Liverpool backed as favourites for Man City clash as Opta make their call | OneFootball

Liverpool head into Sunday’s Premier League meeting with Manchester City as narrow favourites, according to Opta’s predictive model, despite an inconsistent campaign to date.

The Opta supercomputer gives us a 43% chance of victory at Anfield, compared to City’s 30.3%, with the draw rated at 26.7%.

That backing is not rooted in blind faith or sentiment, but in a collection of trends that continue to favour Liverpool when this fixture rolls around on Merseyside.

Liverpool’s Anfield record against Man City still matters

(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Liverpool have lost just one of our last 22 Premier League home games against Manchester City, winning 14 and drawing seven in that run.

The only defeat came in February 2021, the sole occasion City have beaten us at Anfield and while we were reigning champions in an empty stadium.

That historical context remains relevant, particularly with Pep Guardiola’s side again travelling to Anfield knowing it has rarely been a forgiving venue for them.

Erling Haaland, now 25, has also failed to score in all three of his Premier League away appearances against Liverpool.

Anfield is one of just two grounds the Norwegian has played at in the division without finding the net, which further feeds into the sense that City’s attacking threat does not always translate here.

Former Liverpool striker Peter Crouch also struggled to split the sides, predicting a high-scoring draw and backing Hugo Ekitike to open the scoring when speaking on That Peter Crouch Podcast.

Recent form suggests Liverpool are harder to beat

(Photo by Kate McShane/Getty Images)

Manchester City’s task could also be complicated by the likely absence of Bernardo Silva, with Pep Guardiola admitting the Portugal international remains an “incredible doubt” because of a back muscle problem.

Liverpool’s season has been uneven, but the broader trend since mid-October has been one of stability rather than collapse.

Since matchday 13, no Premier League side has lost fewer games than Liverpool, with Arne Slot’s side recording just one defeat across 12 league fixtures.

That resilience was underlined in the 4-1 win over Newcastle United last time out, when Liverpool recovered from an early setback to overwhelm their opponents with attacking quality.

Florian Wirtz continues to grow into his role, while Hugo Ekitike has become increasingly decisive in front of goal.

Since December, Wirtz has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player in all competitions, while Ekitike has reached double figures for league goals at a younger age than any Liverpool player since Michael Owen.

Those attacking improvements matter, especially against a Manchester City side that has not scored a second-half league goal in 2026 and has shown vulnerability after the break.

City remain a strong side and are enjoying a better league position than us, but they are also six points behind Arsenal and under pressure to keep pace.

Liverpool, meanwhile, arrive with renewed confidence, a strong home record in this fixture, and statistical trends that explain why Opta see us as favourites.

It does not guarantee anything on Sunday, but it does explain why belief is quietly returning ahead of one of the Premier League’s defining rivalries.

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