How Man City can avoid defeat to Real Madrid two years on the bounce | OneFootball

Manchester City‘s hopes of retaining the Champions League last season were ended in the quarter-finals by Real Madrid on penalties.

Although Man City will have probably felt they deserved the victory, it was Los Blancos who walked away as victors — en route to winning the Champions League.

Pep Guardiola’s men held 62% possession against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in their 3-3 draw. Both scored their three goals from minimal Expected Goals, with the combined xG in the match only at 1.45 xG.

However, in the 1-1 draw at the Etihad, Man City dominated the game even more so, boasting 67% possession, generating 2.74 xG in the match. But they only scored the one goal. Real Madrid came with a similar plan, having less of the ball, only taking eight shots in the match compared to Man City’s 33 shots. They looked to hurt Guardiola’s side in transitional moments with their abundance of attacking talent.

The average positions maps from the 1-1 draw at the Etihad paint the picture nicely from across both legs. On the left, Man City were pushing players higher up and looking to squeeze the opposition in their own half. On the right, Real Madrid sat deeper, but looked to hit Man City on the counter with particular focus on their left channel.

On both occasions, first in the game at the Bernabeu and then again at the Etihad, Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior would look to both drift to the left side together, creating a 2 vs 1 against Kyle Walker, where they found some joy. Another key factor to bare in mind was that Man City had Rodri in defensive midfield, often putting out fires in transition for Guardiola’s side. This season, however, they have struggled even more in defensive transition moments in his absence.

In the 2023-24 season, Rodri was averaging 4.04 possessions won in the middle third and 2.14 possessions won in the defensive third per 90 minutes. The Spaniard also averaged 0.8 interceptions and 2.14 tackles per 90.

This season, Mateo Kovacic, Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva have been sharing the responsibility in midfield. Gundogan leads for possessions won in the middle third (2.94) and possessions won in the defensive third per 90 (1.47). He has also made the most interceptions in midfield with 0.8 per 90, but Kovacic making the most tackles with 2.67 per 90.

The passing network above belongs to Real Madrid from the 1-1 draw last season between the two sides. This not only shows the defensive shape we spoke about, but also the insistence to keep two players in the forward line for counter attacking moments.

But with the introduction of Kylian Mbappe, Carlo Ancelotti now has the option to put out perhaps the most devastating transitional attacking team in the world against one of the worst defensive transition teams in the world this season.

So with the loss of Rodri (and Walker) for Man City mixed with the addition of Mbappe for Real Madrid, how can Guardiola avoid a counter-attacking masterclass?

Where Man City often looked to be aggressive in last seasons games, they would often commit to a man to man approach, which often left them defending 4 vs 4 in the backline when Real Madrid sent it long. For Real Madrid’s goal in the 1-1 draw, a long balls puts Man City into a 4 vs 4 situation just 11 minutes into the game, with Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr up against Ruben Dias, Rodri, Manuel Akanji and Walker.

Guardiola is likely to stand by his principles, looking to be aggressive against Real Madrid, dominate the ball and control proceedings. But it will be the manner of how he does this that decides the game. By looking to keep a +1 in transition/rest defence (e.g. 5 vs 4 instead of 4 vs 4 in the example above), Man City would be protecting themselves slightly more, allowing an extra player to provide cover on whichever side Real Madrid look to target (as they did down the left last season).

This could mean Matheus Nunes, who has been starting as a makeshift right back, holds his position at fullback throughout the game rather than pushing on too far. It would ensure that left channel can not be overloaded to create 2 vs 1 situations for Real Madrid’s talented forwards.

Man City will also realise in this game they have a chance to exploit some weaknesses in Real Madrid’s current squad situation. Much like Guardiola is missing Rodri, Ancelotti is missing a whole host of defenders, including the very influential Antonio Rudiger who did an excellent job keeping Erling Haaland quiet last season across both legs.

Real Madrid will likely line up with 21-year-old Raul Asencio, who has only made 21 senior appearances for Los Blancos, and Aurelien Tchouameni who is naturally a defensive midfielder.

This could leave Haaland and Guardiola licking their lips at the prospect of setting up in a more defensive manner, affording that +1 in the defensive line, and looking to work the mismatch between Haaland and the opposition centre-back pairing. They did this to great effect this season against Chelsea in the Premier League, recording a 3-1 victory.

This is the passing network for Man City from their 3-1 win against Chelsea in January, which shows the deeper defensive unit. With six players plus the goalkeeper behind the halfway line for many build up routines, Man City looked to draw the opposition press in before going over the top into Haaland. The Norwegian could then link play with Omar Marmoush (LW) and Phil Foden (RW) close to him.

A similar game plan could be efficient against this Real Madrid side, limiting the space in behind for the speedy quartet of Los Blancos to exploit in transition. It will also allow Haaland to pin the central defenders and use his physical prowess over the two of them. This could make for an awkward encounter for the inexperienced Ascencio and makeshift centre-back of Tchouameni.