Premier League Tips: MD23 best bets involving Man City, Liverpool and Newcastle | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Mark has found three plays for MD23 in the Premier League

Mark O'Haire's latest betting Notebook column for Betfair pinpoints three punting angles from the Betfair Exchange and Sportsbook to follow across MD23 of the Premier League including Newcastle v Aston Villa...

Manchester City v Wolves: Oppose goals at the Etihad

Manchester City v WolvesSaturday 17 January, 15:00

Manchester City have endured a dreadful week with deserving and chastening defeats at Manchester United and Bodo/Glimt. The Citizens have won just twice in their last seven games - one of which was against League One opposition - and Pep Guardiola's team are noticeably struggling in both boxes for form, fitness and inspiration.

Marc Guehi's arrival should prove an element of defensive stability, though in midweek Guardiola said Erling Haaland was exhausted, whilst Phil Foden's gone off the boil. Man City have appeared sluggish and may find Saturday's showdown against rock-bottom Wolves more difficult than the pre-match odds suggest - City are just 1.24 to succeed.

Wolves have improved immeasurably. The Old Gold are unbeaten in four EPL games, keeping shutouts in two of three and over a tough 10-game sample (facing eight top-half teams), the visitors are allowing just 1.20 xG per-game. In five recent trips to Aston Villa, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd and Everton, they've conceded 1.07 npxG per-game.

With that in-mind, backing Wolves with a sizeable handicap start appeals, although a potentially safer option is to oppose goals. Under 3.5 Goals has paid-out in 17 of Man City's past 22 league dates, including eight of 11 at The Etihad, with the same selection providing profit in 15 of Wolves' most recent 17. A repeat pays 1.86.

Bournemouth v Liverpool: VVD a big price to strike

Bournemouth v LiverpoolSaturday 17 January, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Liverpool's impressive 3-0 win at Marseille in midweek has extended the Reds' unbeaten streak to 13 games. Six of those fixtures have ended all-square, including each of the last four in the Premier League, suggesting they're far from last season's all-conquering outfit, though Arne Slot has at least found stability from his side again.

The Merseysiders head to Bournemouth for a tricky test this weekend but rather than focus on the match outcome, I'm eager to support towering Liverpool centre-half Virgil van Dijk to score at 17/2 on Saturday evening. Why? Well, only Burnley have lost a higher percentage of aerial duels than Bournemouth this season.

Dig a little deeper and Bournemouth have conceded a league-high 15 goals from set-pieces this season with the Cherries also facing the fourth-most shots from dead-ball situations. Surprisingly, van Dijk is yet to net in the league this season, but he has struck twice in the Champions League and is avergaing 0.86 shots per-90 this term.

Newcastle v Aston Villa: Time to fade Villa

Newcastle v Aston VillaSunday 24 January, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

The time is right to oppose Aston Villa. Unai Emery's outfit have enjoyed a remarkable campaign thus far though the Villains head to St James' Park without three key midfielders with Boubacar Kamara, Andre Onana and John McGinn all missing this weekend. With Ross Barkley also absent, the visitors are stretched in the centre.

Villa will also have a schedule disadvantage - an away trip at Fenerbahce followed by an away trip to Tyneside three days later leaves little room to rest and prepare. In contrast, Newcastle come into this clash off a home-home schedule having hosted PSV on Wednesday night and so enjoy an extra day recovery without the need to travel.

The Magpies have won each of their last four fixtures against Villa by an aggregate 13-1 and have posted W6-D2-L0 in their past eight home league showdowns. Across all competitions, Eddie Howe's troops have plundered multiple goals in 14 of their last 16 at St James', only failing when welcoming Man City and Arsenal here in that sample.

Bruno Guimaraes will probably miss out, though Newcastle can field almost a first-choice defence, have options in midfield and attack and have claimed 11 victories in their past 15 home outings. The Toon have also won the xG battle in nine of 11 EPL dates here, whilst Villa have lost on the same metric in eight of their 11 away days.