Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Cagliari – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

AC Milan are back in Serie A action after their excursion to the Middle East as they take on Cagliari at San Siro on Saturday night.

Milan will return home with silverware to display after they beat Juventus and Inter to win the Supercoppa Italiana in Saudi Arabia, meaning the new coach Sergio Conceicao has a trophy – the club’s 50th – after just two games in charge.

However, Conceicao also admitted in his pre-match press conference that the Super Cup is already in the past in his mind and that his thoughts are fully on facing Cagliari, to keep the good run going domestically.

Game date: Sunday, December 29 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Matteo Marchetti (VAR: Di Paolo)

Team news

As mentioned, the Conceicao era could hardly have started any better for Milan. Not only did they win the first trophy on offer this season but they did so by beating their two main rivals, coming from behind in both games and beating Inter in the 93rd minute after being 2-0 down.

However, the celebrations will stop as soon as the whistle blows on Saturday because there is a job to do. Milan know this all too well given that they drew 3-3 with Cagliari immediately after the 3-1 win over Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Focus will have to remain at a maximum and Conceicao has stressed this further by altering the pre-match routine, making the squad sleep at Milanello the night before the game and training on the San Siro pitch the day before.

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In terms of injury news, there were two absences already known. Alessandro Florenzi is still recovering from an operation, while Samuel Chukwueze is likely to be out for a few more weeks yet after a quite serious muscle injury,

In his presser, Conceicao also confirmed that Ruben Loftus-Cheek has suffered a relapse of the flexor problem that has troubled him this season. He will be re-evaluated in around a week, so he could miss a few games.

Emerson Royal was carded in Milan’s 2-1 win over Juventus on Friday night and will thus miss the Cagliari game, as per the regulations of the Supercoppa. The ban is applied to the next league match so he was still be available for the final against the Nerazzurri.

According to the latest reports doing the rounds, Conceicao is likely to stick with playing a 4-2-3-1 system as he did from the start in both of the games out in Riyadh, before tweaking the system during the game.

Mike Maignan will be in goal with Fikayo Tomori, Malick Thiaw and Theo Hernandez almost certain of a place in the back four. The right-back spot is the big doubt, with Alex Jimenez battling Davide Calabria, given Emerson’s suspension.

The midfield double pivot is likely to be Youssouf Fofana – who celebrates his 26th birthday on Friday – and Yunus Musah. Tijjani Reijnders will therefore be in a more advanced role.

Christian Pulisic returns to being the right winger after starting on the left against Inter, with Rafael Leao back in the line-up after returning to full fitness. They will flank Alvaro Morata, the centre-forward.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Jimenez, Tomori, Thiaw, Theo; Fofana, Musah; Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao; Morata.

Photo by Yasser Bakhsh/Getty Images

The opponents

During our preview for the first meeting of the season we recapped how the summer went for Cagliari, including the transfer business that they did and how they had started the season under Davide Nicola.

The league table once again looks a tad daunting for the Sardinians, as they sit just one place above the relegation zone at the midway point o of the campaign.

They have won just four of their opening 19 games, drawing five and losing 10. Their goal difference is -14 having scored 18 and let in 32, and they are only outside the bottom three because of that, with Lecce level on 17 points but with a -20 GD.

The last five games in the league tell a story: Cagliari lost to Fiorentina and Atalanta 1-0, then Venezia 2-1 and Inter 3-0, but then emerged 2-1 victors away at bottom-placed side Monza to keep their heads above water.

What makes things more complicated for Nicola, who praised Milan in his pre-match press conference, is that there are some injury issues. Star forward Zito Luvumbo is sidelined, while defender Yerry Mina is a doubt with an ankle sprain, but did train on Friday.

Jake Jankto has been battling flu and Kingstone Mutandwa has a knee issue. Giuseppe Ciocci missed the last game with a shoulder problem too.

Cagliari have already done some January business with Simone Scuffet heading to Napoli in a swap deal which saw them get goalkeeper Elia Caprile in return, and he could well get his first start in the Rossoblu.

The latest suggestions are that Cagliari will play a four-man defence which includes Gabriele Zappa who scored twice against Milan in the return game and the veteran Luperto. Zortea will come up against Theo Hernandez on the right, who he has an ‘obsession’ with by his own admission.

