Barts: The Key Stats That Explain Liverpool’s Carabao Cup Failure | OneFootball

Liverpool’s Carabao Cup Final Collapse: The Stats Behind the Defeat to Newcastle

Liverpool’s 2-1 defeat to Newcastle in the Carabao Cup Final was more than just a bad day at Wembley. It was a performance riddled with inefficiencies, tactical missteps, and a statistical breakdown that underlined why Arne Slot’s side deserved to lose. As Dave Davis and Dr Barts broke down the numbers on The Stat Me Up Podcast from Anfield Index, the reality was clear—this wasn’t a game where Liverpool were “battered,” but it was a game where they simply didn’t do enough to win.

A Poor First Half That Set the Tone

From the first whistle, something wasn’t right. “I just thought early on I didn’t see anything,” said Barts. “Half-time maybe, okay, fair enough, but things concerned me pretty much from the first five to ten minutes.” It was a sluggish, uninspired opening that saw Liverpool register just one shot in the first half, while Newcastle managed nine.

Possession-wise, Liverpool had 64%, but it was hollow control. “They had 26 penalty box touches to our 17,” noted Dr Barts, a stat that painted the picture of a team lacking penetration. The Expected Goals (xG) figure of 0.26 for Liverpool in the first half was the lowest of the season, while Newcastle posted 0.7. “That’s pretty horrendous in any way you want to wrap it,” Barts added.

Second Half Adjustments – But Not Enough

After the break, things were expected to improve. “You thought okay, second half, that’s where Slot will come to life. I’m not really sure it got any better at all, to be honest.”

Liverpool managed to increase their penalty box touches from two to 15 in the second half, but even with more possession, Newcastle still out-shot them 8 to 6 and had more big chances (2 to 1).

One of the biggest issues was Liverpool’s lack of a cutting edge. “It’s rare for us to get below 1 xG,” Barts highlighted. “0.89 for a cup final is poor, while Newcastle almost had a whole one more than us (1.8).” Liverpool were moving the ball better, but the actual threat wasn’t improving.

Midfield Struggles and Missed Opportunities

Liverpool’s midfield issues were evident, with poor ball progression and weak link-up play. “Our passing success rate was just 79%, well below our standard of 85%+,” noted Barts. One player, however, did stand out in a positive way—Curtis Jones.

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Jones came on and posted a 94% pass completion rate, easily the best of any Liverpool midfielder on the day. “13 final third passes in just 35 minutes—that’s incredible considering how poor we were,” Barts added. Another bright spark was Harvey Elliott, who recorded two key passes and a 93% pass accuracy. His assist for Liverpool’s goal was one of the few moments of real quality.

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But elsewhere, there were major concerns. Cody Gakpo, who was introduced ahead of Elliott and Ben Doak, looked unfit and ineffective. “We all saw against PSG—the boy can’t run,” Davis said bluntly. “So why was he picked over someone like Chiesa, who clearly can run and have an impact?”

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Newcastle’s Tactical Approach and Liverpool’s Tactical Failings

Newcastle executed their plan well, defending deep and hitting Liverpool on the break. “They weren’t phenomenal,” admitted Barts. “But they didn’t need to be.”

One of the key stats that summed up the night was Liverpool’s right-side ineffectiveness. Without Trent Alexander-Arnold, the usual supply line to Mohamed Salah wasn’t there. “Our system is primed around our right-back getting the ball to Mo,” said Barts. “If you can’t do that, we cannot operate.”

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The numbers backed it up—Liverpool struggled to progress the ball down the right, and Salah ended up isolated and ineffective. This isn’t just a one-off issue; it’s something Slot will need to resolve moving forward.

Looking Ahead: Lessons for the Title Run-In

Liverpool fans might take some solace in the fact that the Premier League title race is still alive, and the upcoming international break could provide some much-needed rest. “We’ve only got to win four games and we win the title,” Davis reminded listeners. But as Barts pointed out, it’s a warning for the rest of the season.

“If you’re going to go for more than one competition, you have to use the whole squad,” he said. “You can’t expect the same 11 to play 120 minutes against PSG, then go again at Wembley.”

With tough Premier League fixtures to come, Liverpool need to refresh, recalibrate, and learn from the errors that cost them in the Carabao Cup Final.