What Are Arsenal’s Chances of Winning Both the Premier League and Champions League? | OneFootball

Mikel Arteta’s side are just four matches away from one of the greatest seasons in Arsenal’s history. The Opta supercomputer reveals how likely they are to win both the Premier League and Champions League.

Arsenal are on the cusp of something very, very special. They sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League, with their destiny entirely in their own hands. Win their remaining three matches and they will be crowned champions of England for the first time in 22 years.

They are also through to their first UEFA Champions League final in 20 years, where they will face reigning champions PSG. Arsenal have never won the European Cup or Champions League, so there is enough history riding on that competition alone.

With four huge games remaining, Arsenal are staring at the possibility of winning both trophies and completing the European double for the first time in the club’s history.

They would join Liverpool (1976-77, 1983-84), Manchester United (1998-99, 2007-08) and Manchester City (2022-23) as the only English sides to win the league title and the European Cup/Champions League in the same season. United in 1998-99 and City in 2022-23 also completed the treble by adding the FA Cup.

With Arsenal favourites for the Premier League and just one match away from Champions League glory, what are the chances they become only the fourth English club to complete the European double? We asked the Opta supercomputer.

Arsenal’s Chances of Winning the European Double

As mentioned, Arsenal are strong favourites to win the Premier League. The Opta supercomputer currently gives them an 85.2% chance of lifting the title.

They are also currently marginal favourites to win the Champions League, with the model rating their chances of beating PSG in the final at 54.6%.

We can combine those probabilities to estimate Arsenal’s chances of winning both competitions:

According to the supercomputer, Arsenal have a 46.5% chance of completing the European double.

The probability of them winning exactly one of the two trophies is slightly higher, at 46.8%, while the chances of finishing the season empty-handed are just 6.7%. Spun in a more positive way, the model gives Arsenal a 93.3% chance of winning at least one major trophy before the campaign is over.

It is important to note that these calculations assume the two events in question, winning the Premier League and winning the Champions League, are completely independent. In reality, there is likely to be some correlation between them. Winning or losing the league title could have a tangible impact on morale, momentum, fitness levels and squad selection ahead of the Champions League final, while any injuries Arsenal pick up in their Premier League run-in could significantly impact their chances in Europe.

Even so, putting the probabilities down on paper underlines just how close Arsenal are to completing one of the greatest seasons in the club’s history.

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