Race to the Premier League Heats Up | OneFootball

The race to reach the Premier League has hit the final straight with eight teams still in the hunt for either automatic promotion or the end of season play-offs.

Three teams go up, two automatically, and one via the play-offs, where third plays sixth, fourth plays fifth – the winners of those games going head to head in the final at Wembley on May 23rd.

This weekend sees some tantalising fixtures which could boost or even end some teams’ hopes for this season. We’ll focus on two of the weekend’s best games, starting at St Mary’s as sixth meets eighth.

Southampton vs. Derby County

Southampton are without doubt the Championship’s form team. They have won their last five games, which have included knocking Premier League leaders Arsenal out of the FA Cup and winning away at top of the Championship Coventry City. On Tuesday, they dispatched fellow promotion hopefuls Wrexham 5-1 at the Cas Rae, leapfrogging them into sixth spot. It was a statement of intent for everyone in the promotion race and whisper it quietly, some are even fancying them for top two, unlikely as it seems.

The Saints haven’t lost a game in any competition for 16 matches and have a swagger about them which suggests they’re not about to start now. All this is made more remarkable from where they were just a few short weeks ago. Relegated from the Premier League last season having only just beaten Saturday’s opponents Derby’s worst ever Premier League tally of 11 points, they appointed Will Still in the summer. After only 13 matches, with the Saints just outside the relegation zone and in their worst league position since 2011, Still was sacked.

Eckert’s astounding turnaround

In came Tonda Eckert, 33, the second-youngest manager in the top four tiers of English football, and the transformation has been astounding. Southampton are charging up the table playing an attacking and attractive style of football. 

Centre-half Taylor Harwood-Bellis, who has the most touches and successful passes of any player in the Championship, anchors the team and is the primary ball out, while attacking midfielders Finn Azaz (11 goals) and Léo Scienza (6) have provided much of the driving force.

The arrival of Canadian international striker Cyle Larin on deadline day in January to replace leading goalscorer Adam Armstrong (11 goals) has only bolstered their impressive attacking options. After an unbeaten month, little wonder that goalkeeper Daniel Peretz has been nominated in the EFL’s player of the month. They have a game in hand over those around them, and a play off place is their’s to lose.

Rams on the comeback trail

Eighth-placed Derby County will go to St Mary’s knowing that defeat will almost certainly signal the end of their play off ambitions with only four games to play. Even if Hull, currently fifth, lose at Sheffield United, they’d remain five points above the Rams. And don’t forget Wrexham, who are sandwiched in between sitting in seventh and chasing a record fourth straight promotion.

Derby go into the game with their front line ravaged by injury and ineligibility. But win or lose, it’s been an excellent season for John Eustace’s team and one which shows the club is well on the way back from the dark days of only four years ago.

Administration

In season 2021/22, Derby were docked 21 points by the EFL for accountancy irregularities and for falling into administration. Managed by Wayne Rooney, they were relegated to League 1 and played in the third tier of English football for the first time since the mid-1980s.

It took two attempts to get promoted back to the Championship, and last season the Rams finished just outside the relegation zone. Eustace was appointed in February 2025 and within a year has the team knocking on the door of a return to the Premier League.

Heartbreak for Agyemang

Their frontline for much of the season has included: Rhian Brewster, Ben Brereton Diaz and Patrick Agyemang. None will feature on Saturday. Brewster’s season was recently ended with a knee injury, Brereton Diaz is on loan from Southampton (making him ineligible), and USA international striker Agyemang suffered a serious Achilles tendon injury in the victory over Stoke City last weekend.

That injury not only ended his season, but rules him out of the World Cup. It’s terrible luck for a player who has hit 11 goals in his first season outside the USA and become a pivotal part of the team.

Derby’s third choice goalkeeper Richard O’Donnell will continue his run of games after injuries to both first and second choice, while 11-goal Carlton Morris’ recent return to the starting line-up up front after a long injury break is good timing. Much on Saturday will depend on the outstanding form of centre half Matt Clarke and the discipline of midfield duo David Ozoh and captain Lewis Travis.

Prediction

Southampton will fancy themselves against an injury-hit Derby, who are drinking in the last chance saloon and know that even a point, while laudable, might not be enough. It’s been an impressive season for the Rams, but with the form the Saints are in, I expect them to go marching on with all three points.

Norwich City v Ipswich Town

The East Anglia derby is feisty at the best of times, but with so much riding on it this season, it could be the tastiest fixture of the weekend.

Norwich sit just behind Southampton and leaders Coventry City in the Championship form table but may have left their play off charge too late. Nonetheless, sitting 9th in the table with four wins and a draw from their last six, they will pose possibly Ipswich’s toughest test of the season and know that only a win will do to keep their faint hopes alive.

But the Tractor Boys are also in good form and have the carrot of automatic promotion tantalizingly in reach. Second and level on points with Middleborough, crucially they have played two games less that Boro, as well as Hull in fourth and Millwall in fifth. This should be a cracker!

On the charge

Much like Southampton, Norwich got off to a poor start and in November replaced their manager, with Liam Manning departing and Philip Clement arriving. The change has been stark. Since then the Canaries have collected 49 points – automatic promotion form across a season and only just less than Champions-elect Coventry.

Jovon Makama leads the goalscoring charts with 10 but broke a bone in his foot in February and is still recovering. Mathias Kvistgaarden has been hit and miss since his move and was substituted at half time in Monday’s excellent win away at Millwall.

Mohamed Toure came on for him and bagged both goals so might get the nod against Ipswich, while the likes of Kenny McLean, Anid Ben Slimane and Ali Ahmed provide plenty of ammunition.

Ipswich so close

They can feel it; they can taste it. Ipswich are so close to returning to the Premier League less than a year after being relegated from it. They’ve been more pragmatic this season compared to the most swashbuckling style that saw them promoted two years ago, but remain just as dangerous going forward. They also have the meanest defense in the Championship having only let in on average one goal a game.

Jack Clarke (14 goals) and former Canary Marcelino Núñez (8 assists) lead the team’s scoring and assist charts, but Ipswich have threats all over the pitch and when they run at you, it’s hard to know where they’re coming from.

Leif Davis, Anis Mehmeti and Azor Matusiwa and George Hirst are quality staples while Dara O’Shea has been their most consistent defender. Boss Kieron McKenna has shown again he has what it takes to manage in this league.

Prediction

With Norwich fans dreaming they can still sneak into the play-offs, and Ipswich supporters knowing every points nudges them closer to the Premier League, this the most important East Anglia derby since the two teams met in the 2015 Championship play-off semi-finals.

Ipswich have not collected three points at their fiercest rivals’ home since 2006 but won the home tie comfortably and will be hoping for a first league double in over three decades.

Both are in form, both have plenty to play for – and I’m not sure they will be separated in the Carrow Road cauldron, so am going for a 1-1 draw.

Coventry on the Brink

Coventry City will need just one more point to seal their return to the Premier League after a 25-year absence. They’re playing last place-and-already-relegated Sheffield Wednesday, who only have one win this season. It’s almost a sure thing.

Millwall and Middlesborough both play teams fighting to stay in the league. The Lions travel to West Brom on Friday night while Boro entertain Portsmouth on Saturday. Hull City have a tricky trip to Sheffield United.