Greece v Scotland: Tzolis to score in Greek revenge mission | OneFootball

World Cup 2026

Christos Tzolis to score in a Greece win is 3/1

Scotland are just two wins away from making the World Cup but this is where their luck may run out under Steve Clarke, says Lewis Jones...

Greece v ScotlandSaturday, 19:45Live on BBC

Clarke's Tartan Army just two wins away...

Despite an overall sense of negativity towards boss Steve Clarke, Scotland are just two wins away from automatic qualification to the World Cup. Their performances in Group C have rarely thrilled or convinced but Clarke has steered them an unbeaten campaign, taking seven points from four games, where they've managed to deliver at big moments.

If they could head to Greece and pick up three points, it would leave them with potentially a scenario where a win in their final game at Hampden Park against Denmark would send them through as Group C winners.

There is a job to be done in Athens though as avoiding defeat really is a must for their hopes of securing top spot. And despite the seven-point gap between the teams in the standings, the market have Greece as the better team with the hosts 11/10 on the Betfair Sportsbook, Scotland at 13/5 and the Draw at 11/5.

Results, yes. Performances, no.

Some may deem that Scotland price of a tempting nature based on the recent head-to-heads in the last 18 months. Clarke's men have won two of the three fixtures with the Greeks, including registering a 1-0 away win in Athens in the first leg of their Nations League semi-final.

But a quick look at the underlying numbers of those three games paints a very different picture to the actual results. On the expected goals metrics Greece averaged 2.06 to Scotland's 1.14 and they won the shot count 17.3 to nine across the three games. These aren't just marginal advantages, the Greeks were creating clear-cut chances that the scoreline didn't reflect.

That was especially the case at the most recent meeting, where things looked really bleak for the Scots at 1-0 down with 62 minutes gone having only mustered three shots up until that point. Yet, somehow, Clarke's men, more by sheer brute force than tactical acumen, managed to turn the game around scoring with three of their subsequent five shots to win the game 3-1.

Tzolis to end Scot automatic hopes

So, as by digging deeper through the numbers, the Greeks have the weapons that could easily turn the tables here and in Christos Tzolis, they have a genuine elite forward - one that should really be gracing the World Cup this summer.

The 23-year-old has been a revelation for Club Brugge in the last 18 months, combining pace, trickery and an eye for goal that makes him a constant threat in the final third. Tzolis isn't just a creative spark, he's a proven match-winner capable of unlocking even the most stubborn defences. The only surprise is that how Brugge have managed to fend off interest from elsewhere, especially after his performance in the 3-3 draw with Barcelona in the Champions League where he scored and delivered an amazing individual showing.

Scotland will have to plan meticulously to contain him and history shows that containing a player of his calibre is easier said than done - as Barca found out.

His strike-rate for Greece is also respectable, scoring seven goals in his last 14 appearances, including finding the net in Greece's 3-0 win over Scotland at Hampden Park.

The Greeks may have been unlucky in previous clashes, but with Tzolis to the fore, the smart money is on a bit of variance falling Greece's way in this latest match-up. He is 3/1 to score in a Greece win and that is a nice bet to attack.

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Back Tzolis to score and Greece to win @ 3/1