Will Iran boycott the World Cup over US strikes and who might replace them? | OneFootball

Donald Trump has said that it would not be “appropriate” for Iran to play in this summer’s World Cup following the US and Israeli strikes on the country.

Iran’s sports minister Ahmad Donyamali had previously appeared to rule out the possibility of the country playing at the tournament, saying that “the conditions for participation do not exist”, before Trump’s latest intervention struck a similar tone.

The US president posted on Truth Social: “The Iran National Soccer Team is welcome to The World Cup, but I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

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Iran qualified directly for the World Cup and are scheduled to play three games in the United States in June (AFP via Getty Images)

Fifa president Gianni Infantino insisted at one point that he had received assurances from Trump that Iran would be welcome at the tournament. However, the organisation is yet to respond to requests for comment regarding Iran’s participation in the finals in the light of Donyamali’s comments or Trump’s remarks.

The tournament takes place across multiple cities in the United States, Mexico and Canada this summer. Iran’s group games are scheduled to be played in the US, between Los Angeles and Seattle.

Iran were the only nation to be missing from a World Cup planning event that included participating teams, held earlier this month in Atlanta.

Could Iran boycott the World Cup?

Iran are scheduled to play two World Cup games in Los Angeles and another in Seattle. They will face New Zealand and Belgium in LA on June 15 and June 21, followed by the match against Egypt in Seattle on June 26.

But little is known about how Iran could respond to the US and Israeli strikes in a sporting context. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei replacing him.

There has never been a boycott of the World Cup on political grounds and the last World Cup boycott was 60 years ago, when African teams refused to play in protest of receiving just one-third of a qualifying berth.

There has never before been a situation where a World Cup host has attacked a qualified team so close to the start of the tournament, with just four months to go before the opening game.

As the Independent’s Miguel Delaney highlighted, several European countries discussed a World Cup boycott when the United States threatened to annex Greenland in January.

Even before the strikes, there was political tension over Iran’s involvement in the tournament due to visa restrictions. The country’s football federation followed through on a threat to boycott Novembers’s World Cup draw in Washington DC.

At the time, Iranian Football Federation spokesman Amir Mehdi Alavi said the US had granted visas to four members of the Iranian delegation, including head coach Amir Ghalenoei, but had not issued one to its football president Mehdi Taj.

The boycott of the World Cup draw, Alavi said, followed “unsportsmanlike actions” by one of the host countries.

And the situation has only escalated since then. Athletes, teams members and family members were previously excluded from Trump’s travel ban but the US government could also decide to restrict Iran from competing at all if they cited security risks.

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(Trump said he 'doesn't really care' if Iran play or if they boycott, in what would be an unprecedented situation)

What could happen if Iran don’t play?

In Fifa’s World Cup regulations, published last year and before the qualifying stage of the tournament was complete, it states: “If any Participating Member Association withdraws and/or is excluded from the Fifa World Cup 26, Fifa shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary. Fifa may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association.”

Iran qualified automatically for the World Cup, with the United Arab Emirates losing out on an automatic qualification spot and subsequently going out in the play-off rounds. In the event of Iran not playing in the World Cup, they would be the closest replacement. Iraq could only be an option, if they do not come through their intercontinental play-off against either Bolivia or Suriname in Mexico later this month.

But the uncertainty in the Gulf as a result of the US strikes means that replacing Iran with either the UAE or Iraq could be far from straight-forward, and Fifa’s regulations indicate that they could do whatever they would like, anyway.

There is some precedent from last summer when Mexican side Club Leon were kicked out of the Club World Cup due to multi-club ownership rules. Fifa then announced a play-off between Los Angeles Football Club (LAFC) and Mexican team Club America which was won by LAFC, granting them access to the tournament.

Fifa’s World Cup regulations also state: “Fifa has the right to cancel, reschedule or relocate one or more matches (or the entire FIFA World Cup 26) for any reason at its sole discretion, including as a result of force majeure or due to health, safety or security concerns.”

Seemingly, there is therefore the possibility that Iran’s games could be moved from the US; but there is also the possibility that the US and Iran could play each other at the tournament. This would happen if both teams were runners-up in Group D and Group G respectively, with that fixture scheduled to be played in Arlington, Texas.