Brentford v Manchester City: Citizens recovery to continue in a 15/8 win | OneFootball

Brentford v Manchester CitySunday, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

Decent start for Bees and City are recovering well

After losing some key personnel, including manager Thomas Frank and star player Bryan Mbuemo, Brentford were backed down to 3/1 in the Relegation market before a ball was kicked this season. But they've had a decent start to the new campaign and sat 13th in the table (W2-D1-L3) going into the weekend fixtures, ahead of the likes of Manchester United, Newcastle and Aston Villa.

The highlight was last week's deserved 3-1 win over the Red Devils, and they've also recorded two victories over Villa this term, once in the Premier League and the other on penalties in the EFL Cup that has seen Keith Andrews' men progress to a very winnable last-16 tie against League Two outfit Grimsby Town.

But some things seem very similar to last season, in that the Bees appear to score and concede goals with regularity, so with free-scoring Manchester City up next - or free-scoring Erling Haaland if you prefer - we should be set for a cracker at the Gtech on Sunday afternoon.

City have recovered - sort of - from a slow start to the new season. They lost two of their first three in the Premier League but they're now on a run of six games without defeat in all competitions, though 90th minute goals conceded against Arsenal and most recently Monaco in the Champions League will have angered boss Pep Guardiola.

The Citizens sat seventh in the table after six games played (W3-D1-L2) and - probably down to injuries rather than a change in Guardiola's thought process - they appear to have a settled starting XI with that man Haaland thriving and scoring goals for fun once again.

Man City can be backed at 5/1 in the Premier League Winner market. Incidentally, Brentford have drifted one point in the Relegation market from their pre-season odds and they're now trading at 4/1 to go down.

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Away win likely with both teams netting

I feel as though I've said this a few times already this season, that at first glance a price about a team winning the match seems perfectly fair and even on the generous side. And in this case, I'm talking about the 8/13 on offer in the Match Odds market for a Man City win. I had a price of around 1/2 in my mind before checking the market.

As I've mentioned already, Guardiola's men have recovered well from those early defeats. They thumped local rivals United in the Manchester derby, comfortably beat Napoli, progressed in the EFL Cup and last week thrashed Burnley 5-1. And they really ought to have beaten Arsenal and Monaco which would have made it six wins on the spin.

So yes, I do fancy City to win this game. For me, there are signs that they are hitting top gear with some of their big names finding form, not least Haaland but also Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku.

But notice that I said 'at first glance' City's price seems generous. I did have to have another think about it and when you consider that the Bees have a decent record in this fixture, and that they've scored in every Premier League game so far this season, then you can understand that it might not all be plain sailing for the away team. A home win can be backed at 15/4 with the Draw at 16/5.

But I'm sticking to my guns and my gut instinct that City really are a decent price here. Despite a decent start to the new campaign Brentford have lost by two-goal margins to Nottingham Forest and Fulham and they've lost to newly-promoted Sunderland. At their best, Man City are on a different level to those three teams.

However, I'm not one to stick up an 8/13 shot as my main bet so instead I'm going to follow the early season trends.

As mentioned, Brentford have scored in all six league games this term and both teams have scored in their last five matches in all competitions. City conceded at home to Burnley last Saturday and twice to Monaco in midweek, so the bet I really like here is a Man City win and Both Teams to Score at 15/8.

Let's talk about Haaland and Foden

Would you believe me if I told you that with eight goals in his first six Premier League game, Erling Haaland has made his joint-worst start to a new league season since joining Manchester City?

Well he has!

His numbers are quite remarkable. In both the 2022-23 and 24-25 seasons the brilliant Norwegian scored 10 goals in his first six league games, while in the 2023-24 season he scored eight in his first six, the same number he has this term.

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But in terms of all competitions, for club and country, the start Haaland has made to this campaign is quite astonishing. He has scored at least one in all nine games in which Man City or Norway have scored, he has scored at least one in eight consecutive games, and in total this season he has scored 17 goals in just 10 game played.

Not surprisingly Haaland is odds-on at 8/11 to score anytime against Brentford and he's just 7/2 to score a brace. It's impossible to put anyone off having those bets but instead I'm keen on backing Phil Foden who has an excellent record against the Bees.

Foden is back starting regularly for City and he looks very sharp. The Englishman has scored two and registered two assists in his seven games played this term, and against Brentford he has scored six goals in his last five matches.

But here's the killer stat. Man City have scored five goals in their last two visits to the Gtech Stadium... Foden has scored all five! He scored two in last season's 2-2 draw away to Brentford and he scored a hat-trick in City's 3-1 win the year before last.