Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals, goals, goals at Palace, West Ham and Villa | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

Betfair Saturday Football Superboost

Two forwards in form are the focus of Saturday's Betfair football superboost. Manchester City's Marmoush will give Everton's defenders plenty to think about while West Ham's Jarrod Bowen should be be a handful for Southampton.

Between them Marmoush and Bowen have had 18 shots on target in their last five matches. The price on them each having one or more on Saturday has been boosted from 1/2 to 1/1.

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Crystal Palace v Bournemouth (15:00)

Premier League form side Crystal Palace came back down to earth with a bump after they dared to inflict more pain on Manchester City by taking a 2-0 lead after just 21 minutes. Alas City found their shooting boots and came back to win 5-2.

I was quite pleased with my decision-making in that match as I outlined a reasonable case for possibly wanting to oppose City in some way, but there was too much risk involved at the odds with this still being a side that had won six of the last seven titles. And I feel like the match very much played out in that manner. They then got thumped 5-0 at Newcastle despite winning the expected goals battle!

What it does mean is more matches involving Palace where there were goals, goals, goals. We've had success recently backing Overs in their games with our last three bets winning and see no reason to desert this profitable angle at the prices. Indeed seven of their last nine games at home have seen Over 2.5 goals winners and it's no surprise with the quality they have going forward having scored two or more goals in eight of their last twelve home and away combined.

Bournemouth meanwhile got back on track with their win on Monday night against Fulham having failed to win any of their previous six. It took them up into eighth and just six points off Chelsea and Aston Villa who are trying to juggle matches across multiple competitions. Indeed Chelsea have just five wins in their last 16 games and with a tough looking run-in, there's plenty of motivation for the Cherries to end the season on a high.

In terms of Over 2.5 goals for Bournemouth, 11 of their last 16 games have seen three or more goals (69%) but away from home it's been even more productive with their last 11 all seeing winners and a strike rate of 81% for the season (13 of 16). It's another easy decision to back Over 2.5 goals.

West Ham v Southampton (15:00)

What did we learn about Southampton under new management, albeit temporary, last weekend in their 3-0 loss to Aston Villa? Not much other than that they are still rubbish and still could be the worst ever Premier League team. They had just 40% possession (50% seasonal average), conceded 25 shots (17.7 per-game seasonal average) and were so clumsy they picked up three yellows (2.63 per-game seasonal average) including giving away two missed penalties. So I feel I was vindicated  assessing this Saints side last weekend on the season to date and not giving them any grace for switching managers.

So again it's the same approach and that's to back Over 2.5 goals. Defensively the Saints are awful having conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight matches and even more alarming in 10 of their last 13 they've shipped three or more goals - they're capable of landing this bet by themselves given their porous defence. Ultimately it means 13 of their last 14 games have been Over 2.5 goals winners.

West Ham's games are not quite as goal heavy but they've scored 10 goals in just four games against the bottom seven at the London Stadium where they've kept just two clean sheets in 16 games all season.

Aston Villa v Newcastle (17:30)

This looks a great fixture for Saturday night football between two sides in great form fighting it out for Champions League football. Aston Villa have won their last eight games across all competitions domestically whilst Newcastle, flying on the crest of their League Cup success, have won 12 of their last 17 Premier League games. Goals win games and both these sides matches have featured plenty. It should come as no surprise when we're seeing extreme stats such as Villa having only kept two clean sheets at home all season and Newcastle having scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 19 games.

So it's once again another Over 2.5 goals bets and why not at the odds when you consider the following. 69% of Villa's games this season have seen three or more goals including six of their last seven. For the Toon Army, a whopping 16 of their last 19 games have seen this bet win (84%). And generally this is a goal heavy match-up. The last five meetings have all seen Over 2.5 goals with 20 goals at an average of 4.0 per-game. The last four have been Unai Emery v Eddie Howe clashes that have also averaged 4.0 goals per-game. Hopefully it's once again raining goals in the Premier League this weekend.

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