Saturday Premier League Tips: Back both teams to score at Leicester and Aston Villa and goals at Craven Cottage | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

Leicester City v Arsenal (Saturday, 12:30)

Both sides come into this with plenty to play for. After Liverpool dropped two points away to Everton on Wednesday night, Arsenal have the chance to cut the gap from seven points down to four before Liverpool play again on Sunday in the race for the title. Following Wolves' win against Aston Villa, Leicester dropped into the relegation zone and are now two points from safety. It's difficult to see how the home side get something here when you consider Arsenal are undefeated in their last 14 matches and Leicester have lost eight of their last nine matches in the Premier League, conceding at least two goals in nine of their last 10, but Arsenal do have some injury issues to key players and Ruud van Nistelrooy's Foxes may see this as opportunity to get something.

The bet I like here at the odds is Both Teams to Score at 9/10. Thirteen of Arsenal's last 20 league games have seen neither side keep a clean sheet (65%), including six of their last seven away from home. For Leicester, 16 of their 24 matches this season have seen both teams score (67%) and this match should hold no fear for them after already scoring twice against Arsenal at the Emirates this season.

Aston Villa v Ipswich (Saturday, 15:00)

Four straight defeats for Ipswich coupled with Wolves' victory last time out against this weekend's opponents in Aston Villa, means the Tractor Boys remain deep in trouble in 19th and three points adrift of safety. They've won just three of 24 games this season with the issue coming from their defence, or lack of. They possess the fourth worst defence having conceded 49 goals at an average of 2.04 per-game. It should come as no surprise when they are conceding 15 shots-per-game and the second most expected goals. In fact, they could have conceded even more with their xG against at 54.87 (+5.87). One thing they have got going for them is their ability to get on the scoresheet, particularly away from home. They've scored in eight of their 11 away games but they've also conceded in all eight meaning both teams to score bets have landed in 73% of their away games.

Aston Villa are another side with defensive issues. Despite sitting eighth in the table and only six points off fourth and a return to Champions League football, they possess only the 12th best defensive record with 37 goals shipped in their 24 games (1.54 per-game). They've kept just three clean sheets all season which has seen 16 matches record both teams to score winners (67%). At home that success rate increases to 75% with nine of 12 games seeing no clean sheets. Over 2.5 goals is only 4/7 yet both teams to score is a huge 4/5 in-comparison. The reverse fixture finished 2-2 yet 1-1 or better will be enough for another winner here.

Fulham v Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 15:00)

Nottingham Forest's excellent season is still showing no signs of slowing down. They won 7-0 at home to Brighton last time out meaning they've won eight of their last 10 games to cement their position in the top four. They're now just 7/4 to finish in the Champions League places and only 1/5 for a top six finish. They've a six point cushion on fifth place Man City and a seven point gap on seventh place Bournemouth.

Fulham are also having a good season sat in ninth but it could be even higher if they finished more of their chances. Based on expected points they rank fourth in the league meaning they're the third biggest underachievers in the league. Despite this, they come into this match in good scoring form having bagged two or more goals in six of their last seven matches in the league. This has seen seven of their last 11 matches go over 2.5 goals and Craven Cottage has been a haven for goals this season. Eight of their 12 home games have seen three or more goals (67%).

Nottingham Forest's great season has been built on their strong defence but they're overachieving defensively by 5.28 goals based on xG against and even so 11 of their last 16 matches have seen over 2.5 goals winners (69%). Both teams to score is shorter than 4/5 but over 2.5 goals looks a much better bet, especially priced as the underdog at 1/1. This approach is encapsulated by Forest's last two games where they've won 7-0 and lost 5-0!

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