Serie A Tips: Ranieri and Roma to add to Milan misery | OneFootball

Italian Serie A

Get the best bets for the penultimate weekend of Seria A action

It's getting very tight in the race for the fourth and final Champions League spot in Serie A, and Kevin Hatchard believes Roma can get the better of Milan.

Football... Only Bettor. Watch Sunday's Premier League preview now.

🔗 Spotify

Roma v Milan - Can wounded Rossoneri recover in time?

Sunday 18 May, 19:45

It's been quite a bizarre week for Milan. First they beat Bologna 3-1 at San Siro, scoring three late goals to complete a comeback win that got them back into the race for the Champions League. Against the same opponents in the Coppa Italia final in Rome, they produced an anaemic display to lose 1-0 and continue their relatively long wait for the trophy.

After the match coach Sergio Conceicao admitted his side had started the final well but simply hadn't done enough to mount a comeback once the Rossoblu has scored early in the second half. Indeed, it was a really poor second-half display from Milan - Joao Felix looks like a broken man, and it's yet another big game in which Rafael Leao has shown glimpses of what he can do, but has failed to deliver a tangible end product.

This may seem like harsh criticism for a man who has delivered eight goals and eight assists in Serie A this term, but only one of those league goals came against a team in the current top five, and his record in the Champions League is a paltry six goals in 30 appearances. If the 25-year-old wants to be more than just a highlight-reel player, it's time to start delivering on that promise.

Milan fans are banned from this swift return to the Stadio Olimpico after some supporters misbehaved and vandalised the stadium in midweek, and it's tough to see a demoralised Milan avoiding defeat against a Roma team that has been so strong at home under Claudio Ranieri. Last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Atalanta was a shock to the system and an enormous setback, but victory here could keep alive hopes of what would be an amazing top-four finish.

Roma have won nine of their last 11 home games in the league, and although that schedule has maybe been kind to some extent, they did beat Lazio and Fiorentina and they recently won at San Siro against reigning champions and Champions League finalists Inter.

Milan have been in strong form on the road (they have won four of their last five Serie A away games), but I wonder how much Wednesday night's final took out of them physically and emotionally. I'll back Roma to win at 2.4.

Monza v Empoli - Don't fall into the motivation trap

Sunday 18 May, 19:45

At this time of the season, markets seem to be heavily influenced by the idea of motivation. Who's on the beach with nothing to play for? Who is fighting for trophies or survival?

I'm not sure it always works that way, and this matchup between already-relegated Monza and an Empoli team scrapping for survival has given us a price of 1.78 for the away win. That seems way too short to me.

Not for the first time recently, former Chelsea player Tino Anjorin rescued Empoli last week with a late goal, and this time it was a winner against Parma. It only arrived in the 87th minute, and Parma had a man sent off just past the half-hour mark.

That was Empoli's first league win since early December, so are we really to believe they are suddenly going to rack up back-to-back league victories? Empoli have only won three league games on the road all season, and two of those were in August and September.

Monza have long been doomed, but they beat Udinese last time out, and they have avoided defeat in three of the last eight at home. Both teams are poor, and I can't get on board with backing Empoli to win against a team that can play with no pressure and that held them to a goalless draw in the reverse fixture.

I'll lay Empoli at .

Juventus v Udinese - Hosts to take another tentative step

Sunday 18 May, 19:45

Juventus boss Igor Tudor suffered a gut-punch at the hands of his old side Lazio last weekend, as the Romans forced a 1-1 draw with a 96th-minute leveller from Matias Vecino. Juventus played most of that second half with ten men after Pierre Kalulu had been dismissed.

But Juve still have Champions League qualification in their hands. Win their final two games, and they are surely home and hosed, as their goal difference is significantly superior to Lazio's.

Visitors Udinese are in mid-table, and have claimed just four points from the last 24 available. If you look at their away record against the big hitters, they have lost 1-0 at Milan, 2-1 at Atalanta, 3-0 at Roma, 2-1 at Inter and they have carved out draws at Lazio and Napoli.

I think Juventus will edge this, but it'll be nervy and low-scoring. We can use the Sportsbook to back a Juve win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/6. Just one of Udinese's last 13 away games have featured four goals or more, while all seven of Igor Tudor's league games in charge have stayed under the 3.5 goals line, and only one of them featured three goals or more.

Now read Kev's Eurovision Grand Final preview here!