Premier League title race: Do Arsenal or Man City have the easier run-in? | OneFootball

The Premier League is building towards another thrilling run-in, as Arsenal and Manchester City face off in the title race.

After three second-place finishes in a row, Arsenal are bidding to finally end their 22-year wait for a league title under Mikel Arteta.

But they are once again facing competition from Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, who denied them in both 2023 and 2024.

Aston Villa were the closest challengers outside of the top two but Unai Emery’s side have fallen away as the campaign heads towards the final straight.

Arsenal

Played: 30 | Points: 67 | GD: +37

Toughest game? It’s obviously the trip to Manchester City in mid-April, with just five more league games to follow after that. Arsenal have not won at the Etihad since January 2015 and their title challenge went up in smoke there in a 4-1 thrashing in April 2023, before arguably playing too safe in a 0-0 draw in March 2024. Arsenal are in a good position to take a lead to the Etihad, though, and have shown they are made of stronger stuff under Mikel Arteta over the last couple of years: so a draw could be vital this time around.

A potential banana skin? What about Everton? The Toffees admittedly have a woeful record at the Emirates, but they now have the fourth-best away record in the Premier League this season under David Moyes. Plus, it will fall in between the two legs of their Champions League last-16 tie against Bayer Leverkusen, and a week before the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City. This is precisely the type of game where Arsenal can’t afford to take their eye off the ball.

Final straight? On paper, it’s looking good for Arsenal. In May, they will play Fulham and Burnley at home. Mid-table Fulham will likely be in ‘nothing to play for’ territory while 19th-placed Burnley could well be down by the penultimate weekend. West Ham, though, could be fighting for their lives, and Crystal Palace, too, could be dragged into danger by the final game of the season. Still, the Gunners might not have to play a top-half team in May.

Toughest game? Pep Guardiola’s side have to be close to perfect before hosting Arsenal, so the game that now stands out is the away trip to Chelsea. The Blues are unpredictable but have risen to the occasion at home this season, with Joao Pedro now firing and Cole Palmer starting to come into form after an injury-hit campaign.

A potential banana skin? After dropping points at home to Nottingham Forest, how about a trip to another side battling relegation in West Ham? Desperate for points, Nuno Espirito Santo has the Hammers playing much better football, and they have one the Premier League’s in-form attackers in Crysencio Summerville. And, the match will fall in between City’s Champions League last-16 tie against Real Madrid.

Final straight? On paper, much tougher than Arsenal’s. Brentford and Bournemouth could be in the mix for European qualification over the final weeks of the season and City have to play them both in their final three games. Then, they host Aston Villa on the final weekend of the season. Will Unai Emery’s side have Champions League qualification wrapped up by then, or will they face a late fight to get into the top-five? City could do with hoping Villa get to the Europa League final that midweek.

This will be a run-in of two halves, with everything building up to the meeting between Manchester City and Arsenal in mid-April, and then everything that follows. But Arsenal’s fixtures before and then after going to the Etihad look more favourable than City’s, particularly their final stretch.

A crucial factor for both sides will be the other cup competitions and how their squad depth holds up: they will also meet in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday 22 March, and are both also through to the Champions League last-16 and FA Cup fifth round. Arsenal’s Champions League draw is far more favourable, while City face a stacked run of fixtures in March.