As Sportsmole state, Roberto Piccoli’s 18 Serie A goals have remarkably come against 18 different teams, but he has yet to score against Milan in 387 minutes of trying.

Predicted Cagliari XI (4-4-1-1): Caprile; Zappa, Mina, Luperto, Obert; Zortea, Adopo, Makoumbou, Augello; Viola; Piccoli.

Head to head

Milan have played against Cagliari 92 times in their 125-year history, with 54 of the games being wins and only nine defeats, meaning 29 draws.

Last season the Rossoneri actually beat their opponents from Sardinia three times. A 3-1 victory away from home in the league was followed by a 4-1 Coppa Italia victory and then a 5-1 home Serie A win in May.

Earlier this season the two sides played out a thriller on the island. Zortea gave Cagliari the lead then Leao scored a brace to turn things around. Zappa equalised, Abraham netted to make it 3-2 and then Zappa bagged again right at the end to secure a share of the spoils.

Milan have lost just one competitive game against Cagliari since October 1998, which was a 2-1 league defeat in 2017.

Key stats and facts

➤ Milan are unbeaten in their last 13 games against Cagliari in Serie A (W10 D3); following a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture however, the Rossoneri could fail to beat the Rossoblù home and away in a single Serie A season for the first time since 1999/2000 (two draws in that case).

➤ In the 2000s, Milan faced Cagliari at home 18 times in Serie A (46 goals scored, 11 conceded), winning on 17 occasions; against no other team have the Rossoneri achieved more successes at the San Siro in this period of the competition (17 also against Lazio).

➤ Cagliari, who beat Monza in their last league match, have not won two games in a row in Serie A since March 2024; furthermore, on the last two occasions they’ve won a game in the competition, they’ve followed it up with a defeat in the next match.

➤ Milan have drawn three of their last four home league games, including the last two: the Rossoneri have not collected three consecutive home draws in Serie A since January 2020.

➤ Sergio Conceição won his first two matches as Milan coach (both in the Supercoppa Italiana): the last manager to win his first three games in charge of the club was Arrigo Sacchi in August 1987.

➤ Sérgio Conceição will be the second Portuguese coach in history to lead Milan in Serie A, after Paulo Fonseca; none of the last two managers have won their first Serie A game in charge of Milan, the last to do so was Cristian Brocchi in April 2016 (1-0 vs Sampdoria).

➤ In the last two matches played in the Super Cup, Milan came from behind to win: in the entire first part of the season, considering all competitions, the Rossoneri had obtained three draws and never a victory from this situation.

➤ Cagliari continue to concede goals from set piece situations: 14 of the 32 goals they have conceded in Serie A this season have come from set pieces, 44%; both negative records in the competition this term.

➤ Cagliari are one of Rafael Leão’s two favorite opponents in Serie A (5 goals, also against Lecce): the Portuguese forward has scored in both of his last two home league games against the Rossoblü.

➤ Roberto Piccoli has scored 18 goals in Serie A with those coming against 18 different teams: he has however never scored against Milan in the competition (7 apps – 387 minutes) – only against Lazio (418) has he had played more minutes in Serie A without finding the back of the net.

Ones to watch

Alex Jimenez has been fantastic recently, and with him expected to start at right back, he has the chance to make the position his own. Despite Emerson Royal’s arrival, many still believe the area needs strengthening so the Spaniard has a huge opportunity.

For us, the second thing to watch in this game is the midfield. Milan struggled with Tijjani Reijnders in a more advanced position against Verona, and with Cagliari likely to play a very similar, hard-to-break-down style, the Rossoneri could miss Reijnders’ creative ability from deep.

Photo by AC Milan

Picking positions of strength in the opposition’s team is quite difficult admittedly. However, Zortea has presented an easy one. With the winger stating he has an obsession with Theo, the Frenchman could be in for a tough game, let’s see how that obsession fares though.

Then, Yerry Mina feels like a threat waiting to be used. The Colombian defender has been rather here and there in recent years, but he can still be a nightmare to play against defensively and offensively, so the Rossoneri must be cautious and aware of his prowess.

Prediction

After spirited and entertaining comeback wins to begin Conceicao’s tenure, we wouldn’t mind this being a much more controlled and commanding win. A clean sheet has to be the aim, even if Cagliari’s low block might pose some issues at the other end.

AC Milan 2-0 Cagliari