Supercomputer backs Everton over Liverpool in Merseyside derby | OneFootball

A difficult run of form has now fed into the numbers, and the latest prediction ahead of the Merseyside derby won’t make comfortable reading for Liverpool supporters.

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According to Opta Analyst, we head into Sunday’s clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium as slight underdogs, despite the fixture historically favouring the Reds.

Opta prediction gives Everton slight edge over Liverpool

Their supercomputer outlined the outlook for the game, and the suggestion is that Everton may actually be better placed heading into the first derby at their new home.

“Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to the Merseyside derby for the first time, and it might be hosts Everton who enter that fixture with a greater sense of hope than Liverpool.”

The reasoning is clear when looking at recent events, with our Champions League exit to PSG and the devastating injury to Hugo Ekitike both impacting confidence and momentum.

The data backs that up too, with Opta noting: “the supercomputer assigns Arne Slot’s men a 36.3% chance of victory.”

That is narrowly below Everton’s 37.3%, while the draw sits at 26.4%, which shows just how finely balanced the fixture is on paper.

Form and injuries shaping Liverpool outlook

One of the more concerning elements behind that prediction is our away record against stronger sides, something that has clearly influenced the model.

Opta highlighted: “Liverpool have won just three of their last 22 away Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top half of the table (D10 L9), including losing six of their last seven (D1).”

That statistic alone underlines why confidence externally has dipped, particularly with injuries continuing to disrupt the squad, as Joe Gomez has already been ruled out of this weekend’s clash.

There is also a broader narrative forming around our performances, with Stephen Warnock recently questioning whether we look “controlled” under Slot, pointing to a lack of clear identity compared to Europe’s elite sides.

Still, there is a flip side, because victory on Sunday would see us become the first team to win at 60 different Premier League stadiums, which is a reminder of the history and resilience we still carry into games like this.

Ultimately, while the numbers may favour Everton slightly, the margins are so small that this derby will likely come down to moments, something we’ve seen time and time again in fixtures like these.