Newcastle v Sunderland: Back a Bet Builder card double at 9/1 | OneFootball

Stinch is back to preview Newcastle v Sunderland in the Premier League

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is back to preview Newcastle v Sunderland in the Premier League on Sunday...

Click here for Newcastle v Sunderland oddsSunday, 12:00Live on Sky Sports

Derby history

This will be the first Tyne-Wear meeting between Newcastle and Sunderland at St. James Park since a 1-1 draw in March 2016 - a decade ago. A lot has happened since then.

Newcastle have firmly established themselves as a trophy-winning Premier League club competing in the Champions League, and after starting the season with five wins in nine games, Sunderland have sat comfortably in mid division all season, and enter here just two points behind their neighbours following an eight year absence from the top flight.

Home-Draw-Away

Newcastle look a bit short to win at 1.73. They've only won three of their last nine home games, alarmingly losing five times. They will once again be without their captain and talisman in Bruno Guimaraes who during his Newcastle career has missed 14 league matches and they have won just two without him.

This will also be Newcastle's 23rd match this calendar year compared to Sunderland's 16th and after being given the runaround in Spain by Barcelona on Wednesday night, you wonder how much they have left in the tank.

Sunderland are a tough nut to crack. Only Aston Villa (19) have won more points from losing positions than the Black Cats (16) this season, whilst conversely only West Ham (20) have dropped more points from winning positions than Newcastle (19).

Sunderland are also one of three teams not to lose when scoring first this season (W6, D4)). I'm not sure I want to side with Sunderland however, as their form recently has seen them lose seven of their last 13 games across all competitions.

Over/Under

The reverse fixture in December had a total expected goals figure of just 0.54 (Sunderland 0.30, Newcastle 0.24) - the second lowest in the Premier League since records began in the 2012/13 season. The total shots amounted to just 11 (Sunderland five, Newcastle six) which is the lowest since the start of 2023/24. I don't see why all of a sudden this game should turn into a goal-fest, particularly with 67% of Sunderland's away games seeing Under 2.5 goals.

That's why I'm surprised to see Over 2.5 goals as favourite at 1.96.

Sunday 22 March, 12.00pm

Therefore this brings in backing Under 2.75 goals at 1.79 as a solid bet. Only four or more goals will see the bet lose and Sunderland's strike rate for Under 3.5 goals stands at 87%, 93% away from home.

Both teams to score 'No' is also a proposition but I'm never comfortable backing teams to keep clean sheets and at only 2.02 it's not attractive with two potentially goals sinking the bet where as a comfortable winner for Under 2.75.

Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs/bet builders

Betfair are offering Bet £10 Get £10 on football bet builders and accas this weekend and there looks to a card double worth a poke.

Given it's a derby and the fact there was eight cards (four each) in the reverse fixture, we have to look at the card angles. The line is steep, set at 5.5 meaning we'd need six to get paid at 23/20. For a league where the card line is usually 3.5, I'm not rushing to back the Overs given the increased line.

The previous meeting only had four cards going into injury time for example. Referee Anthony Taylor can be a bit hit-or-miss but is averaging 3.96 cards per-game this season. So with Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 offer on Bet Builders, it makes sense to pick a player from each side to get booked instead.

For Newcastle, Joelinton is their most booked player this season with 14 cards but this is reflected in the odds as he is just 1/1 to collect another one. Instead Newcastle's second most carded player and local lad in Dan Burn looks the way to go at 2/1 having picked up 12 cards this season. He's committing the second most fouls for the Toon Army (behind Joelinton obviously) at 1.50 per-game and will likely be up against Brian Brobbey who's been fouled 19 times in his 13 starts this season, including four times in the reverse fixture. Taylor booked Burn away at Tottenahm the only time he's officiated him this season.

For Sunderland, holding midfielder Noah Sadiki at 2/1 looks an ideal candidate with eight cards this season, the second most for the Black Cats. Crucially it's away from home he does his best (worst) work, picking up six cards in only 14 games. He'll be in the heart of the battle with that Newcastle midfield including Joelinton.

Recommended bets

Back Under 2.75 goals in Newcastle v Sunderland @ 1.79

Back Dan Burn and Noah Sadiki to be shown a card @ 8/1