Manchester City v Newcastle: Swerve Haaland and back Antoine Semenyo to fire first at 7/1 | OneFootball

Man City v NewcastleWednesday 4 February, 20:00 kick-offLive on Sky Sports &

For those thinking about taking the Betfair Sportsbook's 10.0 on Newcastle qualifying for the Carabao Cup final, there are some things you should know.

In the history of the League Cup, no team who has lost the semi-final first leg by two or more goals has gone onto make the final. Still tempted?

Well, if you run the aggregate score from the last 11 head-to head fixtures at the Etihad Stadium then you get Manchester City winning 37-3 based on those numbers. The Toon haven't even scored a single goal in their last 11 visits to face Pep Guardiola's side.

City at home with a lead to protect, is usually where cup ties go to quietly die. You can expect long spells of possession and minimal risk. Newcastle have to score twice just to force extra-time, yet this is a City team that specialises in denying territory at home.

Eddie Howe's side are brave, energetic and well-drilled but this screams damage limitation rather than cup heroics.

The Betfair traders put City in as 3/4 favourites to win in 90 minutes with Newcastle the 16/5 outsiders.

For those betting on goals the Sportsbook has over 2.5 goals at odds-on, 4/7, under 2.5 is 11/8.

Semenyo's form outshines Haaland

Erling Haaland will be a popular punt in the first goalscorer market at 3/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook. He is an automatic play for some punters. But those following him of late will have been burning through cash. He's managed only one open play goal in his last nine starts and was largely anonymous in City's 2-2 draw with Tottenham. It's hard to justify him taking up so much of the first-goalscorer market at 3/1.

Also, the Norwegian hasn't found the net in the last 10 hours 53 minutes of action against Newcastle and he's still searching for a goal in his eight appearances in semi-finals or finals for Manchester City. You'd expect a talismanic figure to raise his game in the big moments, but the evidence just isn't there to back up that argument yet.

The bet in this market simply has to be Antoine Semenyo at 6/1 - a big-money signing that's already paying off. Since arriving from Bournemouth he's hit the ground running.

Four goals in five starts since signing tells its own story, but the eye test backs it up.

Overall he has 14 goals in all competitions this season and has six goals in his last nine Premier League appearances - no player has scored more Premier League goals since December 15.

Semenyo isn't waiting for scraps, he's actively hunting goals. He's looking utterly at home in his new colours. That sort of form shouldn't be dismissed lightly and yet his 6/1 to score first is inflated precisely because the market is overemphasising Haaland. You're paying betting tax based on his reputation. And bets like that really are ones to avoid.

6/1 is a bet built on form, confidence, the eye test and recent history where this very bet landed in the first leg between the teams. I'm happy to follow it to go in again.

Count on Harrington to point to spot

The referee appointment has also caught my eye here. When assessing penalty markets, it's key to have a referee with a proven willingness to point to the spot. And referee Tony Harrington brings that to this table, awarding a penalty in three of his last four games in charge.

He's a referee who doesn't shy away from big decisions in big moments.

Now layer in the VAR factor, which always nudges penalty bets in the right direction.

VAR is going to have lots of penalty area entries to analyse. More touches in the box equals more scrutiny and scrutiny is the friend of the penalty punter.

It's 7/5 for a penalty to be awarded.