La Liga Tips: Mbappe and Real Madrid to overpower Las Palmas | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Mbappe is close to getting off the mark in La Liga

Ahead of the first midweek round of the 2024-25 La Liga campaign, Jamie Kemp previews Real Madrid's trip to the Canary Islands and two other clashes on matchday three...

Atletico Madrid v Espanyol - Wed, 20:30

Atletico Madrid's season is officially up and running. After flexing their muscles in a 3-0 win over Girona on Sunday night, along with runouts for all their new big signings, the appetite for 2024-25 is alive and well at the Metropolitano.

Without creating a stream of quality chances, Atletico were ruthless in their win over Girona; a side who finished above them in La Liga last term. In many ways, this was the likely blueprint for how they mount a title charge this season. Limit chances on the defensive side and be the dominant force in both boxes, if not always the best in between. The new signings will all help with that pursuit.

If there's one thing we know for sure about Diego Simeone's side, it's that they're very good on their own patch. Atletico have won 26 of their last 29 at home (D1 L2), and their victory on Sunday night against a decent opponent looks like it'll tee up plenty more in 2024-25. Between their collective strength and the Metropolitano atmosphere - which was exceptional last time out - away sides have it all on going there this term.

Atletico Madrid have won each of their last eight home games against promoted sides in La Liga, while they've taken 55 of the last 57 available points in such matches. What's more, in the Diego Simeone era, no promoted side has ever travelled to face them in La Liga and managed to keep a clean sheet (37 games).

Against Espanyol - who are the only side still yet to score in La Liga this season - expect Atletico's domination on home soil to continue. Having done so against Girona at the weekend, I'll go with Simeone's men to win both halves in this one.

Real Sociedad v Alaves - Wed, 20:30

Real Sociedad got their first victory of 2024-25 on the board last time out, but it's not been a particularly inspiring start to their campaign in terms of performances. They'll be hoping their narrow 1-0 triumph away to promoted Espanyol, getting the first win out of the way, will relax things and soon make way for the football they're capable of.

Based on expected goals (xG), Real Sociedad have the fourth-worst differential through the first two rounds of the new season. They've created 1.77 xG and conceded 2.9, while they've also faced more shots (25) than they've attempted themselves (19), despite the relatively easy start they've had to the season in terms of opposition strength.

While they've struggled to score goals, the other big headache Imanol Alguacil is currently dealing with is the health of his defenders. Following the big money sale of Robin Le Normand to Atletico Madrid in the summer, the club are currently working on bringing in Mats Hummels as an impressive replacement. In the meantime, however, Igor Zubeldia, Jon Pacheco and Aritz Elustondo - three of their current centre backs - are all dealing with injuries in some form.

With the possibility that Real Sociedad have to shuffle the deck and use some players out of position at centre back for Wednesday night's game, I think the combination of their struggles in front of goal and the likelihood that they'll have to protect a potentially makeshift defence could make for a low-scoring affair here.

Only one of La Real's last nine games in La Liga have seen over 2.5 goals land, while Alaves haven't scored more than once in any of their last eight away games in the competition. In a game between two sides who have been slow out of the gates this season as far as performances go, and factoring in the home side's injury struggles, I'll opt for a low-scoring draw at the Reale Arena.

Las Palmas v Real Madrid - Thu, 20:30

Las Palmas would have been satisfied with their performance in their season opener against Sevilla (a 2-2 draw), but defeat against promoted Leganes last time out puts a little bit of pressure back on for new boss Luis Carrion. Ideally, they'd have liked to get something on MD2 knowing a clash with Real Madrid is next up for them and their new project.

It'll take a good few more weeks to establish what exactly Carrion's Las Palmas might be capable of this season, but we can be pretty sure that they'll be an entertaining side - for better or for worse - in 2024-25. In the transition from a high possession side lacking penalty area presence to one who have less of the ball and want to attack with more speed, a theme of their games looks likely to be chances at both ends.

Las Palmas' first two games of the new campaign have seen a total of 52 shot attempts (25 for, 27 against), with only Girona and Sevilla (both 56) seeing more in their matches. Indeed, the combined 5.6 xG in their two games so far (2.3 for, 3.3 against) is also the third-most through the opening two matchdays.

Against a Real Madrid side boasting the attacking riches of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo, trading chances in this one could - of course - spell trouble.

The reigning champions have been far from stellar in their first two league games of the 'Mbappe era', but things are sure to click at some point in the next few weeks. The star power at the top of the pitch is simply too strong, and even in a fairly flat performance against Real Valladolid last time out, the 3-0 scoreline by the time the whistle went says much about their ability to stack up the goals when not necessarily playing well.

Kylian Mbappe had the most shots on target of any player through the first two rounds (5), despite failing to score in both games. He's close to getting off the mark, and I expect he'll help Real Madrid to outscore Las Palmas by a comfortable margin here.

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