Opta predicted Liverpool’s clash with Nottingham Forest | OneFootball

Opta Supercomputer Predicts Liverpool Dominance Over Nottingham Forest

Liverpool’s return to Premier League action this weekend brings Nottingham Forest to Anfield, and according to Opta’s latest supercomputer projection, the home side are overwhelming favourites to secure three points.

After a disappointing 2–1 defeat to Manchester City before the international break, Arne Slot’s team find themselves eight points behind leaders Arsenal. Despite a stuttering start to the 2025/26 campaign, there remains quiet confidence within the Liverpool camp that momentum can still swing their way as the season progresses.

Opta Forecast Favouring Liverpool

Opta’s data-driven model has handed Liverpool a 71.1% chance of victory over Nottingham Forest, the highest win probability of any Premier League side in this gameweek. The same model gives Forest only a 12.4% chance of pulling off an upset, while a draw stands at 16.5%.

For Slot, the numbers will be a welcome sign that his system is starting to find its rhythm. Liverpool’s home record remains one of the strongest in the division, and their expected goals (xG) metrics suggest the performances have been better than recent results imply.

Bournemouth, with a 59.3% likelihood of victory over West Ham, are the only other side close to Liverpool in terms of statistical dominance, underlining just how confident Opta’s algorithm is about an Anfield win.

Forest’s Fight Under Dyche

Nottingham Forest’s season has already been eventful. Following a poor opening stretch, the club parted ways with their previous manager and turned to Sean Dyche, hoping the experienced coach could steady the ship.

Dyche’s pragmatic approach has yielded early returns — four points from their last two fixtures, including a victory over Leeds United and a draw with Manchester United. That small unbeaten run has helped ease the pressure, but the upcoming trip to Merseyside represents their toughest test yet.

Despite Forest’s renewed organisation and defensive discipline under Dyche, Anfield has rarely been a happy hunting ground. The energy of Slot’s pressing system and the home crowd’s intensity often combine to overwhelm visiting sides.

Recent Form and Tactical Trends

Liverpool’s main challenge this term has been consistency. Slot’s side have already shown flashes of brilliance, notably in their 3–0 win over Aston Villa and comeback victory against Tottenham, but lapses in concentration have cost valuable points.

With several key players returning from international duty, rotation could be on the cards. The Dutch coach has emphasised tempo and fluidity in his attacking patterns, with the midfield tasked to control transitions — an area where Forest typically struggle to contain faster, more technically gifted opponents.

Forest, meanwhile, will likely deploy a compact 4-4-2 shape, relying on counter-attacks and set pieces. Dyche’s sides are known for their physicality, but against Liverpool’s high press, retaining possession could prove their undoing.

Head-to-Head and Historical Edge

Liverpool’s dominance in this fixture is well-documented. Out of 122 meetings between the two clubs, the Reds have claimed victory 60 times, with Forest winning 32 and 30 matches ending in draws.

Yet, recent encounters have been more balanced. Their last clash, held at the City Ground, finished 1–1, while Forest managed a shock 1–0 victory at Anfield in September 2024 — their first there in over two decades. Those results will give Dyche’s men a glimmer of belief, though history and form both point to a Liverpool rebound.

As the Reds prepare for this weekend’s contest, the message from Slot will be clear: dominate early, control the tempo, and convert possession into goals. If Opta’s model is to be believed, Liverpool’s title hopes may not be extinguished just yet — provided they take care of business against Nottingham Forest.