Ranking the 8 EFL League Two clubs most likely to be relegated in 2026/27 | OneFootball

The transfer window is not yet open, but which League Two clubs are in the weakest position ahead of next season?

The 2025-26 EFL play-offs have only just ended, but attentions are now turning to how the three divisions will look for the following campaign, with all 72 clubs locked in.

Hull City, Bolton Wanderers and Notts County were the lucky winners at Wembley over the course of the late May Bank Holiday weekend, with the latter's win over Salford City taking them into League One, and consigning the Ammies to another year in League Two.

The fourth tier of English football in recent years has seen the gap close somewhat between there and the National League, with teams coming up from non-league and doing rather well - Wrexham, Notts County, Chesterfield, the list goes on.

That will worry a number of clubs ahead of 2026-27, who may well be looking down rather than up - let's take a look at EIGHT teams who should be most concerned about dropping into the National League, ranked from least likely to most likely.

8 ? ? Shrewsbury Town

Shrewsbury Town’s 10-year stay in League One ended in 2025 with somewhat of a whimper.

Salop finished bottom of the pile in 2024-25 having gone through three managers - Paul Hurst was sacked in November, his replacement Gareth Ainsworth lasted just a few months before moving down a division to join Gillingham, and Michael Appleton could not keep the Shropshire outfit up.

For much of 2025-26, it looked like Shrewsbury might be suffering back-to-back relegations, much like Carlisle United recently did, but the sacking of Appleton in January proved to be the catalyst for a turnaround in form, led by his successor in the form of Brackley Town boss Gavin Cowan.

After his first two matches in charge brought just a point, Cowan then led Town to five wins on the spin in February, pushing the club up to 17th in the table, and whilst form was indifferent after that streak, with just 11 points won out of a possible 36, a 19th-placed finish was secure.

What happens next season for Shrewsbury though is anyone's guess - a number of senior players have departed on frees such as John Marquis, Anthony Scully and Mal Benning, leaving Cowan with a thin squad ahead of a summer of much-needed recruitment.

7 ? ? Fleetwood Town

The rise of Fleetwood Town from the depths of the North West non-league system to the EFL was a rapid one, and they reached their highest points in 2017 and 2020 when reaching the League One play-off semi-finals - only to be defeated at that stage both times.

Could that be the Cod Army's peak for good though? The Fylde coast outfit were funded by Andy Pilley throughout their journey, but he was sentenced to 13 years in jail in 2023, and it appears to be no coincidence that since then, Town have faltered.

Relegated from League One in 2024, Fleetwood's fourth tier finishes of 14th and 15th the last two seasons have been average at best, and after Pete Wild's time at Highbury failed to work out, chairman Jamie Pilley - son of the aforementioned Andy - turned to first-team coach Matt Lawlor for his first job as a manager.

The 37-year-old's inexperience in the dugout may not be the right answer ahead of next season though - he won just six of his 20 games in charge both as a caretaker and full-time boss last season, and depending what recruitment Fleetwood do this summer, the Lancashire club may not be able to propel themselves back up towards the top half.

6 ? ? Cheltenham Town

It didn't take long for Cheltenham Town to make a managerial change last season, with Michael Flynn's campaign lasting less than two months before the axe came his way.

The Robins hierarchy turned to a familiar face though in Steve Cotterill, who had already managed the club between 1997 and 2002 earlier in his coaching career, and chairman Mike Garlick also knew him from their time at Burnley.

Cheltenham were rooted to the foot of League Two when Cotterill took over, having lost eight of their first 10 fixtures, including a 7-1 demolition at the hands of Grimsby Town, but results quickly improved under the new manager, and he was able to lead them to safety with ease, finishing in 18th position with 52 points, and Cotterill himself was handed the Freedom of the Borough after the season concluded.

What lies ahead for 2026-27 though could be tougher. Their talisman of last season in Isaac Hutchinson has headed back to Bristol Rovers following the conclusion of his loan deal at Whaddon Road, and his 15 league goals are going to be incredibly tough to replace from midfield, whilst winger Jordan Thomas has also departed on a free transfer - he too will be a huge miss in the final third.

5 ? ? Exeter City

Exeter City's League One fate went down to the final day of the season, but after four years in the third tier, the Devon club's time was up.

Having accumulated three respectable mid-table finishes since their 2022 promotion, time ran out for the Grecians, and their cause wasn't helped in February when manager Gary Caldwell upped sticks and returned to Wigan Athletic.

At that point, City were 14th in the League One table, but their form would start to falter, and the interim hiring of former manager Matt Taylor to try and arrest the slide didn't work - between him and Dan Green's interim management prior to his return to St James Park, just one win was picked up in 16 matches, and just 10 points from a possible 48, and that led to Exeter being one of the four teams being relegated.

