MLS Week 4 Best Bets | OneFootball

The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the replay on Spotify with video, below.

Match- Toronto FC host Red Bull New York

Pick- Red Bull NY Draw No Bet +100

The New York Red Bulls’ loss to CF Montreal last week skewed the team’s perception, but not for hardcore RBNY supporters.  This season was always going to be marked by growing pains; a new coach and lineup featuring only three players from the 2024 MLS Cup squad is a sign of change. However, one poor performance doesn’t mean to stop picking pro-NY bets. 

This week RBNY coach Michael Bradley makes his return to Toronto to host a much improved TFC.  Mihailovic has done well everywhere (he’s that kind of #10) and Josh Sargent could make his debut. 

This is Toronto’s first home match of the year.  They went 3-7-7 at home in 2025.  We should still see any match they play as 50% or lower to win. With RBNY, who I still think has the better squad (and coach) at +100 for the Draw No Bet, that is a simple official play.  

Match- Columbus Crew host Nashville SC

Pick- Draw +290, Under 2.5 +142 (½ Unit Plays)

So, I think I know the gamescript here, so I am doing the unusual “two plays at a half unit each.”

The Crew are not the Crew of old.  Their 7th place finish in 2025 was sold to the masses as a hiccup, but with a 0-2-1 start,  including draws to SKC and the Fire, it’s starting to look more like a feature. 

Nashville is likewise in an unpredictable spot.  They had some major roster changes, adding wingers like Cristian Espinoza, but otherwise running back the same team- without Walker Zimmerman.  They are 2-1-0, but with home wins over Minnesota and the Revolution, who knows what this team is?

This match has DRAW written all over it.  It also seems likely both teams come out conservatively, and both try not to make the first mistake.  I also like the under total on 2.5 goals. 

Match- Charlotte FC host Inter Miami

Pick- Over 3.5 Goals +120

Charlotte FC host Inter Miami in Week 4 MLS action, and I like goals.  Charlotte has seen 9 goals in three 2026 matches, while Inter Miami has combined for 12 goals in three. This continues Miami’s streak of hitting totals since the end of last season.

Charlotte’s defense took a big step back without Malanda, and I think that provides the opening Miami needs to score three on their own.  Charlotte likely needs only one goal to reach four total, and the bet would land.  

There were only two matches since 2025 where Charlotte was shut out at home. This likely won’t be a third. 

Match- FC Dallas hosts San Diego FC

Pick- San Diego FC +125

When San Diego FC is plus money, we bet on San Diego FC. 

Thank you for your attention in this matter. 

Match- Houston Dynamo host Portland Timbers

Pick- Houston Dynamo +110

The Houston Dynamo looked good since preseason, and have a 1-1 record to start 2026. They were beneficiaries of New England weather, and their match last week was postponed.  I think they rested and are looking to take advantage of the Portland Timbers who will be without some key pieces. 

David da Costa is still questionable, although he looks like he will be available as a sub.  Portland can’t get to 100% without him.  They will also be without Jimer Fory, on a red card suspension.  They are still missing Zac McGraw, Juan Mosquera, and Omir Fernandez.  While no one of those three is a huge hit, together they add to the theme of Portland playing shorthanded. 

Houston is a bit of an unknown, but at +110 home odds, I will pay for that information. I think they improved a lot this offseason with Bogusz and Guilherme, and now is the time to prove it. 

Match- Real Salt Lake hosts Austin FC

Pick- Real Salt Lake Team Total Over 1.5 +105

RSL has a little youth movement of their own cooking, with two straight wins against Seattle and Atlanta.  Aiden Hezarkhani has two goals in those matches, along with Zavier Gozo and Sergi Solans. If you add Ariath Piol, who is done for the season with an Achilles, every goal scorer for RSL this season is aged 23 and under.  

Austin FC, on the other hand, has had early ups and downs.  They beat DC at home 1-0, but drew Minnesota 2-2 and lost their only road game 3-1 to Charlotte FC.  Austin has 5 straight road losses going back to September of last year, and lost all of them by conceding two goals or more. 

RSL is lively, but still young.  I want them to score twice, which they did twice this season already and did in 47% of 2025 matches. At +105 these odds are exactly where they should be if RSL wasn’t improving. 

They are, and +106, according to my model, reflects a HUGE 17.96% advantage on the sportsbooks’ implied probability. 

Match- LAFC hosts St. Louis City

Pick- LAFC -1.5 -112

LAFC is also a team that we bet at plus money, but lately you need to be the spread or a parlay to get anywhere close to even money.  I like the -1.5 goal spread at -122 odds. 

LAFC has beaten opponents by two goals or more twice this season, against Miami and the Dynamo.  They didn’t win by two goals in a cagey match against Dallas. 

St. Louis City is just not on LAFC’s level.  They have to travel each weekend, as they play in the Western Conference, and have not improved in the last few offseasons.  They may also be emotionally drained after the passing of Eduard Lowen’s wife this past week.  Of course, we will keep Ilona, Eduard, and the Lowen family in our thoughts this weekend. 

Did you know the Designated Pundits break down their MLS card each Thursday at 8:00 PM, LIVE on YouTube?

Subscribe here- youtube.com/@thedesignatedpundits