Expensive transfer window for Newcastle United? | OneFootball

The transfer window has closed, generating a variety of responses from the Newcastle United faithful.

What have be learned and how can we move forward?

Disappointment at the limited nature of purchases is understandable. There may be good reasons.

Elsewhere, supporters have been pleased with certain players being retained, despite media speculation of our being ravaged by the current top teams.

The fact is that Newcastle United go into the first half of the season with (as well as the likes of Lewis Miley, Alex Murphy and Lewis Hall who still qualify as Under 21s), 25 senior players, five of them goalkeepers, two of them long-term injured and perhaps a few more who have a pattern of injuries. There are still a few who could be unavailable, with transfer windows in other leagues being later than our own.

The Dan Ashworth saga has hung over the club, finally apparently resolved on 1st July with the appointment of Mitchell. Prior to his gardening leave, Ashworth had been reported as being unenthusiastic about extending Joelinton’s contract. Has two months been enough for Mitchell to properly absorb himself into Newcastle United DNA , let alone exert his influence over purchases?

Ultimately, the public pursuit of the top target, Marc Guehi, was unsuccessful. A late bid for Elanga, a player who has impressed playing against us, also failed. Was the personnel infrastructure sufficiently in place to realistically fix the two perceived problem positions?

Some have already pointed to the potential cost of perceived failure. We can all ask the question “what if?”

Depending on where we are at the end of the season, we can only wonder “what if” we miss out on Champions League by a point or two. “What if” we just miss out on Europa League. The former appears to guarantee extra revenue of close on £40 million as a minimum.

There has been another significant cost, yet to be discussed by the football media. As had been highlighted previously in these columns, Ashworth was notably unable to shift players we might want to sell, in order to reinvest. The same could be said about Mitchell.

Players whose contracts are up at the end of the season include Wilson and Dubravka, whose value will be zero unless the contracts are extended. Those up in 2026 include Almiron, Trippier, Targett and Longstaff, whose value will be negligible going into the final year. It seems to be a reasonable argument that this will result in a real cost to the club in reduced potential transfer fees.

Many have bemoaned that we have missed out on seeing Minteh, who didn’t get to play in a single competitive game for us. Anderson might be one for the future but who may not have had much chance to develop given other midfield options in a fully fit squad. We may benefit from sell on fees in the future.

On the plus side, we finally have a quality Bosman signing in Kelly. Osula appears to have basic qualities that can be built upon, even though we are yet to see the time frame.

Perhaps the biggest plus is that the board have revealed that we do have the ability to spend, apparently £65 million having been bid for Guehi, maybe even £50 million for Elanga.

The finances demand more scrutiny and please bear with it for a few moments.

As we all know by now, a club is allowed to make a loss of £105 million over a three year period to stay within the FFP/PSR initiatives.

Here is what the position has been over the last few seasons (operating profit/loss) where we know the figures (not yet available for the 2023-24 season): 2020-21 £13.7 million loss 2021-22 £71.7 million loss 2022-23 £66.5 million loss

We also know that there are “allowable adjustments” for academy, infrastructure and women’s football, although these are likely to be in the £millions rather than £10s of millions. Other than Manchester United, who have been allowed to extend Covid allowances for longer, clubs were allowed to sideline those costs in 2020-21. That may be why we scraped into avoiding a points deduction.

For last season, 2023-24, more commercial deals, combined with Champions League revenues, increased income, but we will not know the effect on profit until those accounts are published, probably in December or January. The sales of young talent, if accurately reported in the order of £60 million (minus sell on clauses) will have necessarily put the club into profit for 2023-24.

For the current season, the 2021-22 loss is lost from the three year cycle. Money that was not spent in the summer could be spent in January.

It might be argued that the season takes shape in the first half, the second half being what finally decides league position. If we are in touch with Champions League opportunities, then the appeal for joining a team that challenges might be particularly attractive to teams drifting in mid-table, such as Palace or Forest. Who knows, it might be that talent like Miley is revealed from the plethora of youngsters signed in recent seasons.

On balance, yes, the window has been disappointing for most, arguably a kick in the teeth. We can hope that the Newcastle United hierarchy have learned from the experience.

Most importantly, we shall find out which players are up for the challenge. We can hope that the youngsters prove their worth.

Those of us who have been waiting for success for decades will be naturally frustrated. The key thing now is how the current owners respond to their learning opportunities. As time goes by, those FFP/PRS restrictions will be fading,

Planning for the next Newcastle United transfer window starts now.