Inter v Bayern: Lautaro to launch Italian champions into semis | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Lautaro Martinez scored for Inter in the first leg

Inter have one foot in the semi-finals after victory in Munich, and European football expert Kevin Hatchard doesn't anticipate a comeback at the Giuseppe Meazza.

Inter v Bayern Wednesday 16 April, 20:00Live on Discovery+

Inter hitting form at the right time

Simone Inzaghi knows all about balancing the demands of different competitions, and his treble-chasing Inter team are flying at present. The Nerazzurri haven't lost a game since mid-February, they are three points clear at the top of Serie A with six games left, they are in the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia and they are in pole position to reach the final four of the Champions League.

Last week's 2-1 win at Bayern was a fantastic away performance. Inter soaked up plenty of first-half pressure before launching a devastating counter-attack that led to a jaw-dropping outside-of-the-boot finish from Lautaro Martinez, the Italian champions' first effort on target. Even after conceding a late equaliser, Inter just marched up the other end and grabbed a winner through Davide Frattesi, who made a typical box-crashing run before sweeping in the decisive goal.

Frattesi's intervention highlights the strength of the Inter squad. A successful Italy international, Frattesi has sometimes been the odd man out in midfield, with the triumvirate of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barrella preferred by Inzaghi. Frattesi only came on in the 74th minute in Munich, but he was ready to deliver, and Marko Arnautovic's stunning display in the weekend's 3-1 win over Cagliari (he scored the opener and set up Martinez with a world-class pass) shows the depth in attack too.

Young defender Yann Bisseck excelled against Cagliari, scoring with a bullet header, and yet he probably won't start on Wednesday night. At left wing-back, does Inzaghi start Italy's Federico Dimarco, or does he select Carlos Augusto, who set up the winner in Munich. These are nice problems to have for a coach.

Patched-up Bayern will go down swinging

There's an important phrase attached to Bayern and by extension Bavaria: mia san mia, which means we are who we are. This term, Bayern coach Vincent Kompany has tried to tap into that philosophy, and has stuck rigidly to a thrilling but risky brand of attacking football. It has worked well against the Bundesliga's lesser lights, but against some of the big hitters it hasn't always been successful.

Bayern's 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund on Saturday did them no damage in the title race (Bayer Leverkusen had been held to a draw earlier in the day), but it showed what happens when Bayern aren't ruthless enough in front of goal, and it laid bare the club's injury crisis. Min-Jae Kim has been playing through the pain barrier in the absence of Dayot Upamecano and Hiroki Ito, and he was hooked early in the second half against Dortmund. Manuel Neuer's absence means that untested 21-year-old Jonas Urbig has been thrown in at the deep end, and he has floundered. Without the creativity of Jamal Musiala and the drive of Alphonso Davies, Bayern aren't the same team.

It also doesn't help that Harry Kane hasn't been as clinical as usual in recent games. He clipped the post with a golden opportunity against Inter, and against Dortmund he failed with numerous chances. It seems incredibly churlish to criticise a man who has such a phenomenal goalscoring record for Bayern, but the brutal truth is that he was bought to score in Champions League knockout games, not to whack in a hat-trick against Holstein Kiel.

There has also been some heat on Kompany for his decision to leave veteran Thomas Müller out of the starting XI last week. The club's record appearance-maker scored a late leveller as a sub, and then was arguably the player of the match against Dortmund, setting up the opener for Raphael Guerreiro. There was an irony there, as it was full-back Guerreiro who got the number ten role ahead of Müller against Inter.

Neuer had hoped to return from injury at San Siro, but he has fallen short in his recovery, so Urbig will feature again. Urbig is the first keeper in Bayern's history not to keep a clean sheet in his first five Bundesliga matches for the club. Serge Gnabry could get the nod at left-wing after scoring a brilliant goal against Dortmund, while midfielder Aleks Pavlovic is pushing for a recall after recovering from glandular fever.

Inter to see the job through

In last week's first-leg preview I backed Inter to qualify at 2.26, and now they are 1.38 to reach the semi-finals. I'll back them Draw No Bet here in the second leg at 2.08 - Inter are unbeaten in their last 14 Champions League home matches, and they have won their last nine competitive home games (not including the Coppa Italia semi against Milan, which was technically an away game).

Bayern are creaking after a slew of injuries to key players, and Kompany will press high like he always does. I expect Inter to give up some chances, but they'll also generate plenty on the counter. On that basis I'll happily back Lautaro Martinez to score again at 2.8 on the Exchange. The World Cup winner is now Inter's record goalscorer in the Champions League, and he has netted in five of his last eight games. The Argentinean has 23 goals for club and country this season.

Recommended bets