All about the next game: Leverkusen away | OneFootball

This year, VfB is tra­ve­ling to Leverkusen’s BayA­re­na for the fourth time. Can VfB secu­re their first win the­re this year, or will Lever­ku­sen strike back at the last minu­te once again?

When Deniz Undav said after last year’s home game against the Werks­elf that we had just seen the two best Ger­man teams play, many people—especially Bay­ern fans—laughed. By the 34th match­day, howe­ver, many had to admit: Stutt­gart and Lever­ku­sen real­ly were the best teams, as our VfB ulti­m­ate­ly over­took Bay­ern for second place while Lever­ku­sen went unbea­ten to cla­im the cham­pi­on­ship. The rise of the two teams hap­pen­ed in par­al­lel in a way. In the 22/23 sea­son, Xabi Alon­so took over Bay­er 04 Lever­ku­sen while they were in 17th place, led them to the Euro­pa League that same sea­son, and sur­pri­sin­gly took them to the cham­pi­on­ship the next. In the same sea­son, Sebas­ti­an Hoe­neß took over VfB Stutt­gart. Also at risk of rele­ga­ti­on, he first led them to the rele­ga­ti­on play­offs and then, a year later, into the Cham­pi­ons League. Both coa­ches achie­ved record-brea­king sea­sons: neither Lever­ku­sen nor Stutt­gart had ever had a bet­ter sea­son in terms of points. They share a simi­lar tac­ti­cal style, too—a modern pos­ses­si­on-based game inspi­red by Rober­to De Zerbi’s tac­tics at Brigh­ton & Hove Albi­on. This style doesn’t just coun­ter­press, as prac­ti­ced by almost every pro­fes­sio­nal team in Ger­ma­ny; it prac­ti­cal­ly nul­li­fies it and turns it back on its­elf. The tac­ti­cal dif­fe­ren­ces bet­ween the­se two talen­ted coa­ches are subt­le, in are­as like for­ma­ti­ons, buil­dup play, etc.

Howe­ver, while Leverkusen’s sea­son ended with a dou­ble and a lost Euro­pa League final, VfB’s record sea­son didn’t result in a title. Lever­ku­sen was always in the way. In the league? Second behind Lever­ku­sen. In the cup? Kno­cked out by Lever­ku­sen. In the Super Cup? Lost to Lever­ku­sen. I don’t think I’m exag­ge­ra­ting when I say that Bay­er 04 Lever­ku­sen vs. VfB Stutt­gart was more of a Ger­man clas­sic than Bay­ern vs. Dort­mund last sea­son. And this sea­son? Neither team has quite mana­ged to repli­ca­te last year’s form. Lever­ku­sen is third, but they’re not the power­house they were last year, and VfB, in eighth place, is still fin­ding its foo­ting after a sum­mer squad over­haul. Nevert­hel­ess, we can hope for an exci­ting match in which VfB might final­ly defeat their neme­sis and secu­re three points.

Personnel situation

The­re are no chan­ges from the cup game in Lau­tern. Jeff Cha­b­ot is absent this time not due to inju­ry but becau­se of a yel­low-red card sus­pen­si­on. Kei­tel is still deal­ing with adduc­tor issues, and Diehl and Ster­giou remain side­lined due to inju­ries.

Possible Starting line-up

I think the best XI will start. I think El Bil­al will start over Demi­ro­vic, though that’s not to down­play Demirovic’s qua­li­ty. Against Lever­ku­sen, El Bilal’s pace will be more cri­ti­cal than Demirovic’s phy­si­cal­i­ty. Still, Demi­ro­vic will sure­ly come off the bench. In defen­se, I expect Cha­se to replace the sus­pen­ded Cha­b­ot. We might also see Hen­driks, who did a good job against Lau­tern.

Statistics

In 86 Bun­des­li­ga games against Lever­ku­sen, VfB Stutt­gart has won only 23 times and mana­ged to draw as many times. The remai­ning 40 games were all won by the Werks­elf. The away sta­tis­tics are even more one-sided. VfB has won only 7 out of 48 away games in Lever­ku­sen, with a win rate of 16.2%, their third-lowest in an away fix­tu­re. Only in Leip­zig, against Bay­ern Munich, and in Hei­den­heim have they won less often in the Bun­des­li­ga. As men­tio­ned, VfB and the Werks­elf play a simi­lar style of foot­ball. This is evi­dent in the stats, whe­re VfB and Lever­ku­sen have near­ly iden­ti­cal figu­res in most cate­go­ries, such as avera­ge pos­ses­si­on. VfB ranks third with 57% pos­ses­si­on, while Lever­ku­sen is fourth with 55%. Lever­ku­sen has scored the second-most goals, with VfB third. Even in wea­k­er stats, the two teams resem­ble each other; for exam­p­le, VfB wins the second-fewest aeri­al duels, and Lever­ku­sen is 15th in that cate­go­ry. The only area whe­re the teams dif­fer signi­fi­cant­ly is run­ning stats: Lever­ku­sen regu­lar­ly ranks in the top 5, while VfB tends to be among the least acti­ve run­ning teams.

Conclusion

For the fourth time this year, we’re play­ing in Lever­ku­sen, and it’s no easier to get points here. Bay­er 04 Lever­ku­sen may not be the force they were last year, but neither is VfB. I fear that Chabot’s absence could be the deci­ding fac­tor, and we might end up going home emp­ty-han­ded with a 0–2 loss.

Pic­tu­re: © Lars Baron/Getty Images