Liverpool v PSG: Back European Champions to stamp their authority at 10/3 and 17/2 | OneFootball

Click here for Liverpool v PSG oddsTuesday, 20:00Live on Amazon Prime

Tough task for Arne Slot's men

It finished 2-0 to PSG in the first leg in Paris but truth be told it could have been an awful lot worse for Liverpool. Setting up in a back five for the first time this season across Premier League and Europe, the Reds had just 26% possession, mustered just three shots, whilst conceding 18, including four big chances, resulting in a total of 2.35 xG against.

It means Liverpool are 5/1 to qualify but even that looks short when we consider they need to score at least two more than PSG just to get to extra-time and Liverpool -1 handicap is already 10/3. Liverpool -2 handicap is 9/1 which looks far more attractive than the 5/1 to qualify and you could even cover it with Liverpool to win in extra-time at 20/1 or on penalties also at 20/1 if the Reds only win by two goals and then progress.

Could the magic of Anfield deliver famous comeback?

Anfield is famous for it's European miracle nights.

In 1976, Liverpool hosted Bruges in the first leg of the UEFA Cup final. Things got off to a terrible start with Bruges taking a 2-0 lead in the first half. But the Reds scored three goals in just five second-half minutes to win 3-2 before drawing 1-1 in the second leg and lifting the UEFA Cup. In the European Cup quarter-finals in 1977, Liverpool faced French opposition in Saint Etienne having lost the first leg 1-0. Kevin Keegan levelled the tie in just the second minute until the opposition made it 1-1 just after half-time. Ray Kennedy put the hosts back in-front and then fresh off the substitutes bench, David Fairclough scored the winner to make it 3-1 with just six minutes left in-front of the Kop. Liverpool went on to win their first ever European Cup.

In the final group game in 2004, Liverpool needed to beat Olympiacos by two clear goals to advance to the knockout stages. However, Rivaldo scored a free-kick in the first half meaning the Reds needed to score three goals without reply. Half-time substitute Florent Sinama-Pongolle scored just two minutes after the break before another substitute in Neil Mellor made it 2-1 with only 10 minutes left to play. With the game heading towards injury time Steven Gerrard stepped up with THAT goal to make it 3-1 and into the draw for the last 16. It was perhaps the catalyst for the rest of the competition as Liverpool lifted a fifth European Cup from an impossible 3-0 half-time deficit in the final versus Milan.

The "Klopp Derby" in 2016 in the Europa League semi-final was finely poised after a 1-1 draw in the first leg. Things looked done and dusted after Dortmund took 2-0 and 3-1 leads. However, goals from Coutinho and Mamadou Sakho levelled the tie before Dejan Lovren dramatically headed the winner in injury time.

However, the most impressive comeback is perhaps the most recent as in 2019 Liverpool overturned a 3-0 first-leg Champions League semi-final loss against Barcelona. Despite the Reds missing both Salah and Firmino, a first-half goal from Divock Origi, a second half brace from substitute Georginio Wijnaldum and another Origi goal from a quickly taken corner sealed the Reds progress with a 4-0 win, where they once again when on to lift the European Cup for the sixth time. Will we see another miracle on Tuesday?

Goals on the cards?

Over 2.5 goals again looks prohibitively short at just 2/5 particularly given Liverpool's inability to create high quality chances against this PSG side and an early away goal could see this tie fizzle out very quickly. Both teams to score is even shorter at 4/11 and again it's not something I would want to entertain given none of the three matches between Arne Slot and Luis Enrique have seen both sides concede.

Best bets for Liverpool v PSG - take a chance on visitors

It looks a tough ask for a Liverpool side that has already lost 16 times this season and up against the reigning European champions who have had the weekend off.

Liverpool were initially favourites for the match with home advantage and the motivation of needing to win but there is already movement for the French side with the odds now an equal 7/5 for both sides. This will be the fourth meeting in the last year and when you look at the previous three, it's difficult to see how the Reds can overturn the deficit. In total, PSG have outshot Liverpool 55 - 23, creating 11-2 big chances, resulting in an xG victory of 6.26 - 1.89.

As a result it makes sense to want to side with the French champions but it's hard to be 100% sure of their motivation given a one goal defeat is enough to see them through. So instead of backing a PSG win at 7/5, I think it makes sense to chance them at bigger prices to pick off Liverpool by backing them on the handicaps with PSG -1 at 10/3 and PSG -2 at 17/2. They look to be hitting their stride at the business end of the season with six of their last seven wins by more than a goal including a 3-0 win at Chelsea despite already holding a 5-2 lead. PSV, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace have all won by three goals at Anfield this season.