Financial issues late on last season came to light, and although City chairman Laurence Overend confirmed in March that the Grecians will be able to start the 2026-27 season, what squad Taylor will have to work with is anyone's guess.

Some key players have departed the club as per the retained list, notably wing-back Ilmari Niskanen, having racked up 12 League One assists last season, the likes of Jack Aitchson and Josh Magennis who appeared regularly, whilst City will not have quality loanees such as Joe Whitworth and Ethan Brierley to rely on - it all points towards a bit of a struggle in League Two next season.

4 ? ? Accrington Stanley

One factor that Accrington Stanley have to their advantage over other sides potentially staring towards a relegation battle in the 2026/27 campaign is managerial stability, with former first-team coach John Doolan having been in place at the Wham Stadium for more than two years.

That's not to say that the Liverpudlian's first senior managerial gig has been a roaring success, though. Stanley, who were finishing above the likes of Charlton Athletic and Lincoln City and just below Ipswich Town in League One as recently as 2022, have spent the last few years re-familiarising themselves with positions in mid-table or lower at fourth-tier level.

They did secure their highest league finish under Doolan last time out by concluding the campaign in 15th, but it's set to be an even tougher season next term and Stanley's wretched run of just win from their remaining 15 matches leaves them with little momentum and plenty to ponder ahead of August.

3 ? ? Tranmere Rovers

As for Tranmere Rovers, they are now heading into next season under new management following the recent appointment of experienced taskmaster Darrell Clarke - which could really go one of two ways at Prenton Park.

The 48-year-old has no shortage of experience, having already managed close to 700 games in the dugout, and knows exactly what it takes to get out of this division. He was, however, relieved of his duties with League Two rivals Bristol Rovers in December of last year after suffering ten successive defeats, which begs the question of what will come of his return to management at Tranmere.

The Super White Army have recorded consecutive finishes of 20th and 21st, only dodging relegation on the final day this time out and going through two separate managers in Andy Crosby and Pete Wild.

Clarke faces an immediate rebuilding process on Merseyside following the release of no fewer than 12 players at the end of their contracts with the club - including Omari Patrick - but Tranmere have been drifting down the table for some time and it's hard to see the rot stopping, with hopes of avoiding a return to the National League likely to be pinned on impressive 22-year-old forward Charlie Whittaker owing to his haul of 12 goals and four assists in 25/26, should he stay put.

2 ? ? Crawley Town

It was a similar story for Crawley Town, who themselves remained in League Two by a single point on matchday 46 despite only dropping down from the third-tier in May of last year and faced a wave of managerial instability in a season which the Red Devils faithful will be all-too-eager to forget about.

Scott Lindsay, having formerly taken Crawley up to League One before leaving for MK Dons, was dismissed in March in the wake of a 10-match winless run, with ex-Derby County and Turkish international forward Colin Kazim-Richards taking his place in a rather left-field appointment,

Kazim-Richards ultimately completed the task at hand by narrowly retaining the Sussex-based outfit's League Two status by winning three, drawing three and losing just two of his seven games in charge at the back-end of the season.

However, it wasn't exactly done in supremely-convincing fashion either and that, coupled with Crawley's decline in recent seasons and the loss of top scorer Harry McKirdy - in spite of the controversy which seems to follow the divisive but talented forward around - means that you've got to wonder how much progress Kazim-Richards can really make.

Broadfield Stadium has not hosted non-league football since 2011, although drastic improvement will be required to avoid a relegation battle in 26/27 and the odds are stacked against the Red Devils.

1 ? ? Newport County

Lastly, one must ponder when Newport County's luck will finally run out following a series of 'Great Escapes', which have seen the Welsh outfit routinely maneuver their way out of relegation from League Two with late-season runs while operating on a minimal budget.

In the last two seasons, the Exiles have finished seven and four points above the drop zone respectively. A run of three wins from their remaining four matches saw County pull away from danger and complete yet another turnaround, this time under the unexpected tuition of former Leicester City title-winner Christian Fuchs, and aided by the form of star winger Bobby Kamwa.

The talented ex-Burton Albion forward's quality shone through with a number of clutch moments in the term's twilight, but he's soon to find himself out of contract and that situation has not yet been resolved.

Kamwa aside, there's a dearth of real quality at Rodney Parade, a drastically-young squad perhaps ill-equipped for the merciless realities of a League Two relegation dogfight and, as mentioned, no real investment to speak of in the market as Newport continue to slide down the table each year.

Newport have continually punched above the odds, but drastic change both on and off-the-pitch is needed to prevent it all from catching up with Fuchs' side.