Carabao Cup final: the match that will kickstart an era of Arsenal dominance? | OneFootball

Significance of the Wembley showdown is not lost on Mikel Arteta as Pep Guardiola’s years of dominance begin to fade

Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola have both previously sat in the Wembley dugout for a Carabao Cup final between Arsenal and Manchester City. The pair were side-by-side in 2018, Arteta serving as Guardiola’s assistant and playing his part in widening the chasm between the two clubs.

There feels a similar significance to Sunday’s final, eight years on. The dominance of the Guardiola years is fading and speculation continues that he could leave City at the end of the season. For Arsenal, this is a chance to launch a trophy-winning period against a side who will define their season. Only City can stop them claiming the Premier League title and the teams could meet again at Wembley in the FA Cup.

The Gunners lead City by nine points in the title race, but they have played a game more and have to travel to the Etihad Stadium. Beat City here and that trip should hold no fear.

It is six years since Arsenal last won a trophy and nine years since they did so with fans in attendance. They have had the perfect build-up to this occasion, one that could be the rocket fuel for an historic season. Lose, though, and Arteta’s wait to graduate from apprentice to master will be extended further.

Mikel Arteta is targeting a quadruple

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Fighting on four fronts

If Arsenal do win this final on Sunday, quadruple talk will set in. It has primarily been this Wembley showdown that has kept such considerations in check. For all Arteta will continue to insist the schedule is too relentless to look beyond the next game, the reality is clear to everyone. Arsenal will return after the international break for FA Cup and Champions League quarter-finals against Southampton and Sporting. Win this final and it is on.

The strength of Arsenal’s squad, combined with some generous draws, means that Arteta has not had to seriously prioritise one competition over another. Beat City and the Gunners will head into April with all four plates still spinning.

In the dressing room after Arsenal beat Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday, Arteta immediately turned his focus to the Carabao Cup final as he addressed his players. He hammered home the need for the club to get back to winning trophies. Arteta knows better than most how important this final is in terms of what comes next.

That first Guardiola trophy in 2018 was followed by City winning the Premier League title just a few months later. Arteta was there again the following season when the club won both trophies.

Asked on Friday about the possibility of the Carabao Cup being a springboard for Arsenal’s season, Arteta said: “Certainly, yes, because winning a trophy helps more for sure. It gives you confidence, it gives you the feeling that when it comes to that moment, you can do it, and you have enough resources to achieve what you want.”

Arteta has big selection calls to make, not least whether to stick with cup goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga or bring in David Raya.

Kepa played in two Carabao Cup finals for Chelsea and neither will fill him with much pride. In 2019, he extraordinarily refused to be substituted, demanding to stay on. The final ultimately ended in a penalty-shootout defeat. Three years later, he was brought on just for the shootout. Kepa was duly beaten 11 times in a row and then missed the decisive spot-kick himself.

Kepa, should he start, will be desperate for a different ending this time and he would be coming into a side with momentum firmly behind them.

Arsenal have been galvanised by magic moments this week. Max Dowman’s heroics against Everton provided some of the most memorable celebrations in the Emirates’ recent history and that energy has flowed through the club.

It was backed up against Leverkusen by Arsenal’s most convincing attacking performance in weeks. Central to that was Eberechi Eze and he will relish a Wembley return. It was on that pitch in May last year when his goal fired Crystal Palace to FA Cup glory over City and he is bubbling back into form at the perfect time.

Across the past four seasons, Eze averages a goal every two games between March and May. From August to February, the figure drops to not even one in five. He is peaking and so, it would appear, are Arsenal. History is there to be made.

Man City are out of Europe and losing ground in the title race

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City on the wane?

City by contrast are leaking oil at an alarming rate. Dropped points to Nottingham Forest and West Ham have handed control of the title race to Arsenal and their Champions League campaign ended in chastening fashion.

Guardiola cancelled training on Monday, the day before City faced Real Madrid in the second leg of their last-16 tie, but there was little chance to see if that injected some energy into the squad.

