West Ham v Chelsea Tips: 15/2 Kudus can cause Blues concern

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·20 settembre 2024

West Ham v Chelsea Tips: 15/2 Kudus can cause Blues concern

English Premier League

West Ham boss Julen Lopetegui

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Dave Tindall is tipping Mohammed Kudus to play a key role for the Hammers in Saturday's early kick-off...

West Ham have a strong home record in this fixture
Mohammed Kudus should get opportunity to shine
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Lopetegui looking for first home point

Just four sides are without a point at home in the Premier League this season. Wolves, Southampton and Everton - who occupy the relegation slots - are three of them; the other is West Ham.

It'll be an area of discomfort for new boss Julen Lopetegui as he tries to make a good early impression on the locals although a bit of context is needed. The two defeats have come against Aston Villa (1-2) and Manchester City (1-3) and it didn't help that those games came before two of last year's top four started their Champions League campaigns.

In addition, Lopetegui has managed a cheery wave to the home fans thanks to a 1-0 Carabao Cup win over Bournemouth. Add that to four points from away London derbies against Crystal Palace (2-0) and Fulham (1-1) and it's been a decent enough start for the Spanish boss.

Chelsea bid to maintain 100% away record

In terms of home and away results, it's been a very similar story for Chelsea. They've managed a single point in front of their home fans - 0-2 v Man City and 1-1 v Crystal Palace - but have maximum points on the road.

The first of those was a 6-2 romp at Wolves while they backed it up in far less convincing fashion at Bournemouth last week. Between Anthony Taylor booking anyone in his eyeline, the hosts missed a penalty and Chelsea grabbed all three points via an 86th-minute strike from Christopher Nkunku.

The Blues remain a skittish outfit and eighth place hints at what they could be while also revealing failings.

Blues fancied for win but history says beware

Chelsea always get plenty of respect in the market and they're clear favourites to beat their London rivals.

The outright market shows West Ham at 12/5, The Draw 3/1 and Chelsea 21/20. On the evidence of their last meeting - a 5-0 Chelsea win at Stamford Bridge in May - that looks fair.

But Chelsea fans who regularly make the short journey across London will be far more wary when taking history into account.

This has been a tough ground for the Blues and the last five meetings in East London show three wins for West Ham, one draw and just a single Chelsea success.

Those three wins for West Ham were 3-2, 3-2 and 3-1, the latter coming early last season, so entertainment and goal levels have been high.

Hammers value for victory

West Ham will win their share of home games this season while Chelsea are bound to come a cropper a fair few times on the road.

Add in that head-to-head record and it's very easy to be tempted by that home price of 12/5. West Ham to win and BTTS has landed each time in those three Hammers' victories just mentioned so that has to be an option at 4/1 too.

Chelsea's abundance of attacking options suggests they'll find the net at some point although three goals in their last three games still highlights inconsistency in front of goal. "We lacked quality in the box," said Blues boss Enzo Maresca after the Bournemouth game, as if to prove the point.

Goals look likely but it's rather off-putting to see Over 2.5 at just 1/2 and Over 3.5 at 5/4.

Let's just keep it simple and back the West Ham win.

Kudus holds the key

With West Ham's German forward Niclas Füllkrug still fighting for full fitness, I'll look elsewhere for home goalscorers.

The one I like is Mohammed Kudus, who looks ready to open his account for the season. The Ghanaian so nearly did that against Manchester City when smashing the post after a fast West Ham break.

With Chelsea lacking defensive solidity, he should get plenty of chance to run and roam and I'll back him at 3/1 for a goal.

I'll also take Kudus at 15/2 to have a 1 or More Shots On Target in Each Half.

The left-footer is being given plenty of minutes and has played the full 90 in three of West Ham's four PL matches and been taking off after 88 minutes, when they were 2-0 up, in the other.

That bodes well for a bet that has an element both sides of the break. Add it into the West Ham win and the Bet Builder pays 22/1.

For Chelsea, Cole Palmer doesn't quite look as potent under Maresca even though it's still early days.

It was two subs - Nkunku and Jadon Sancho - who combined to give them their late winner at Bournemouth so it's not straightforward to try and predict the visitors' line-up.

Nicolas Jackson scored twice in the 5-0 win against West Ham at Stamford Bridge at the end of last season and has two in four so far in the top-flight. He gets plenty of stick but 9/5 for an anytime goal is an option.