Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 2 Brentford 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Wednesday night, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Brighton 0.56 v Villa 1.21 (0-3)

Bournemouth 2.00 v Ipswich 1.41 (1-2)

Man City 2.07 v Leicester 0.10 (2-0)

Newcastle 2.27 v Brentford 1.53 (2-1)

Southampton 0.69 v Palace 0.94 (1-1)

Liverpool 1.30 v Everton 0.82 (1-0)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

The draw at St Mary’s seeing very similar Expected Goals stats for Southampton (0.69) and Palace (0.94), a game of few clear chances and no surprise to see the final scoreline fit in with those stats.

In the other five Wednesday matches, if four cases the team with the higher Expected Goals stats picking up the win.

The exception that proves the rule was Bournemouth (2.00) against Ipswich (1.41), not a great difference in the Expected Goals stats but still, the away side with more clinical finishing despite slightly fewer quality chances.

Man City, Liverpool and Villa all having better Expected Goals stats than their opponents and winning.

The same at Newcastle United (2.27) v Brentford (1.53). The visitors had their moments but United had more and better chances, which is on top of that incredible Sandro Tonali strike. The chances of scoring that was measured at just 0.01 when it comes to Expected Goals!

Newcastle 2 Brentford 1 – Wednesday 2 April 7.45pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 45+2, Tonali 74

Mbeuno 66 pen

Possession was Newcastle 48% Brentford 52%

Total shots were Newcastle 21 Brentford 12

Shots on target were Newcastle 4 Brentford 3

Corners were Newcastle 4 Brentford 5

Touches in the box Newcastle 35 Brentford 37

Newcastle team v Brentford:

Pope, Trippier (Krafth 89), Schar, Burn, Livramento, Joelinton, Tonali, Bruno, Barnes (Miley 98), Isak (Wilson 66), Murphy (Willock 66)

Unused subs:

Dubravka, Shahar, Longstaff, Osula, Neave

(Match Report – Either a celebration of all things Newcastle, or a crashing reality check… Read HERE)

(Newcastle 2 Brentford 1 – Match ratings and comments on all the Newcastle United players – Read HERE)