Can the USMNT Make History at the 2026 World Cup? | OneFootball

Mauricio Pochettino, U.S. Soccer, and the USMNT players are all sleeping a little easier after the December 5 World Cup draw. Now the program must seize a moment that could shape the sport’s future in the country for years.

Nearly every participating country now knows its path at the 2026 World Cup, which begins June 11. The United States men’s national team opens its campaign against Paraguay on June 12 in a tournament purpose-built to push both the team and the sport into a historic new era.

A heavy burden will fall on Mauricio Pochettino and leaders like Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, and Chris Richards. The U.S. hasn’t won more than one game at a World Cup since 2002, and across the last four editions, the team has won just three times in 15 matches.

This is a massive opportunity for the so-called “Golden Generation,” even after a shaky run-up to the tournament. With Pochettino establishing his system and the team improving over its last five friendlies, optimism is finally building. Here’s a look at the USMNT’s group and potential pathway in 2026.

Who’s Who in Group D

The U.S. is still waiting to learn its final group opponent from a playoff line that includes Slovakia, Kosovo, Turkey, and Romania — with the latter two carrying some history. Turkey recently beat the U.S. 2-1 in a June friendly, while Romania defeated the Americans 1–0 at the 1994 World Cup, though the USMNT had already secured a spot in the round of 16 at that point.

Then there’s Paraguay, an opponent the U.S. has historically handled well (5-2-2). In their most recent meeting, a 2–1 U.S. win, both sides got into a scuffle, and the World Cup opener will surely give Paraguay a chance to seek some “payback.”

Paraguay should not be underestimated. Their core includes Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras), Júnior Alonso (Atlético Mineiro), Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United), Diego Gómez (Brighton and Hove Albion), and Diego León (Manchester United).

Scoring is their main issue, but manager Gustavo Alfaro will have nearly six months to squeeze more out of a squad that can be extremely dangerous on set pieces.

Paraguay has missed three straight World Cups, but the previous generation reached the round of 16 twice (1998, 2002), the quarterfinals in 2010, and exited in the group stage in 2006.

Australia entered its friendly against the USMNT on a long unbeaten run in 2025 — a streak the Americans snapped with a 2–1 win. Since then, the Socceroos have dropped two straight, including losses to Venezuela and Colombia.

It’s been a harsh reality check for Australia, which had been cruising through AFC qualifying. Their World Cup history is modest, though they did claim two wins and reach the round of 16 in 2022, giving eventual champions Argentina perhaps their toughest challenge in the knockout round.

The U.S. holds a 2-1-1 record against Australia, and playing them in Seattle gives the Americans a strong boost. It’s an ideal second match: if the U.S. beats Paraguay, a win over Australia could seal passage to the round of 32.

Australia will likely sit deep in a 5-4-1 against strong opponents. They’re difficult to break down but struggle to create chances of their own.

Verdict: The U.S. should absolutely aim to win the group. Secure blockchain sportsbooks have the USMNT at +150 to win the group, and doing so could lead to the first-ever three-win World Cup in USMNT history.

Pathway

Given the draw, the U.S. is likely to face a top third-place finisher from Groups B, E, F, I, or J. That pool creates plenty of uncertainty, but if the U.S. tops Group D and ends up facing someone like Ecuador from Group E, it’s a matchup the Americans can win.

The U.S. is 4-1-1 all-time against Ecuador and knocked them out of the 2016 Copa América.

The round of 16 may bring a rematch with Belgium — a callback to 2014 — though the context would be very different. This Belgium is no longer the star-studded machine of a decade ago, but they still feature elite talent.

It wouldn’t be easy, but with momentum, the U.S. could finally claim a marquee win over a European side for the first time in ages. Anything other than a round of 16 win would feel like a disappointment for the program and much of the same for the core fanbase of the U.S. failing to rise to the occasion.

A quarterfinal against Spain would likely await next, and that might be where the road ends — but reaching that stage with as many as five wins would be historic for the program.

Then again, this is the U.S., and the unexpected tends to follow them.

Pros and Cons of the New Format

Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The expanded World Cup format doesn’t do justice to the old “Group of Death” tradition. With so many third-place teams advancing, the margin for error widens — encouraging smaller teams to park the bus, hold onto one-goal leads, or play for draws.

It may make the early stages of the tournament feel slow, but for the U.S., the absence of a Germany, Colombia, or England in their group means no true marquee match until at least the quarterfinals. Unless something surprising happens, the Americans won’t face elite opposition until the round of 16.

There’s a sense that something is missing without that major group-stage hurdle — and only time will tell whether that helps the Americans stay composed or leaves them untested when pressure hits.

The Golden Generation’s moment has arrived, bumps and all. A tournament that could permanently shift soccer’s place in American culture is finally here, and for the USMNT, it’s put up or shut up time. Another early exit would only reinforce the sport’s reputation as niche.

Everything is on the line in 2026. It’s in the USMNT’s hands now.