Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham: Sorry Spurs to end the season in miserable style | OneFootball

Eintracht Frankfurt v TottenhamThursday, 20:00Live on TNT Sports 3

Frankfurt in form, Spurs are not

Wolves's 4-2 victory over Tottenham at the weekend was the first time the home side had scored four goals in a Premier League game. In other words, not exactly the preparation Ange Postecoglou was looking for ahead of a crucial moment in his side's season.

And where Tottenham floundered to another painful defeat, Eintracht Frankfurt looked precisely the opposite of flimsy at the weekend. They breezed 3-0 past Heidenheim in the Bundesliga, racking up 3.7 xG, and reaffirming the potential they have to do serious damage in sharp transitions and counter attacks. Their star man, Hugo Ekitike, was in the goals again too.

Stats against Spurs

Indeed, the case for Tottenham advancing past Eintracht Frankfurt has only worsened from where it was prior to the tie. Another poor performance at Molineux only adds more pressure, and failing to win in the first leg against the German side puts them on the back foot going to the Deutsche Bank Park - a notoriously difficult place to play.

Of teams who have failed to win the first leg at home in a Europa League knockout stage tie, only one of the last 23 to do so has gone on to progress (Benfica in 2023-24, v Rangers). And none of the last 13 sides in that position have gone on to do so.

Keeping the home side out on the night looks highly unlikely too. Frankfurt have scored at least once in each of their last 25 games at the Deutsche Bank Park across all competitions, averaging over two goals per match in this time (2.2), while Tottenham will make the trip this week on a run of 10 games without a clean sheet.

Hard to see Spurs progressing

With the contrasting dynamics of these two sides, it's hard to believe in Tottenham's capacity to emerge as victors on Thursday night. Eintracht Frankfurt have only lost three of their 27 home matches in the Europa League, and come into this one on an 11-game unbeaten run on their own patch in the competition.

Factor in the history that tells us going away from home in a second leg - without an aggregate advantage - rarely ends well for the travelling side, and Tottenham hardly look like a team who can be an exception.

I'll take Frankfurt to win and both teams to score on the night. Tottenham will make their push and may end up having to chase the game, but the home side are too quick and skilled on the counter for the visitors to keep at bay - especially if they have to open themselves up.

Impressive Ekitike has already given Spurs a fright

Tottenham have already had a first-hand look at Ekitike, and it wasn't a good outcome for them. His goal in the first leg of this tie means they'll head into Thursday's fixture without an advantage - and if they're to earn one, it'll have to come the hard way in opposition territory.

The 22-year-old has scored in both of his games played in the last week (v Tottenham and Heidenheim), telling us he's in pretty sharp condition. And it's been the same case in European competition of late, too. Ekitike has netted in three of his last five Europa League matches, including the last two versus Ajax and Tottenham.

Meanwhile, his record when playing on home soil has been outstanding over an extended period. The Frankfurt forward has netted 16 goals across his last 21 home starts in all competitions, only failing to score in five of those matches. Particularly if Tottenham find themselves having to recover a deficit, the conditions for Ekitike to punish them in space and through sharp attacks should be extremely ripe.

Conditions ripe for Romero card

Along with Ekitike to get on the scoresheet, I'll add in a card for one of the men who'll be tasked with trying to keep the Frenchman at bay, in the form of Cristian Romero.

Nobody made more fouls than him (3) in the first leg of this tie. Meanwhile, Romero has made 10 fouls across his last five games in the knockout stages of a European competition, including cards in two of the last four (one of which was a red card).

In a game played in a hostile atmosphere, where Tottenham will have to balance their attacking aggression with dealing with a dangerous Frankfurt side in transition, Romero could quite easily find himself in some awkward positions here.