Aston Villa’s surge to title contention feels unsustainable. So can they really win the Premier League? | OneFootball

It could amount to a triumph of reason. Arsenal top the Premier League table after seeming to plan for every eventuality, fill in every gap in the squad, take care of every small detail. Arsenal have the best defence, the fewest defeats, the reputation as the set-piece specialists. They are building a title challenge on the most solid of foundations.

But the battle at the summit could be between the logical and the illogical. Aston Villa’s surge defies received wisdom and footballing orthodoxy. History and geography, too, given that Villa have not been champions since 1981 and only one Midlands club has in the Premier League era: Leicester, whose glory was more stirring because it was illogical.

Like Claudio Ranieri then, Unai Emery is now not talking about the title. The context may justify that stance. Arsenal were perfectly prepared for the start of the season. Villa seemed utterly unprepared. One of their premier players, Emi Martinez, started the campaign suspended. Another, Ezri Konsa, got sent off in the opening match.

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Unai Emery appeared troubled at the start of the season but oversaw a stunning turnaround (Getty)

They were the last of the 92 Premier and Football League clubs to score a goal this season; that belated first, from Harvey Elliott, came in a Carabao Cup exit to Brentford and from a player who has since been exiled from first-team contention. Villa did not win a game this season until 25 September, 39 days after Arsenal, 41 after Liverpool.

Yet that victory over Bologna was the first of 15 in 17 matches in all competitions for Villa. They have won their last nine in a row, six of them in the Premier League. Construct a table since 25 September and Villa are three points clear at the top, with 19 points more than Liverpool, who spent £450m in the summer.

Villa, meanwhile, made a transfer-market profit, more by necessity than choice; their recruitment ended up as the footballing equivalent of grabbing the last things on the shelves before the shops close on Christmas Eve. Emery, who had wanted Marco Asensio back or Lucas Paqueta, certainly didn’t seem to appreciate being given Elliott, probably didn’t want Jadon Sancho, but has found a use for a second-hand Victor Lindelof.

Villa have traded frantically in the Emery era, and yet their title challenge is the antidote to the obsession with the transfer market. Their summer signings have no league goals between them.

But then Villa, it appeared, began the season in a sulk. They submitted a complaint about the refereeing at Old Trafford on the final day of last season, when defeat cost them Champions League football. They were hamstrung by PSR. Emery’s ally Monchi left when Villa were still winless and in the relegation zone. If a title challenge was coming, Villa kept it very well camouflaged.

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Emery’s side have salvaged several wins from losing positions already this season (Getty)

Perhaps they hid it from Martinez, too, after he spent deadline day hoping for a move to Manchester United, and ended up being stripped of the vice-captaincy. As it is, Villa’s squad is undeniably weaker than it was in the second half of last season, when Emery could call upon Marcus Rashford, Asensio and Jacob Ramsey. Villa had Jhon Duran in the first half of last season. Now Emery has a lone specialist centre-forward; yet Villa’s rise has not come directly from Ollie Watkins, either, given that he has a mere three goals in 23 games this season.

Meanwhile, Morgan Rogers’ recent form has prompted suggestions that he is a player-of-the-year candidate. However, he was booed by sections of the Villa support as recently as the Bologna game.

Rogers’ turnaround in fortunes has been mirrored by others. Until his brace at West Ham last week – and, a microcosm of a campaign in which Villa have been slow starters but then triumphed, it was a fifth win in which they conceded first – their top scorers in the Premier League were Donyell Malen and Emi Buendia, who could both be called forgotten men. The Dutchman was omitted from the Champions League squad in February, sidelined by the sudden signings of Rashford and Asensio. The Argentinian was sent on loan to Bayer Leverkusen. His injury-time winner against Arsenal has the potential to prove the most significant goal of the season.

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Buendia’s winner against Arsenal has prevented the Gunners from pulling away at the top of the table (Getty)

Whereas the summer buy Evann Guessand has had a negligible impact, Malen and Buendia’s goals have been worth nine points between them; add in their assists and it becomes a 15-point difference. Villa, despite their options feeling lesser this year, have six goals from substitutes, a total bettered only by Brighton.

They have found goals from different players and from longer distance. Rogers’ winner at West Ham was their 10th goal from outside the penalty area. It does not feel sustainable, and the statistics suggest it is not. Villa have 25 goals this season and an expected goals tally of just 19.40, suggesting an element of good fortune. Their xG difference is negative; Understat’s model gives them an expected points of 18, which puts them just 15th in the expected table, and 16 points behind Arsenal.

And yet, with a trip to the Emirates Stadium on 30 December, Villa could begin 2026 at the Premier League summit. It scarcely felt feasible when they were in the bottom three in the final few days of September. If the illogicality of it might indicate it would not last, football is not as predictable as some pretend and can be at its most compelling when the unexpected occurs. If Emery makes Villa champions, it would be a stunning feat of glorious perverseness.