Paraguay’s Shock Win Over Türkiye Blows Up Group D | OneFootball

Within 90 minutes late Friday night in Santa Clara, Group D was turned upside down. Paraguay, hoping to redeem themselves after a thorough 4-1 drubbing to the USA in their tournament opener, managed to defeat Türkiye by a narrow 1-0 victory late Friday night. With this surprise win, they keep their dreams of making the knockout rounds alive.

Turkish Terror

For the Turks, the match was akin to a slow-moving nightmare. Before the starting whistle, they were full of optimism. A win over Paraguay would set them up for a head-to-head tie with the USA, with a win there securing them the top spot in the group.

That dream started dying after 65 seconds. Spectators were still finding their seats when Atlanta United’s Matías Galarza wound up and rifled a shot from 30+ yards into the lower right corner. It was the fastest goal so far in the World Cup, beating Morocco’s earlier effort from Ismael Saibari against Scotland by seven seconds. And like that match, it was the only goal required.

By the closing whistle, Türkiye officially became the second team eliminated from the Round of 32 (Haiti earned first place earlier today). Remember, many pundits picked Türkiye to win this group, or at least advance.

How it Unfolded

It was the most cynical of victories for Paraguay, as they were forced to play in a low-block after taking the surprise lead. A look at the momentum map shows just how dominant Türkiye was over the entire game. In every attacking statistic, Türkiye was superior:

Momentum map. Türkiye is red. Source: FotMob

Despite being a man up for an entire half, Türkiye simply could not break through Paraguay’s stubborn defense. The hosts blocked five Turkish shots; their keeper Orlando Gill made four saves. Paraguay employed every soccer dark art to delay, obstruct and otherwise disrupt Türkiye’s momentum and rhythm. And it worked. Turkish shots and headers went inexplicably with alarming frequency.

The Red Card

Some of Türkiye’s dominance arose after Paraguay’s Miguel Almíron was spotted on camera talking to a Turkish player with his hand held in front of his mouth. Under a new FIFA law banning this practice, Salvadorian referee Iván Cisneros brandished his red card after consulting the monitor. It was the first red issued under the new law, and a warning to all other players.

Even more damning, Paraguay didn’t look like a team playing a man short. They continued to be aggressive on the counter attack, and actually created better (if fewer) chances in the second half. At times, only 4 or 5 Türkiye players could be spotted on the TV screen when they were on the offensive. Weather was not a factor; the temperature was a comfortable 65 degrees.

How This Impacts Group D

Paraguay’s victory guarantees the United States the top spot, and they will stay on the West Coast and play in Santa Clara stadium on July 1. This is because the US has already defeated Paraguay and Australia, the only two teams that can still get six points, their current total. The first tie-breaker for teams tied on points in head-to-head record, so even a blowout loss to Türkiye in their final match would be moot.

Furthermore, an early clinch gives coach Mauricio Pochettino incredible flexibility in the final group stage game. Christian Pulisic, who missed today’s match due to a calf injury, can now spend more time recovering. For the four players with a yellow card (Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson), they can take the bench and not risk drawing a second – and a one-game suspension. All yellow card counts reset in the Round of 32.

For bench players, the Türkiye game gives them a chance to gain valuable minutes, building confidence and experience. Max Arfsten, Miles Robinson, Cristian Roldan, Brenden Aaronson and Alejandro Zendejas might all get minutes.

So Paraguay’s win benefitted everyone, outside of Türkiye. Their next match against Australia will be a nail-biter.