Within 20 minutes they were down to ten men after Bernardo Silva’s red card. More than an hour played with ten men and a 5-2 aggregate defeat is ugly preparation for a final.

City need to land a blow and fast. The Carabao Cup has taken on an added significance for Guardiola’s side as one of their last remaining opportunities to derail Arsenal.

However, it was noticeable that Guardiola was keen to take some of the temperature out of the final on Tuesday night. “I am old enough to see that one football game is not the big happiness or a loss is the end of the world, it’s just a game,” he said. “We will challenge them and we have to see how we are competing against them.”

Guardiola gave his players Wednesday and Thursday off in the hope of resetting after their European exit. At his press conference, he emphasised how much there was still to play for this season.

“Of course we have disappointment, with Forest and West Ham and many things happen in the two games v Real Madrid,” Guardiola said.

“But still two months we have three competitions to be there, and we think of that.”

One key battle will come up front, where the resumption of Erling Haaland’s personal battle with Gabriel will be a compelling watch. Haaland has scored in his past three league matches against Arsenal, even if none of those have come in wins. Both Haaland and Gabriel have been keen to try and aggravate, seeking the other out when celebrating goals.

The Norwegian’s form has fallen away significantly in 2026, with just three goals in 11 league matches. City have stopped being able to get the best out of Haaland for such an extended period for the first time. Antoine Semenyo has stepped up impressively since arriving. However, it is hard to escape the feeling that unless Haaland rediscovers his ruthless goalscoring touch, City’s chances of downing Arsenal on Sunday, and over the course of the season, are much slimmer.

Pep Guardiola and Man City coach Mikel Arteta winning the Carabao Cup in 2018

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The League Cup launchpad

Whatever the result at Wembley, far more conclusions will be drawn on what it means for Arsenal than for Guardiola’s side. This final is not particularly a test of City’s mentality but simply whether they are good enough on the day.

After so much success over the past decade, the desperation to lift the Carabao Cup cannot be as intense as it is for Arsenal. This feels like so much more for the Gunners and Arteta has urged his players not to approach the occasion with caution.

"When it comes to the moment to attack the trophy and take it and bring it home, that's when you need to be placed to step up and make a difference,” he said.

There is not just in the necessity of ending the trophy drought for Arsenal, but the broader picture of what is to come. The Premier League and Champions League is how Arsenal’s season will be defined and City’s miserable week has in some way complicated that.

Had Guardiola’s side progressed past Real Madrid, they would have faced Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals. Those two legs would have been played ahead of league clashes with Chelsea and Arsenal. Instead they will have free midweeks, a chance to breathe and reset. For Arsenal, the demands will remain relentless at least into mid-April.

The Gunners have a buffer, knowing that even losing at the Etihad, combined with City winning their game in hand, would still leave them three points in front.

However, it is a psychological freedom that could be most beneficial. Beating City at Wembley would release some of the tension at Arsenal, cementing in the players’ heads that they are now the better side.

Arteta and his players are unbeaten against City in six matches but there is a context to that record. Three have been draws. One win came early in the season, when the pressure was not quite so intense. The 5-1 win last season was when Arsenal’s chief rivals were Liverpool.

Not since the FA Cup semi-finals in 2020, then, have Arsenal got the better of City in a match that has been decisive for both sides.

With fatigue hitting, this final could come down to who can best empty the tank at Wembley and for who motivation runs highest.

The mental strain of the fixture list has been monumental on both sets of players. Until Tuesday night, City too were still in the quadruple hunt, even if that had been more muted.

Declan Rice admitted he was “shattered” after once again facing barely a 72-hour turnaround between matches. However, a tangible prize is bang in front of the players for the first time.

All season Arsenal have been stalked by the fear of what City have been and what City could be. Memories of the all-conquering juggernaut are still raw, suspicions that it could all click still prevalent. Now, though, they face the reality of what City are. Right now that is a beatable side and Arsenal must prove that, as much to themselves as anyone else.