Champions League Decision Day – The Games That Matter | OneFootball

On Wednesday the final dramatic day of Champions League group stage play wraps up. All 18 games kickoff at 3pm ET / noon PT. My co-worker Gary Striker, as big a Chelsea fan as there is, will deign to watch his Blues take on Napoli. He’ll be glued to Paramount’s Golazo Show!, which will bounce between games. Golazo Show! host Nico Cantor will actually be flying into London to join the usual pundits Jamie Carragher, Micah ‘Big Meeks’ Parsons and Thierry Henry, and hostess Kate Scott. It should be 90+ minutes of whiplash-inducing cuts from goal to goal.

For those who prefer to watch a complete game, here’s our rundown of the most important fixtures, at least as it regards the final table, standings, and whether a club survives into the Playoff. Clubs will fit into one of four categories:

The Thirteen Pointers

Eight teams sit on this number, and they stretch from 6th place down to 13th.

Paris Saint-Germain (6th on 13 pts.) vs. Newcastle United (7th on 13 pts.)

Sixth vs. seventh in a classic whichever-one-remains-standing fixture that probably guarantees Top 8 for the winner, and means two extra games for the loser. Both teams are in fine form, as well. This should be a cracker!

Napoli (25th on 8 pts.) vs. Chelsea (8th on 13 pts.)

To be frank, Napoli are on paper too good to be in this situation. But here they are, in a desperate must-win scenario against Chelsea. The visitors have won five straight across four different competitions under new manager Liam Rosenior, who has yet to make a line-up mistake.

Barcelona (9th on 13 pts.) vs. F.C. København (26th on 8 pts.)

F.C. København will be operating under the illusionary hope that having eight points might give them a chance. Unfortunately for them, they face Barcelona. At home. With something to play for (a Top 8 spot). It was a fun run while it lasted.

Atlético Madrid (12th on 13 pts.) vs. Bodø/Glimt (28th on 6 pts.)

Bodø is the only six-pointer with an actual chance to advance, given their low -2 goal differential. However, they will have to topple Atlético Madrid in their Metropolitano fortress. They were brave giant-killers last week, can they possibly do it again?

Athletic Club (23rd on 8 pts.) vs. Sporting CP (10th on 13 pts.)

Sporting has heretofore punched far above their weight. If they were to somehow squeak into the Top 8 it would be a real coup. Athletic Club already shocked Napoli last week, potentially knocking them out of the competition. They can’t ruin Sporting’s chances, but can ensure their own survival with a win.

Manchester City (11th on 13 pts.) vs. Galatasaray (17th on 10 pts.)

Their loss to Bodø last week knocked Manchester out of the Top 8, the only English club to suffer that fate. A win could move them back up, which would bring welcome respite to a club struggling through injury and a brutal schedule. Poor Galatasaray will need to be nearly perfect to take any points from this one.

The Six Pointers

While six-pointers all have mathematical chances to advance, realistically way too many things need to fall into place to make it happen. Bodø was covered above, below are the others.

Benfica (29th on 6 pts.) vs. Real Madrid (3rd on 15 pts.)

Even without hosting Los Blancos, Benfica had no chance. Of course, this fixture offers up some drama fodder with José Mourinho always capable of some sideline antics, particularly against one of his old clubs. A far more interesting storyline is how Kylian Mbappé could break Ronaldo’s group stage scoring record.

Pafos (30th on 6 pts.) vs. Slavia Prague (34th on 3 pts.)

A hopeless six-pointer against an already eliminated side?. Don’t bother.

Union St.-Gilloise (31st on 6 pts.) vs. Atalanta (13th on 13 pts.)

Let’s pretend USG are good at home (hint: they’re not. They’ve lost all three). Even with that conceit, advancing out of the elimination zone would be a tall ask. For Atalanta, this game is a chance for redemption after that stinging last minute loss to Athletic Club last week.

Ajax Amsterdam (32nd on 6 pts.) vs. Olympiakos (24th on 8 pts.)

Ajax’s -12 goal differential has essentially dug their grave. Still, a thumping home win over Greek champs Olympiakos would make the notoriously expectant Ajax supporters feel better after a disastrous campaign. Olympiakos needs a win. Anything less will pop that fragile bubble that currently puts them in the final qualification spot.

All The Rest

Arsenal (1st on 21 pts.) vs. Kairat Almaty (36th on 1 pt.)

There’s an asterisk on this one. With a win, Arsenal would become the first team in the revised CL format to go undefeated in the group stage. With a shutout, they would have the second lowest goals conceded (2). They won’t be able to tie Inter Milan’s solitary concession from last season. They’re a shoe-in to also set a new record for goal differential. Currently they’re at +18. I would expect to see at least another three or four scored in this match. Kairat Almaty are dead last, but can hold their chins up as they at least earned a point. Scoring a goal against the lauded Arsenal defense would be akin to winning.

PSV Eindhoven (22nd on 8 pts.) vs. Bayern Munich (2nd on 18 pts.)

Really bad luck for PSV here. They absolutely need to win to have any hope to move on. So to host an insanely strong Bayern team in the final match… as the Dutch would say: “Jammer!”

Liverpool (4th on 15 pts.) vs. FK Qarabag (18th on 10 pts.)

Outside of Sporting, Qarabag’s performance is among the most surprising in the group phase. That’s why Liverpool can’t take this game lightly. Manager Arne Slot knows his every move is under a microscope, and the Anfield faithful expect nothing less than a Top 8 finish.

Eintracht Frankfurt (33rd on 4 pts.) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (5th on 14 pts.)

Because it’s unlikely ALL teams on 13 points will lose, Spurs will need to win this one to ensure a Top 8 spot. Luckily, they’re playing Eintracht, who bless opponents with the worst defense in the group stage (conceded 19 goals). Tottenham have been effective in the CL campaign, the polar opposite of their league form.

Borussia Dortmund (16th on 11 pts.) vs. Internazionale (14th on 12 pts.)

This is a good one. The winner locks in their upper-tier Playoff spot, and maybe an outsider’s chance at the Top 8. The loser won’t be going home, but will take a tumble down the table.

AS Monaco (21st on 9 pts.) vs. Juventus (15th on 12 pts.)

Now here’s a match with some teeth. To be assured of safety, hosts Monaco need a win. A draw might be enough, but their fate would rest in others’ hands. A Juventus victory might be enough to get them into the Top 8, but it would require losses from many of the 13 point teams above them.

Club Brugge (27th on 7 pts.) vs. Marseille (19th on 9 pts.)

That two point gap might as well be the Grand Canyon, as far as Brugge is concerned. Sure, they’ll play to win, but in the end they’ll still be eliminated. Marseille, on the other hand, would be safe with a victory.

Bayer Leverkusen (20th on 9 pts.) vs. Villarreal (35th on 1 pt.)

Few teams exhibit CL vs. national league dichotomy as clearly as Villarreal. Fourth place in La Liga is good; their CL campaign? Not so good. Terrible even. Bayer Leverkusen should steamroll a side with little to play for but pride (as a team) and a desperate hope to avoid injury (as an individual).