Opta Predicts Arsenal v Man City: Back Gyokeres goal in 12/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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Liverpool's flying start to the Premier League season has marked them out as favourites to retain their crown, but both Arsenal and Manchester City have ambitions of dethroning Arne Slot's Reds.

Arsenal have already lost one matchup with a title rival this term, going down 1-0 at Anfield courtesy of a stunning Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick.

City, meanwhile, stumbled to back-to-back defeats prior to the international break, though a comprehensive 3-0 derby victory over Manchester United got Pep Guardiola's side back on track.

After both potential challengers recorded midweek UEFA Champions League victories, they meet at the Emirates Stadium for a game that could already be pivotal for their aspirations.

But who will cap Sunday with a statement result to put Liverpool on notice?

With the help of Opta data, we have picked out the best Bet Builder selections ahead of the game.

Extra rest could give Arsenal the edge against Man City

Man City had Arsenal's number for a long time, edging the Gunners out in tense title races in 2022/23 and 2023/24 and boasting a tremendous head-to-head record against them.

But the tide has started to turn. Arsenal have won two of their last four Premier League meetings with City (drawing the other two), as many victories as they managed in their previous 22 (five draws, 15 defeats).

Arsenal trounced City 5-1 when the sides met at the Emirates in February, and the Gunners now have the chance to win back-to-back league games against them for the first time since December 2015.

City have lost on their last two league visits to Arsenal, which is their longest losing run at the Emirates since 2009 (four in a row). They had only lost twice in their previous 14 visits (seven wins, five draws).

That is reflected in the Betfair Sportsbook match betting, with Arsenal odds-on for victory at 5/6. City are 13/5 to win and 11/5 to earn a point.

Those prices are broadly in line with the Opta supercomputer's predictions. Across 10,000 match simulations, 52.2% went Arsenal's way, 23.4% saw City take three points and 24.4% finished level.

So Arsenal deserve their favourites tag, especially with home advantage, and Mikel Arteta now has the chance to make history against his former mentor Guardiola.

No manager has ever previously gone five league matches unbeaten against Guardiola, and on the Double Chance market, Arsenal are extremely short to avoid defeat at 1/5.

City are 5/6 to earn a win or a draw on the same market, but the scheduling of their midweek match leaves them at a disadvantage and could ward off punters.

Guardiola's team have lost five of their last seven top-flight games after a European outing in midweek (two wins), including that 5-1 loss at the Emirates last term. Their previous five such defeats came over a span of 46 games in five years (27 wins, 14 draws).

They enjoyed a positive start to their Champions League campaign on Thursday, with Erling Haaland and Jeremy Doku scoring in a 2-0 win over 10-man Napoli. Arsenal beat Athletic Bilbao by the same scoreline on Tuesday, with Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard scoring as substitutes.

The Gunners will have had over 48 hours of additional preparation time compared to City, and that might play a part in what is sure to be an intense affair.

Title challengers to remove the handbrake?

Despite there being plenty of reasons for Arsenal optimism, Man City have issued a reminder of their quality over the last week and the short price for a home win may dissuade some.

Arteta's side have earned a reputation for being cautious, relying on their rock-solid defence to lock opposing attacks down.

Arsenal have won their last three league home games, including two this season against Leeds United and Nottingham Forest, by an aggregate score of 9-0. They last won their first three home matches of a season without conceding in 1960, and they are 12/5 to win to nil.

The Gunners are yet to concede a Premier League goal from open play this term, while only Newcastle United (2.1) have allowed fewer expected goals against (xGA) than their 2.4.

But if any team can breach Arsenal's backline, which remains depleted due to the expected absence of William Saliba, it is surely City. Guardiola's side lead the Premier League for expected goals (xG) this season with 8.5, with Arsenal fifth on 6.5.

With both teams already playing catch-up behind Liverpool, neither can really afford to drop more points, and that could make for a more watchable affair.

It should be remembered that five of their last seven meetings have seen goals at both ends, and it is a tempting 4/6 for both teams to net on Sunday.

Arsenal have only failed to score once in their last 15 top-flight matches, dating back to a goalless draw with Forest in February, while City have averaged more goals per Premier League game across 2025 than any other team (2.1, 48 in 23).

A price of 2/9 is available for over 1.5 goals, and over 2.5 - which has been a winning bet in six of the last eight league meetings between the teams - is priced at 3/4.

Gyokeres v Haaland as Scandinavian strikers go head-to-head

If action at both ends is anticipated, it makes sense to look at the big-name strikers leading both attacks.

Any time Haaland is odds-against to find himself on the scoresheet, he is worth a look.

Haaland netted twice in last week's derby rout of Man Utd, and if not for an inexplicable miss moments before his first goal, the Norwegian could have had his second Manchester derby hat-trick.

Having missed out on the Golden Boot to Mohamed Salah last season, Haaland looks determined to make amends in 2025/26.

