The secret Guardiola ambition that could see Man City unravel in major Arsenal boost | OneFootball

If Pep Guardiola was understandably deflated after another bad defeat at Real Madrid, it was actually all the more acute because of the game immediately before.

There’s a belief around Manchester City that the Catalan was unusually emboldened by the FA Cup victory over Newcastle United. The team had recently seen a revival to their attacking play through an aggressive formation that involved Antoine Semenyo tucking in while the full-backs offered the width, with Rodri pinning everything together. Modified for the cup game at St James’ Park, City produced what was probably their most complete performance in months.

A feeling pervades that Guardiola thought he’d finally got it to click. Except then he tried similar against Madrid - albeit with Erling Haaland accommodated and Rodri and Semenyo returned - only for the Spanish side to just pick that apart. The open space perfectly suited Madrid’s technical excellence.

Some at rival clubs spoke of an “arrogance,” the Independent understands.

If that’s maybe pushing it, it’s pretty clear that one fixture influenced the other, one competition conditioned another, in a way that might now really escalate as the run-in ramps up.

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(Getty)

Arsenal might be able to empathise if there wasn’t such an antipathy between the clubs in this title race. They looked leggy against Bayer Leverkusen, but that’s perhaps inevitable when you’re still in every competition.

The next week is going to take that to its first extreme, as the Carabao Cup final decides the first trophy.

While much of the focus so far has been on the potential psychological effect of that Wembley fixture’s result, just as significant may be the build-up to it.

There will, of course, be bigger fixtures, but this could well end up the biggest week of the season. There’s so much tension, in so many different ways.

On Saturday, both title rivals are playing in direct succession in a double-header that could divert the title race again.

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Guardiola’s City side have a tough second leg ahead of them (PA Wire)

Arsenal host an awkward Everton side, who are good on the road. City go to a resurgent and highly respectable West Ham United.

In most of the last few campaigns, these fixtures would have been seen as eminently winnable matches, that title challengers should just be able to roll through.

Not this season. Not in this kind of suffocating atmosphere. As has already been stated on these pages, there have been so few comfortable wins in the Premier League. Only six games have been by four-plus goals. That means so many other matches have been battles.

These could well be similar, at exactly the wrong time for both teams.

After four close and nervy matches in a row, Arsenal could really do with one of those home wins where they score early and just keep the opposition at arm’s length. Like, for example, the recent 3-0 win over Sunderland. Everton have generally not allowed that this season, mind.

Should Arsenal squeeze through, however, the pressure is immediately on City to keep up. West Ham will, of course, limit space all over the pitch regardless of what happens at Arsenal.

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Arsenal escaped with a draw after a controversial penalty decision in Leverkusen (AFP/Getty)

These points are highly likely to be hard won.

After that, it’s two genuinely exacting games in the Champions League.

Bayer Leverkusen showed in the first leg against Arsenal that they are a defensively robust and tactically smart side.

That potentially sets up the type of emotionally intense and tight second leg that will be the total opposite of City’s game. Because, no matter what happens there, Guardiola’s side go into their return match needing to pull off an epic. They need one of the biggest ever Champions League comebacks, the scale of that all the more immense since it involves Real Madrid.

There is also another twist to that whole dynamic. Arsenal are obviously in a more favourable situation, and have a good chance of the quarter-final, but that in a season when the one they really want most is the title.

City are much more likely to go out, which might free them for midweeks just at the point when Mikel Arteta’s squad is really pushed to the limit. Guardiola would suddenly have a lot more time to prepare, with his team a lot fresher. It could be crucial.

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Erling Haaland is struggling for form (Action Images/Reuters)

The counterpoint is, of course, that Guardiola cares greatly about the Champions League in the way Arteta cares about that first league title, and maybe even more deeply. The Catalan has always been obsessed with the trophy, and that is for multiple reasons that have conditioned some of his more surprising decisions in the competition. There’s still a complex about it, even if it isn’t as intensely felt as before winning it again in 2023.

Guardiola won’t say it publicly, but he’d love the record for most titles. He’s certainly aware he should have won more than three times, especially after 17 seasons, when he’s always been at the wealthiest clubs in the game.

Elimination could bring deflation, in a way that has been seen with Guardiola before.

On the other hand, qualification may bring the ultimate reinvigoration, as well as the sort of emotional momentum that overrides any fatigue. There was an element of that in what happened in 2022-23.

Even that, however, may be contoured by this first grand showdown in the Carabao Cup final.

The outcome may say a lot about what's next, and that in itself may be accentuated by the days before.

In normal circumstances, experienced football figures would say to just concentrate on what’s in front of you, and nothing else.

In this case, though, there’s just too much going on, with all of it overlapping and intertwining.

As an illustrative example, when do Arsenal use Kai Havertz? They’d prefer to save him for the Premier League, but they may then need him in another big fixture where the result could have a knock-on effect… like what happened against Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday. Havertz had to be introduced.

Guardiola, meanwhile, has to think on his system anew, as well as how to maximise Haaland again.

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The Gunners and City meet for the first domestic silverware of the season next Sunday (Getty)

There’s so much to consider, and this week may have real consequences.

Consider two possible extremes, both of which are very much within the realms of reality.

Arsenal could suffer another dispiriting setback in the Premier League, before a shock Champions League elimination and another trophy failure.

City, meanwhile, could end up defeated in the Champions League and Carabao Cup, while feeling too far back in the title race. Worse, they’ll have felt properly beaten by Arsenal for the first time in this era.

The likely outcome is probably some combination of all this, especially since only one can prevail next Sunday. Maybe both win on Saturday, or Arsenal go further ahead as City win the Carabao Cup.

So it’s not necessarily all or nothing. But it says enough that it has the potential to be.