Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Betting expert Mark Stinchcombe previews all five fixtures | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back for his best bets for the new Premier League season on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back with his regular look at the Saturday fixtures in the Premier League season with picks for every game on Saturday (excluding one)...

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Aston Villa v Newcastle Tip - Home side will not lose!

Aston Villa v NewcastleSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

There will likely be no Alexander Isak for this fixture and seemingly ever again for Newcastle United - their star striker being just 2/5 to move to Liverpool. The Swede scored 23 of their 68 goals last season (34%) and in the four games he missed last season,  Newcastle lost two and drew two, scoring just one goal which was a penalty. Aston Villa have lost Marcus Rashford and Marcus Asencio but they only scored five league goals between them (one penalty). There's the opportunity now for the likes of Donyell Malen, Jacob Ramsey, Leon Bailey, Emi Buendia to start instead plus the new £30M signing of attacker Evann Guessand. Villa won this fixture 4-1 as recently as April with 23 shots to 10, 2.26xG to 1.0xG. Given the prices, we can back them draw no bet at competitive odds.

Brighton v Fulham Tip - Game should deliver goals

Brighton v FulhamSaturday, 15:00

Brighton were the best team in the league last season for Over 2.5 goals matches with 71% of their games seeing 3+ goals. 12 of Fulham's last 18 league games have featured Over 2.5 goals. Last season the Premier League averaged 2.93 goals per-game, which gives us a blanket over price of 1.80 - exactly what we have here - yet we know this isn't an average game with the most prolific team involved. In Fabian Hürzeler debut season these matches finished 2-1 and 3-1.

Sunderland v West Ham Tip - Hammers to be happy

Sunderland v West HamSaturday, 15:00

There was a 13 point gap from 17th to relegation last season, extending the 10 point gap the season before as all three promoted sides were relegated once again. In 2023/24, newly promoted sides lost a combined total of 76 matches out of a possible 114 (67%), while at home, it was a combined total of 37 defeats out of a possible 57 games (65%). Last season newly promoted teams lost a combined total of 79 matches out of a possible 114 (69%), while on home turf it was a combined total of 41 defeats out of a possible 57 games (72%). Put simple, the newly promoted sides are getting worse.

Sunderland are under pressure immediately in front of their fans following their £132M outlay and they actually finished last season with five defeats in their last eight - three at the Stadium of Light without scoring. West Ham's odds of 6/5 suggest they only have a 45% chance of winning. Take the Hammers to spoil the party.

Tottenham v Burnley Tip - No idea so no bet!

Tottenham v BurnleySaturday, 15:00

New manager versus newly promoted side, with a £125M spent versus an outlay of £108M. Can we predict what might happen? No way, no bet.

Wolves v Man City Tip - How to back away side at 8/11

Wolves v Man CitySaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Wolves suffered the departures of both Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri for a combined £96M - a total of 32 goals and assists between them. On the other hand, Manchester City have spent £300M+ since January and ended the season winning eight of their final 12 Premier League games. All but one finished under 4.5 goals and they should have enough to keep this Wolves side quiet, having also beaten them 1-0 as recently as May.

Click here for Ste Tudor's pick of the Premier League opening weekend trends!

Recommended bets

Back Aston Villa +0 v Newcastle @ 1.75

Back Over 2.5 goals in Brighton v Fulham @ 1.80

Back West Ham to beat Sunderland @ 6/5

Back Man City to win and Under 4.5 goals @ 8/11

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