Sunderland v Everton: Back 7/4 Toffees to burst Black Cats' bubble | OneFootball

Sunderland v EvertonMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Black Cats defying odds but Toffees looking to improve

After an excellent 2-1 victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last weekend Sunderland briefly moved up to second in the table after nine Premier League games played. It's been a remarkable start to the season for Regis Le Bris' men, and even more so when you consider that they were 2/9 to be relegated when Betfair first opened the market in the summer.

Those relegation odds began to drift as the Black Cats enjoyed a successful transfer window, though they still commenced the season as odds-on shots at 7/20 for the drop.

Sunderland dropped down to fourth in the table at the conclusion of Matchday 9 in the Premier League, and following Saturday's results they now sit sixth in the table ahead of hosting Everton on Monday night, though a victory over the Toffees will move them back up to second in the table. The Black Cats are now out to 5/1 in the Relegation market.

It hasn't been a bad start to the season for Everton, though after winning three games on the spin in all competitions since bringing Jack Grealish into the starting XI, they're now on a run of just one win in seven and they've dropped to 15th in the table.

And although a win for David Moyes' men on Monday night will only move them up a few places they would be just three points behind Tottenham and Chelsea who currently sit fourth and fifth respectively.

Sunderland have rode their luck

In the Match Odds market, the Betfair traders can barely split the two teams with Sunderland available to back at 9/5 and Everton at 7/4, while the Draw can be backed at 21/10. However, I'm firmly in the camp of an away win here.

Now, I could easily end up with egg on my face should the Black Cats record another win at the Stadium of Light, and it might appear at first glance a tad folly to oppose a team that are unbeaten on home soil in the Premier League this season. But when you delve into the stats it makes for very interesting reading.

First, we have to mention the teams that Sunderland have hosted so far this term. Their three victories have been against Wolves, West Ham and Brentford. Wolves are rock bottom of the table after failing to win any of their 10 league games this season, West Ham are second bottom of the table with just one win to their name, and Brentford were among the relegation favourites at the start of the campaign.

In other words, Sunderland have had a very kind set of home fixtures, and even their 1-1 draw with Aston Villa came at a time when Villa had failed to score a single goal in each of their opening four Premier League games.

In terms of expected goals on home soil, Le Bris' men have a total xG of 4.26 in their four games, they've scored eight goals! Their xGA is very similar, yet they've conceded only two goals, which suggests to me they've been getting away with it a little. And the shots stats certainly back this up also.

In their three home victories Sunderland have registered 30 shots in total with 10 being on target. Their opponents have registered a total of 35 shots (11 on target) yet the aggregate score from those three matches is 7-1 to the Black Cats!

Of course, there's no reason why Sunderland can't continue to ride their luck, but given they were largely out-played by rock-bottom Wolves in their last home game - less possession, less xG, fewer shots (8 v 16) and fewer shot on target (2 v 3) - then I want to take them on here.

I thought Everton were extremely unfortunate to lose so heavily to Tottenham last weekend, they could easily have scored two or three goals themselves, and they should feel far more comfortable playing away to Sunderland following back-to-back away league games at Liverpool and Manchester City.

Back Fouls magnet Grealish in Safe Sub Bet Builder

No player in the Premier League draws more fouls than Jack Grealish, so with the Toffees fancied to have more possession than their opponents on Monday night - Sunderland have had less possession in seven of their nine league games this term - it makes sense to include Everton's star man in a Fouls Bet Builder.

Grealish is averaging 3.9 fouls drawn per 90 minutes this season, so odds of 5/6 for him to be Fouled 3+ Times seem perfectly fair, but I'm happy to include that price in a Bet Builder that pays arouond 3/1.

Powered by

Sunderland right-back Trai Hume will be the man tasked with keeping Grealish at bay and is therefore fancied to commit two or more fouls, while experienced defensive midfielder Granit Xhaka will likely attempt to stop Grealish when he cuts inside, so we fancy him to commit two or more fouls also.

Of course, Hume and Xhaka don't have to foul just Grealish, they can foul any player as long as they commit at least two each in the game. And the good news is that, using Betfair's Safe Sub insurance, should any of the trio of players in our Bet Builder be substitued then that part of the bet rolls on to the substitute coming on as their replacement.