Why Boca want Cruzeiro to beat Universidad Católica in Copa Libertadores | OneFootball

A Brazilian win in Chile would change the group outlook for Xeneize. The opposite scenario would leave them with no margin for error.

At Boca, coming back empty-handed from Guayaquil was not part of the plan. Xeneize only needed to come away with something to head into the final stretch of the group calmly, but the defeat against Barcelona complicated the picture, leaving Claudio Ubeda’s side with no room for mistakes. Tonight’s match between Universidad Católica and Cruzeiro will be decisive in understanding what Boca need.

Starting at 11 p.m. (Argentina time), the Chileans and Brazilians will face off on matchday four, and the result will be crucial for the team from La Ribera. A win for the Belo Horizonte side would bring calm to Buenos Aires, but everything would get more complicated if the home team takes all three points.

So far, Boca, Cruzeiro and Universidad Católica are level on points, but at least one of the two teams (if they draw, both of them) will move above Xeneize in the table. Even so, a win for Artur Jorge’s side would have a different feel for the Argentine team.

Why a Cruzeiro win helps Boca

A Cruzeiro win tonight would make the whole picture much clearer for Boca, who would only need to beat Universidad Católica on the final matchday to reach the round of 16, regardless of what happens in matchday five against the Brazilians at La Bombonera. This is due to the head-to-head tiebreaker system being used in this edition of the Copa.

If the Brazilians win, Católica will remain on 6 points, and could reach the final matchday with a maximum gap of 3 points over Xeneize (imagining a negative scenario in which they beat Barcelona in Chile and Boca lose to Cruzeiro). In that case, a blue-and-gold win on matchday six would be enough to draw level on points and move above them in the standings by virtue of having won both head-to-head meetings.

What happens if Universidad Católica win

On the other hand, a Universidad Católica celebration tonight would make things much tougher for Boca, who would be practically forced to win the two remaining matches at home to qualify. In that scenario, Cruzeiro would stay on 6 points, but avoiding defeat at La Bombonera would leave them one step away from qualification thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

In a scenario where Boca draw with Cruzeiro and then beat Universidad Católica, while also factoring in hypothetical wins for the Brazilians and Chileans against Barcelona, the situation would look like this.

In that case, a tie on points between Xeneize and the Brazilian side would hurt Ubeda’s team, who would be eliminated because they lost in Belo Horizonte. That is why, if Universidad Católica win today, Boca will have to beat Cruzeiro at La Bombonera with no margin for error.

What happens if Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro ends in a draw

A draw today would not be bad news for Xeneize, who would still end matchday four in Copa Sudamericana territory. In this scenario, Boca would be able to put their qualification on track as long as they do not lose against Cruzeiro. A draw on matchday five would be enough for them to advance by beating the Chileans in the last one.

It is worth noting that a draw is the best possible scenario for Boca if they want to finish first in their group, since the scenarios mentioned above would only allow them to go through as runners-up. Beyond all the calculations, Xeneize still depend on themselves, but they will have to win both of their home games to avoid suffering.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇪🇸 here.