Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Take a chance on a tame Manchester derby at 33/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League MD22 on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every game on Premier League matchday 22 on Saturday...

Man Utd v Man City Tip - Chance another Taylor no show

Man Utd v Man CitySaturday, 12:30Live on Sky Sports

All bets are off with the appointment of a new manager at Manchester United in Michael Carrick. Well, all except the ones at huge odds. It's always difficult to know what you're going to get with a new manager, particularly with Carrick likely to shift from Ruben Amorim's 3-4-2-1 to his preferred 4-2-3-1 and the added complexity of a Manchester derby. A derby that when they met earlier this season featured ZERO cards. ZERO! And who was the referee that day? One Anthony Taylor, who just so happens to be in-charge here again. The stars have once again aligned for a great bet at a huge price.

Chelsea v Brentford Tip - Goals to continue under Rosenior

Chelsea v BrentfordSaturday, 15:00

Just the 11 goals in two games to start Liam Rosensior's Chelsea reign and his first Premier League game in-charge won't be easy against in-form Brentford. The Bess are unbeaten in their last six games with five wins in that period to take them up to the dizzy heights of fifth. So what can we expect? Well more goals. It's now 22 of Chelsea's last 29 games that have seen Over 2.5 goals (76%) and Brentford's matches have seen 61 goals in their 21 leagues games at an average of 3.0 per-game. Keith Andrews men have created the fifth most expected goals yet have only kept five clean sheets at the back all season. A recipe for goals.

Leeds v Fulham Tip - Back goals galore

Leeds v FulhamSaturday, 15:00

Expect an exciting game between two form sides as over the last six games, host Leeds sit eighth and visitors Fulham are up in the lofty heights of third, having won eight of their last 14 matches. With Leeds chalked up at 6/5 to win it should be a competitive game with action at both ends. 12 of Leeds' last 17 games have seen Over 2.5 goals (71%) and for Fulham it's eight of their last 11 that have paid out. 70% of games at Elland Road have seen three or more goals and there should be another this Saturday.

Liverpool v Burnley Tip - Back controlling Reds to get the job done

Liverpool v BurnleySaturday, 15:00

Liverpool seem to have steadied the ship somewhat with an 11 game unbeaten run across all competitions. The foundations seem to be going back to basics and becoming harder to beat, with more control of the game and less gung-ho attacking play. As a result, their five wins against Premier League and Champions League opposition in this period have come with under 3.5 goals and that looks to be the way to go here. Burnley have lost nine of their last 12 league games and are taking the fewest shots in the league, generating the second lowest expected goals. Burnley proved a tough nut for the Reds to crack in the reverse fixture with Liverpool needing an injury time Mo Salah penalty for a 1-0 win.

Sunderland v Crystal Palace Tip - Back a lack of goals

Sunderland v Crystal PalaceSaturday, 15:00

A match here between two out-of-form sides. Sunderland have failed to win any of their last six games in 90 minutes and Crystal Palace haven't managed three points in any of their last six Premier League matches. Generally when teams aren't winning football matches it's because they're not scoring goals and thus the games overall are low scoring. And that's certainly the case here. 14 of Sunderland's last 19 have finished under 2.5 goals (74%) and it's nine of the last 13 for Palace. 67% of Sunderland's matches this season have finished under 2.5 goals - the best in the league - and the reverse fixture finished 0-0.

Tottenham v West Ham Tip - No bet

Tottenham v West HamSaturday, 15:00

A huge match at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium as out-of-form Spurs take on relegation-threatened West Ham. The Hammers have lost five of their last six Premier League games and sit seven points adrift of safety. However, I can't be backing Tottenham at 7/10 given they've only won one of their last six in the league. Six of the last seven meetings between these two at Spurs have seen Over 2.5 goals but at 4/6 this can be left alone with West Ham having failed to score in three of their last five games and doubts surrounding the future of second top goalscorer Lucas Paqueta. Verdict: No bet.

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal Tip - Back another win for the Gunners

Nottingham Forest v ArsenalSaturday, 17:30Live on TNT Sports

Since the last minute defeat to Aston Villa at the beginning of December, Arsenal have won eight of an unbeaten 10 games across all competitions as they look to compete across all four fronts. They face a Nottingham Forest side that have lost six of their last nine Premier League games and were knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship side Wrexham. So how do we make 1/2 Arsenal pay? We back Over 1.5 goals in the match too. Since Sean Dyche arrived, his 13 league matches have seen 35 goals at an average of 2.69 per-game. 13 of Arsenal's last 14 wins have been by a scoreline greater than 1-0.

Stinch's Acca - Back my best bets in a 4-fold at 9/1

Now read Mark O'Haire's best MD22 Premier League Tips

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