The importance of securing the best possible spot in the Champions League | OneFootball

League Phase 2.0

Unlike what happened in 2024/25, this season it's possible to interpret the revamped format of the millionaire league with a different perspective. The lack of history in a League Phase format not only made the first phase more exciting but also more unpredictable.

Right from the start, because in the old Group Stage, the last matchday often served to adjust the calendar, even considering that the third-placed teams would move on to the Europa League.

In this format, those who finish below 24th place already know they are saying goodbye to European competitions. On the other hand, the fact that so many teams are involved in the same league means that the possible combinations entering the last two matchdays are almost infinite.

If the teams that finish in the top eight places go directly to the round of 16, the teams between 9th and 24th places will have to do a lot of calculations to anticipate possible opponents in the play-off to access those round of 16, a stage where Sporting (23rd) fell last season, already with Rui Borges at the helm, over two legs, at the hands of Borussia Dortmund (9th).

Sporting's Current Situation

The Lions can still return to the top 8, which they reached after the fifth matchday, but it is in the play-off zone where they should focus their main attention at this time. In 14th place, with 10 points in six matches, the Lion can give up the idea of reaching the top 8 if they do not score against PSG at Alvalade on January 20.

Because even winning in Bilbao, against Athletic, a week later, the 13 points accumulated in that scenario will not be enough for the top 8, as happened last season, with Aston Villa, the last team to enter the top 8, making... 16 points.

Meanwhile, a near-certain situation is emerging: Sporting should not need any more points to secure the play-off. And entering the last matchday at San Mamés, they will already have (or not) that guarantee, depending on the mathematical combination of results that can be made at that time. However, finishing 9th or 24th is not the same at all, with a draw being conducted in a 'mirror' format. Let's see:

The teams that finish between 9th and 16th place secure access to the play-off, with the advantage of being seeded and playing the second leg at home. Thus, the teams positioned in 9th and 10th face, after the draw, either 23rd or 24th; the teams in 11th-12th face the teams in 21st-22nd, and so on.

The teams between 17th and 24th place also access the play-off, with the disadvantage of playing the second leg away from home. The teams positioned in 17th and 18th, on the one hand, are not seeded but may face a theoretically more accessible opponent, as they either face the 15th or 16th ranked teams.

Last season, for example, after the League Phase ended, Sporting (23rd), in the penultimate position for play-off access, already knew before the draw that they would face either Atalanta (9th) or Borussia Dortmund (10th), two of the highest-ranked teams among the clubs participating in the play-offs.

The European Champion PSG at Alvalade

The reigning European champion, runner-up in the Club World Cup, and recent winner of the Intercontinental Cup plays at Alvalade on January 20. A game of maximum demand for the reigning Portuguese champions.

More than a transcendent Sporting, the Lion's chances are more related to French efficiency, which under normal conditions will create several goal situations in Lisbon, as they did in Bilbao in the last Champions game, but Unai Simón was inspired. Now, if Rui Silva does not have a night similar to the Basque goalkeeper, it will be difficult to counter PSG's favoritism, according to betting houses like Bwin or Betano.

With odds around 4.00 for a Sporting victory, it is understood that the most expected outcome would be a victory for Nuno Mendes' team, with odds lower than 1.82. The most surprising thing is that the betting houses pay almost as much for a draw. However, we recommend that those who believe in a Sporting victory protect their bet with the Bwin Portugal bonus, for example. The odds are low, but no result is ever certain.

The Trip to San Mamés at the End of January

If PSG confirms their favoritism a week earlier, the game in Bilbao can be especially dangerous for the Lions. The Basques are having a season well below expectations, but they have the individual quality to impose their identity on a "yes" night that could complicate the life of Rui Borges' team, which at that time will still not have Quenda and probably not Pedro Gonçalves either.

With 5 points currently, the Basques face Atalanta in the 7th matchday in Bergamo, and if they do not win that game, they will necessarily need to defeat Sporting to "dream" of the play-off. And even winning in Italy, they will still need that last game a lot.

One way or another, that is the other "obstacle" the Lions will have to face on January 28, to secure the highest position in the play-off access spots. And why not imagine an incredible direct qualification to the round of 16?

The Misleading Lesson of 2024/25

In 2024/25, the 11 points of Dinamo Zagreb, for example, were not enough for the Croatians to advance to the play-off, finishing in 25th place, on the doorstep of the goal, missed due to the negative difference (-7) between goals scored and conceded, losing in that tiebreaker to Club Brugge, Sporting, and Man City, all with 11 points as well, but with an advantage in that tiebreaker criterion.

However, this season, it is highly likely that the threshold of 10 points will be enough to enter the play-off. Because almost all teams with ambitions to break into the top 24 and have less than 7 points (that is, at least 4 points away from the Lions) will have equally difficult games.

Union St. Gilloise (6 points) plays in Munich against Bayern; Pafos (6 points) plays at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea; Bilbao (6 points), which then even faces the Lions, plays in Bergamo against a surprising Atalanta, and finally, Benfica (6 points), for example, plays in Turin but still ends up hosting Real Madrid.

If these four "underdogs" do not win simultaneously, there is no way to imagine Trincão and company out of the play-off for the round of 16. And once again, the betting houses point to quite favorable odds for Sporting in this regard, not preventing Sporting from having to give everything to score in the last two matchdays.

The Objective and Beneficial Lesson of 2024/2025

Even a team positioned in the second half of the play-off zone (17th-24th) and having the "luck" of avoiding "sharks" in the play-off can later "feel the consequences" of a League Phase below expectations. Thus, Sporting, even being able to qualify with the same 10 points they currently have, should clearly optimize their final position in the League Phase.

Last season, Benfica (16th) for example, found an accessible Monaco (17th) in the play-off but faced Barcelona in the round of 16 because the Catalans had closed the League Phase in second position. In other words, the "mirror effect" draw always ends up benefiting the team with the best performance.

This season, if Sporting loses to PSG, they will certainly be below 16th and thus risk facing teams like Liverpool (which by then may be much stronger than now) or Barcelona, as both are in that "combat" zone, that is, below 8th and above 16th place. Unless they win in Bilbao, in a game that could be worth much more than access to the play-off for Sporting.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇵🇹 here.