He leads all Premier League players for goals (five), shots (19), shots on target (eight), xG (5.7) and touches in the opposition penalty area (27) through the first four matchdays, while his ratio of just 68 minutes per goal is the best of any player to net at least twice.

The striker then made Champions League history on Thursday, reaching 50 goals in UEFA's elite club competition in just 49 outings - 13 fewer than any other player (Ruud van Nistelrooy did so in 62).

Haaland also has a strong record against Arsenal. He has four goals in six league games against the Gunners, as well as 19 goals in 20 EPL outings in London overall.

Of all players to play 1,000 or more minutes in away Premier League games in the capital, Haaland has the best minutes-per-goal ratio (one every 93 minutes).

City are also still without Omar Marmoush and Rayan Cherki, leaving Haaland as the clear threat to Arsenal's goal, with Phil Foden and Doku displaying some impressive creative work of late.

A price of 13/8 for Haaland to net any time, then, looks appealing. The striker has opened the scoring in three of City's five games overall this term, and he is 5/1 to do so again.

But Arsenal have found their own Scandinavian scoring machine in Viktor Gyökeres, who has netted three times, with all those goals coming in his two outings at the Emirates. He could become just the second player to net in his first three home matches for the Gunners in the Premier League, after Alexandre Lacazette in 2017.

The Swede has had fewer scoring opportunities than Haaland, only attempting seven shots this season. However, he has been clinical with those chances, posting the fifth-best shot conversion rate in the division (42.9%), with Haaland 14th at 26.3%.

Gyökeres leads the anytime goalscorer betting at 7/5, while it is 4/1 for him to net first.

The continued absence of Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz will mean Arsenal put even more emphasis on their forward, while his fantastic penalty record should also be factored in.

Additionally, Gyökeres scored a hat-trick for Sporting CP in a 4-1 rout of City in the Champions League last season, with two spot-kicks included in that treble.

Since the start of 2022/23, Gyökeres has taken 18 penalties in the Primeira Liga and the Premier League, scoring all 18 - that is the best 100% record among all players from Europe's top 10 leagues. It is 8/5 for a spot-kick to be awarded.

While Gyökeres may be the preferred goalscorer selection, particularly given Arsenal's longer preparation time, Haaland is still likely to fire off several efforts.

Having averaged 3.8 shots per Premier League game this season, Haaland is an enticing 11/10 to record three attempts here, or an even longer 6/4 to get two or more efforts on target, which he has accomplished in three of four league outings in 2025/26.

Gyökeres has attempted at least three shots in both of his home Premier League games with Arsenal, but he is 1/2 to do so again, making Haaland the more attractive play in this particular market.

Punters can also use Betfair's Match Ups markets to pit the Nordic strikers against one another, backing one to outshoot or outscore the other. Match Ups Multis are available, allowing multiple head-to-head player bets to be combined.

Eberechi Eze is third in the anytime goalscorer betting at 2/1, having netted Crystal Palace's winner against City in the FA Cup final in May, though the prospect of Martinelli pushing for a start on the left - or at least a substantial role off the bench - may warrant some caution.

There are six more Arsenal players - Ethan Nwaneri at 9/4, Trossard at 12/5, Noni Madueke at 5/2, plus Martinelli, Mikel Merino and Max Dowman at 11/4 - in the betting before the next City player.

But a price that stands out is the 4/1 available for Foden to get on the scoresheet, after he marked his first start of the season with a derby goal against United last week.

Foden also provided a wonderful assist for Haaland's goal against Napoli, teeing up his header with a scooped pass over the top. The England international created eight chances, the most by a City player in a Champions League match since Kevin De Bruyne against Real Madrid in August 2020 (nine).

Arsenal to continue racking up corners

Arsenal have scored 33 league goals from corners since the start of the 2023/24 season - the most of any team from Europe's top five divisions.

The Gunners were efficient from set-pieces in their first two games of the season, netting three times from six corners against Manchester United and Leeds.

Then Arteta's men racked up eight corners against both Liverpool and Forest, with set-plays clearly offering their best route to goal at Anfield.

Arsenal are 4/7 to have over 4.5 corners, 11/10 for over 5.5 and 2/1 for over 6.5, and the data suggests there could be value in backing Arsenal to maintain that method of attack.

They averaged 6.6 corners per Premier League game last season, with that figure creeping up to 7.4 at the Emirates.

Arsenal had over 5.5 corners in 20 of their 38 games in 2024/25 and over 4.5 corners in 26, so either selection could represent a prudent Bet Builder addition.

City, for their part, averaged 6.7 corners per Premier League game in 2024/25, though that figure has dropped to 4.0 this campaign.

Neither Arsenal nor City can really afford to lose more ground on Liverpool, and if Sunday's match opens up, both selections could attract attention.

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