Serie A preview: Empoli vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·7 febbraio 2025

Serie A preview: Empoli vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan switch back to league action on Saturday evening as they make the trip to the Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli.

Milan are on somewhat of a high compared at least relative to what has been a difficult season domestically, with a busy end to the winter window followed up by a comfortable 3-1 win over Roma in the Coppa Italia on Wednesday night.

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Sergio Conceicao did not do a press conference before the game, but after the midweek cup win he spoke of there still being many things to work on for his side, with consistency still likely to be the number one thing he is searching for.

Game date: Saturday, February 8 Kick-off time: 18:00 (CET) Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani Referee: Luca Pairetto (VAR: Serra)

Team news

As mentioned, Milan looked perhaps their most convincing so far under Conceicao during the 3-1 Coppa Italia triumph over Roma even if they were shaky at the back at times once again.

Tammy Abraham scoring a brace against his parent club is something that will hopefully give him some confidence, while Santiago Gimenez set up Joao Felix for the third goal off the bench so the new signings have started well too.

Fiorentina’s 3-0 win over Inter on Thursday night is a reminder though that Milan simply cannot afford to drop many more points in the league when it comes to the race for the Champions League places, especially against – with respect to Empoli – the lower-ranking sides.

In terms of injury news, the four absentees who remain from the last game are Alessandro Florenzi, Emerson Royal, Warren Bondo and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. Some positive news came regarding the latter two though, who should soon resume group training and are targeting the Verona game.

Looking at the lineup itself, it seems Conceicao will again continue with the 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 shape that worked so well against Roma in midweek, and there are few changes expected. After all, with such a performance, why should you revert?

Mike Maignan, to no shock, will start in goal, whilst Kyle Walker, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic and Theo Hernandez should make up the back four. However, the central pair could be exchanged for one or both of Malick Thiaw or Matteo Gabbia.

In midfield though, there are seemingly no chances of any swaps – Yunus Musah, Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders are expected to continue together. Though, Conceicao could opt to give Reijnders a break…

The most amount of doubt concerns the front three. Christian Pulisic and a returning Rafael Leao could feature on the wings, but after the Portuguese’s midweek absence, Pulisic may be rested. Up front, Tammy Abraham and Santiago Gimenez are battling for the spot, though Gimenez is winning currently.

Predicted Milan XI (4-4-2): Maignan; Walker, Gabbia, Thiaw, Hernandez; Sottil, Musah, Fofana, Pulisic; Abraham, Joao Felix.

The opponents

Since the 3-0 win in November, things have been rather bleak for Empoli. A win against Verona at the start of December is the Azzurri’s only three-point collection since even before that game at San Siro, and with only two points picked up aside from that win, it is a harrowing position to be in.

However, Roberto D’Aversa’s side are somehow not involved in the relegation zone just yet, sitting in 16th, but this could change very quickly with the bottom of the division all entwined in a cat-and-mouse chase.

In January, the side were not too active in their bid to stay up this season, adding 33-year-old Marco Silvestri and Christian Kouame to an already lacking squad, though it’ll be hoped that the Ivorian can tap into some better form, whilst Silvestri can add to the group.

Despite the lack of points picked up, D’Aversa’s side have managed to score goals regularly which comes as a shock – even scoring against Inter, Bolgona and Juventus in their past three games, so it is not a free pass by any means.

Head to head

AC Milan have played 37 competitive matches against Empoli in their 125-year history, with a favourable record of 22 wins, 11 draws and four defeats.

Last season the Rossoneri ran out comfortable winners away from home in the first meeting with Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Olivier Giroud and Chaka Traore all netting in a 3-0 victory. In the game at San Siro, Christian Pulisic scored the only goal of the game 40 minutes in.

The two sides met back on November 30 this season with Milan again emerging 3-0 victors thanks to Alvaro Morata’s opener and a brace from Tijjani Reijnders.

The last time Milan lost to the Azzurri was in the 2016-17 season (1-2, at San Siro). Before that, it was all the way back in October 2007.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan have won seven of their last eight Serie A games against Empoli (D1), scoring 18 goals in the process (2.3 on average) and conceding only three times.

➤ Milan have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four league games against Empoli; only against Pisa do they have a longer active streak of consecutive clean sheets in Serie A (five between 1988 and 1991).

➤ Milan are the team against which Empoli have played the most home games in Serie A without ever winning (P16 D7 L9). Meanwhile only against SPAL (19) have the Rossoneri played more away matches without ever losing in the top-flight than against the Tuscans (16).

➤ Across the last eight Serie A games (since MD16), Empoli have picked up the fewest points (2) and conceded the most goals (18).

➤ Milan have lost their last two away games in all competitions (against Juventus and Dinamo Zagreb) and the Rossoneri could lose three in a row for the first time since between April and May 2015 (3 under Filippo Inzaghi).

➤ Milan have conceded in each of their last six league games, after keeping a clean sheet in four of the previous five; the last time the Rossoneri conceded in seven consecutive matches in a single Serie A season came between November 2022 and February 2023.

➤ Considering only the 1st half of games, AC Milan and Empoli have gained the same number of points in the Serie A standings this season (34 each in 7th and 8th place), but if considering only the 2nd half of matches the Rossoneri would occupy 11th place with 29 points and the Tuscans would occupy 19th place with 16 points.

➤ Lorenzo Colombo’s first five appearances in Serie A came for AC Milan between July 2020 and January 2021. He has scored five goals in 23 appearances in Serie A this season and he has never netted more in a single season in the topflight (also five goals in 33 matches for Lecce in 2022/23).

➤ Tijjani Reijnders – who scored the only brace of his Serie A and Eredivisie career against Empoli in the reverse fixture in November – is the top scoring midfielder in Serie A this season (7 goals). The Dutchman, after his goals against Parma and Inter, could score in three consecutive matches for the first time in his top-flight career.

➤ Santiago Giménez could become the first ever Mexican player to score for AC Milan in Serie A history. During his time at Feyenoord (since 2022/23), the forward scored 65 goals in 105 appearances across all competitions with only Luuk de Jong netting more for an Eredivisie club in that period (70 goals in 115 matches for PSV).

Ones to watch

We start with the front two for Empoli, both have had interesting seasons so far, and both have their own reasons for wanting to score against Milan. They can be dangerous, so the Rossoneri must operate with caution.

Saba Goglichidze is also a player to take note of, the Georgian defender may be a target for the Diavolo, so an impressive performance in an unfamiliar position could be a huge boost to his chances of a move.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

The obvious player to watch for Milan is Santiago Gimenez. It seems the Mexican will make his first start for the club this weekend, and fans will hope for an impressive display, and after a bright introduction at San Siro, it is not unlikely.

Finally, the central partnership of Tomori and Pavlovic must impress. Malick Thiaw and Matteo Gabbia are biting at the heels for a chance to impress, and if one of them makes a notable mistake they may be at risk. For this reason, a flawless game is needed.

Prediction

At present, Milan are a team inspired. From the stands to the pitch, things seem a lot better after the conclusion of the January mercato, and without being overly cliche, there is a need to ride the wave and the Empoli game is a fantastic opportunity for this.

The Azzurri do provide a threat though, so Conceicao’s men cannot show arrogance and expect an easy game.

Empoli 1-3 Milan