Supercomputer predicts Bundesliga: Bayern remain untouchable | OneFootball

The Bundesliga is gearing up, and discussions about favorites and underdogs are gaining momentum. Now, a supercomputer provides a detailed forecast for the new season.

The analysis model is based on tens of thousands of simulations and calculates the chances for all teams. According to the Opta supercomputer, this results in a clear picture in the title race.

Accordingly, the road to the championship trophy in 2025/26 also leads only through FC Bayern. With a probability of 52.9%, the record champions are well ahead of Bayer Leverkusen (16.9%) and Borussia Dortmund (15.8%). Behind them follow Frankfurt (4.4%), Stuttgart (2.9%), and Leipzig (2.5%).

The Chances for the Champions League

Bayern is almost guaranteed a Champions League spot: with a 91.2% probability of qualification, failure seems out of the question. According to Opta, Leverkusen (69.5%) and BVB (68.0%) also have excellent prospects. The race for fourth place is tighter—here, Eintracht Frankfurt (36.4%) is considered the favorite ahead of Stuttgart (28.7%), Leipzig (27.4%), and Mainz 05 (20.3%). Freiburg (14.2%) and Bremen (12.3%) also see themselves in contention.

The race for the Europa League spots is traditionally fiercely contested. According to the supercomputer’s calculations, Frankfurt (11.7%), Stuttgart (11.1%), and Leipzig (10.0%) are narrowly in front. Dortmund (9.6%), Mainz (9.0%), and Leverkusen (8.8%) are also within striking distance. Behind them are Freiburg (7.2%), Bremen (6.6%), and Wolfsburg (5.0%).

Surprises Among the Extended Circle

In addition to the big names, clubs that have not recently belonged to the top tier also appear among the extended favorites. For example, the model gives Mainz 05 at least a 20.3% chance of reaching the Champions League. Freiburg and Bremen are not entirely written off either—both have double-digit percentages in the forecasts.

For clubs like VfL Wolfsburg or SC Freiburg, however, the dream of Europe depends heavily on individual results. The Opta forecast shows that just a few points could decide the outcome.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.