Everton v West Ham: Santo appointment can help land low-scoring goals bet | OneFootball

Everton v West HamMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Average start for Toffees and Nuno replaces sacked Potter

There's been a lot of positivity surrounding Everton at the start of the new season but then you take a look at the Premier League table and you see the Toffees in the bottom half - albeit with a game in hand on all the teams above them come Monday night - and they've also made an early exit in the EFL Cup.

In fact Everton's two league wins this season came courtesy of a home win in their first game at their new stadium - amidst a carnival atmosphere when it was impossible not to be pumped up - and a single-goal victory against a Wolves side that had lost five out of five league games going into the weekend fixtures.

David Moyes' men lost without scoring to newly-promoted Leeds, failed to beat an Aston Villa team that can't score for toffee (pardon the pun) and then lost the Merseyside derby last weekend. And in midweek they lost comfortably to Wolves, the team that have lost five out of six in the league and sit rock bottom of the Premier League table.

Not such a positive start then! Not in my eyes anyway.

But it's certainly better than the start West Ham have made to the new season, and on Saturday Graham Potter paid the ultimate price after overseeing the Hammers lose four of their first five Premier League games as well as suffering an early exit in the EFL Cup, ironically to Wolves.

Nuno Espirito Santo is the new man in charge, which seems a good appointment given West Ham's defensive woes. The Hammers conceded an alarming 13 goals in their four league defeats this term and they also conceded three in the EFL Cup defeat to Wolves, so you can bet your bottom dollar Nuno will be getting to work on his defence in the build-up to Monday night's game.

Low-scoring game fancied with Hammers set to defend

Everton are 7/10 favourites to win the game (West Ham 4/1, Draw 14/5) - and deservedly so - but the managerial change at West Ham over the weekend has certainly changed the dynamics of this encounter.

Under Potter, knowing that only a win would save his job, we could have expected West Ham to go to the Hill Dickinson Stadium and play an attacking game, and we could have been set for a very entertaining affair. Under Nuno I think it will almost be the opposite.

We don't know exactly how much time the new West Ham boss has had on the training pitch with his new team, but I'd be staggered if he hasn't been working on defensive plays. At Nottingham Forest, Nuno generally adopted a defensively structured game, conceding possession but being very compact and difficult to break down with the aim of hitting teams on the counter attack when turning the ball over.

He's likely to adapt the same tactics at West Ham, and almost certainly in this game which leads me to believe that Under 2.5 Goals is the way to play at 5/6. Last season, Nuno took his Forest side to Goodison Park and won the game 2-0 despite having just 36% possession.

Everton are yet to concede a goal at their new stadium with all three games played there ending with Under 2.5 Goals paying out, so consider also the Under 1.5 Goals option at 12/5, and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing the 0-0 Correct Score at 10/1, which is how the game finished when the Toffees hosted Aston Villa in their last home game.

Gueye can out-shoot Everton's star man

In terms of player bets, then all eyes are likely to be on Jack Grealish who has made a wonderful start to his Everton career, registering four assists in his four starts to date. However, in terms of shots there isn't much difference between him and Everton's tireless midfielder Idrissa Gueye.

Grealish has registered seven shots this season with two being on target, while Gueye has had nine shots at goal with two on target. Yet in Betfair's Match Ups market Gueye can be backed at 16/5 to Have More Shots than Grealish, and at 5/1 to have More Shots on Target than Everton's star man.

Jack Grealish

5 appearances for Everton this season

Goals

0

Assists

4

Shots

7

Shots per 90

1.7

Shots on Target

2

Shots on Target per 90

0.5

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Idrissa Gueye

5 appearances for Everton this season

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I like both bets in all honesty, the odds seem very generous in relation to this season's stats, and in a game where I fully expect West Ham to defend deep and frustrate the Toffees then the home side could be reduced to shooting from distance which makes Gueye a big player in the shots markets.

For the Hammers, Jarrow Bowen is undoubtedly their star man and is way out in front in terms of shots (12) and shots on target (6), and that means he's favourite against every player bar Everton striker Beto in the shots-related Match Ups markets.

In the anticipation that West Ham will set out to defend then Bowen could be worth taking on with some of Everton's attacking players, for example, Iliman Ndiaye can be backed at 9/5 to register more shots than him and the aforementioned Grealish is 15/8 to have more shots on target. However, I'll stick with one of the Gueye bets as my second tip for the game.