Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after West Ham 3 Newcastle 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These were two Premier League matches on Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

As you can see, interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

In both matches, the team with the higher Expected Goals stat also won the match.

In the match at the Etihad, there was a difference of 1.59 (2.49 v 0.90), clearly Man City with better/more chances than Bournemouth, fully deserving to win.

The other match stats at that match back up the Expected Goals info, Man City had more shots (15 v 8), more efforts on target (8 v 5), more touches in the opposition box (43 v 17).

West Ham didn’t have quite as high an Expected Goals stats advantage over Newcastle, as Man City did over Bournemouth, but the Hammers still had an 0.89 (1.41 v 0.52) Expected Goals advantage over the Magpies.

The other match stats show West Ham with more shots (15 v 12) than Newcastle, more efforts on target (9 v 4), whilst touches in the opposition box show West Ham actually one less (21 v 22) than NUFC. The possession stat showed West ham only 38% and Newcastle 62%.

This simply fits in with what we watched with our own eyes, Newcastle had the ball a lot more and had fractionally more touches in the opposition box than West Ham, BUT struggled to create many clear chances and test the keeper, lacking ideas and penetration.

West Ham 3 Newcastle 1 – Sunday 2 November 2025 2pm

Newcastle United:

Murphy 4

West Ham:

Paqueta 35, Botman OG 45+5, Soucek 90+7

Possession was Newcastle 62% West Ham 38%

Total shots were Newcastle 12 West Ham 15

Shots on target were Newcastle 4 West Ham 9

Corners were Newcastle 6 West Ham 7

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 22 West Ham 21

Newcastle team v West Ham:

Pope, Krafth (Schar 45), Thiaw, Botman (Barnes 65), Burn, Bruno, Joelinton, Tonali, Gordon (Ramsey 46), Woltemade (Osula 46), Murphy (Elanga 77)