Man City v Sparta Prague: Back 9/5 City to be breached once again | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Stinch is back to preview Manchester City v Sparta Prague in the Champions League

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is here to preview Manchester City v Sparta Prague in the Champions League on Wednesday...

Manchester City v Sparta Prague (Wed, 20:00)

Despite Man City being enormous 1/16 favourites, I was eagerly anticipating this matchup. That is because of the disparity in odds, the most likely way the game will play out is that City will win by two or three goals with the Asian Handicap set at -2.75. That means the game would be uncompetitive, and as a result, can turn into a bit of friendly-type atmosphere, leading to a non-event for the remainder of the game. This in turn can often lead to low card affairs which is actually in-keeping with both of City's game so far. Last time out in a 4-0 win away to Slovan Bratislava there were zero cards and against Inter in their opening 0-0 draw there was just one card to Ruben Dias. However, unfortunately, in my mind that is already factored in, with the line set at just 2.5 and under 0.5 cards just 9/1 and thus little to no value. I hope I don't pass up another winning bet after two Man City defenders scored against Wolves on Sunday after I pointed out their set-piece vulnerability!

I'm not a fan of having to overcome big handicaps like the 2.75 we have here because often when a team takes a two goal lead they can take their foot off the gas because the motivation is no longer there. So with that in mind, let's have a look at how City have performed since Pep Guardiola took over at the start of 2016/17 season at home in the Champions League group stages as big favourites. Could it be that chancing some correct scores at big prices is a better approach than backing the handicap?

Firstly it's worth remembering that City had already qualified in some of these games. Secondly, it's noticeable that many of the games aren't the walkovers I expected with City's defence also being breached. City haven't been keeping many clean sheets at the Etihad of late either. Since January, 14 of the last 20 games have seen both teams score (70%) and when both teams to score is priced at 9/5 like it is here, it just seems too big to turn down.

We could be a bit greedier and take the 2/1 for Man City to win and both teams to score, however, a Sparta Prague goal potentially completely changes how the game plays out if it's a goal to take the lead or to equalise, so isn't worth the risk for such a small increase in my opinion.

It's difficult to forecast the threat Sparta Prague will pose but they did score home and away versus Liverpool in the Europa League last season, albeit with no van Dijk or Alisson in either game. They also scored away to Real Betis in the group stages and this season found the net at Stuttgart last time out so it feels like a better chance than 9/5.

Finally, I mentioned the possibility of shooting for some correct scores. Across those 11 games the aggregate score was 31 - 4 at an average of 2.82 - 0.36. Given City's fragility clean sheet wise, which can't be helped by the absence of Rodri, I'm keen on rounding both of these figures up and having a pop at 3-1 at bigger prices.

Now read Lewis Jones' Leipzig v Liverpool match tipping preview here!

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 1.25ptsReturned: 1.42ptsP/L: +0.17pts

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