and finishing ability of Haaland combined with Rayan Cherki’s extreme technical ability and ability to break open a game in an instant. However, there is a case for Jeremy Doku, Omar Marmoush, and perhaps Savinho to start at the Bernabeu.

Starting any of Doku, Savinho or Omar Marmoush may give City an attacking edge that Real Madrid can’t live with.

Jeremy Doku has tormented Trent Alexander-Arnold in the past when the England international played for Liverpool. Doku is capable of doing that again at the Bernabeu. The case against Doku is that he has only recently returned from injury and may not be ready to start after starting against Newcastle. Savinho is in form and could start on the right wing to get at Real Madrid’s defence. The case against Savinho starting is that he remains a hot and cold player at this stage of his career. Omar Marmoush bagged a brace against Newcastle and is in form. Erling Haaland is a lock to start tonight in my opinion, so Marmoush’s only chance to start tonight is with Haaland and Semenyo, as he did in Manchester City’s 2-1 win over Liverpool at Anfield. Those three could get at the Madrid defence, and if the chances come, those three are made to take them. Having said that, I expect Cherki to start, as Pep Guardiola will want his Manchester City team to control as much of tonight’s match as possible.

There is a case for Pep Guardiola to start a dynamic front three to get at Real Madrid’s makeshift defence. City does have the players capable of doing just that. I expect Haaland, Cherki, and Semenyo to start at the Bernabeu. Those three could expose the Madrid backline. But if Pep Guardiola wants pace on the wings or another finisher, Jeremy Doku, Savinho, or Omar Marmoush could start.

However, if City are too gung-ho it could play into Real Madrid’s hands.

I do not expect Manchester City to go gung-ho, play an overly attacking lineup to try and put goals past Real Madrid. That isn’t how Manchester City or a Pep Guardiola team play. The expectation is that Rodri, Bernardo Silva and Nico O’Reilly will start at the Bernabeu tonight. That trio has become Pep Guardiola’s preferred midfield. O’Reilly can get forward as we have seen this season. He also scored in Manchester City’s 2-1 win over Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in December. So there is a goal scoring threat in City’s midfield.

If City did go all out tonight to get at Real Madrid, it could well play into Real Madrid’s hands. It would be expected, given the players that Alvaro Arbeloa’s side has out, that Madrid will look to sit in and try to hit City on the break. They will also try and press City when Pep Guardiola’s side looks to play out from the back. The pace and skill of Vinicius Junior looms as Real Madrid’s biggest attacking threat. If City go too hard at Madrid, it could play into their hands. That will be something that Pep Guardiola looks to avoid tonight at the Bernabeu.

Final thoughts.

There is an opportunity for Manchester City to get at Real Madrid tonight. Real Madrid is missing a plethora of important players for tonight’s match. However, it is hard to see Pep Guardiola selecting anything other than an experienced defense and the midfield of Bernardo, Rodri, and O’Reilly. How City lines up in the final third is where City has multiple options to get at Real Madrid’s defence. That may be where Manchester City looks to expose Real Madrid.

I’m expecting City to play with the intention of controlling tonight’s match and taking their chances when they arrive. However, if Pep Guardiola picks a dynamic front three, he may be looking to seize upon the opportunity that Real Madrid’s injuries have created.