Lewis Jones' Notebook: Back Palmer at 25/1 to make Champions League his goals playground | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Lewis Jones says back Chelsea's Cole Palmer for Champions League top goalscorer

In his latest Notebook, Lewis Jones thinks he's found a huge slice of value in the Champions League top goalscorer market with Cole Palmer ticking every box at 25/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook...

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Big-game player Palmer fits the bill

For a slice of value in the Champions League top goalscorer market, look no further than Chelsea's Cole Palmer at 25/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook with each-way stakes in mind.

With Betfair paying a quarter the odds for a top-four finish in this market, it makes perfect sense to take the each-way on Palmer who will land around 6/1 in the place money. It's overpriced.

Yes, in this type of market you're looking to side with a player who is guaranteed to go deep in the competition and play lots of matches. And, of course, Chelsea aren't among favourites. But this isn't about team trajectory alone, it's about a player who thrives when the lights are brightest, one whose got ice in his veins and a left foot that doesn't flinch when the pressure is on.

The bigger the stakes, the cooler he gets. There's an unmistakable swagger to his play when the pressure mounts and on his first foray into the Champions League arena, he could just take it by storm.

Putting myself into the traders' shoes and I wouldn't want to be laying this price, which is usually a great sign that we've got value on our hands.

Palmer is quite difficult to price up from a bookmaker view as he's never played in this competition but everything points to him relishing the big games that this competition brings. His record is really impressive when it comes to the high-stakes matches.

Despite not even playing 100 club games in his career, Palmer has already scored two goals in a Club World Cup final, where he won the player of the match award. He ran the show in Chelsea's comeback win in the Conference League final and almost hauled England to their first major success since 1966 by scoring the equaliser in the European Championship final off the bench.

The Champions League tends to favour players who have the mentality, skill and opportuntic nature to shine in the high-pressure moments.

It's these kinds of players who win the top goalscorer award.

Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland have all landed this prize and I'm happy to put Palmer into that stratosphere of talent. You don't win this award without having penalty-taking duties in your locker, too. He has missed just one of his 19 penalties in his career.

Is Palmer an elite finisher? Yes

The data backs up the eye test in terms of his finishing. No player who has scored more than 28 goals since the start of the 23/24 Premier League season (Palmer has 38) has a better 'big chance conversion rate' according to Opta than the Chelsea maverick's return of 53 per cent. For context Haaland's is at 42 per cent and Alexander Isak's at 48 per cent.

Palmer doesn't need a bucketload of chances - give him a clear sight of goal, and more often than not, the goalkeeper is picking the ball out of the net. This is efficient, ruthless, elite finishing.

The likes of Kane, Mbappé and Haaland dominate the market. Rightly so. While the markets obsess over club strength and perceived path to the knockouts, however, they're missing the nuance. Chelsea might not win it, but they could go deep. Palmer do serious damage in the league phase and early knockouts.

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Back Cole Palmer to be Champions League top goalscorer @ 25/1