Italy face World Cup play-off drama again, but as top seeds | OneFootball

After two consecutive eliminations in the playoffs, Gattuso’s Azzurri must still fear the playoff specter. Direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup is distant, but Italy can count on one advantage: they will be a seeded team in the draw.

Italy, Azzurri to the World Cup with the thrill of playoffs? History risks repeating itself, but as a seeded team

A frightening déjà vu: Italy at risk of playoffs again

After the painful eliminations against Sweden (2017) and North Macedonia (2022), the Italian national team once again faces a dreaded scenario: the ticket to the 2026 World Cup could once again come through the playoffs. The conditional still applies, but the reality is clear: direct qualification seems distant, and Rino Gattuso’s Azzurri will have to prepare mentally for a new obstacle course.

The only hope to avoid the playoff depends on Norway’s results, as they will face Estonia on November 13. Only a misstep by the Nordics and an Italian victory in the head-to-head could change the story. But after two missed editions, optimism gives way to caution.

How the 2026 World Cup playoffs work

The rules remain similar to recent editions:

16 European national teams will take part in the playoffs (the 12 group runners-up from qualifying plus 4 Nations League group winners not yet qualified).

The teams will be split into four mini-brackets of four selections each.

Each bracket features a semifinal and a final, both single-leg ties.

The first semifinal is played at home by the national team with the better FIFA ranking; the venue for the final is decided by draw.

On November 21 in Zurich, during the official draw, Italy will certainly be a seeded team, thanks to a favorable FIFA ranking. A small advantage ahead of an inevitably tricky path.

The current seeding pots for the European playoffs

With three matchdays still to play, here is how the four playoff pots would look today:

Pot 1: Italy, Turkey, Ukraine, Sweden Pot 2: Serbia, Poland, Czech Republic, Scotland Pot 3: Hungary, Slovakia, Macedonia, Bosnia Pot 4: Wales, Romania, Northern Ireland, Moldova

A bracket that’s anything but straightforward. It’s enough to remember that Sweden and Macedonia have already ended two World Cup dreams for the Azzurri in recent years. As Gattuso notes, “the playoffs are not a given, and we can’t afford to play with fire.”

Possible opponents and the risks along the way

Looking at the current standings of the European groups, several groups remain up in the air:

Group A: Germany, Northern Ireland, and Slovakia level.

Group C: Denmark ahead of Scotland.

Group J: Macedonia ahead of Belgium, but with an unfavorable schedule.

Group L: Croatia and the Czech Republic tied on points.

In the other groups, the top spot already seems assigned (Switzerland, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Austria, Norway, and England).

Italy could therefore find themselves facing tough opponents already in the playoff semifinal or final: no easy clashes, no margin for error.

Key dates: from the November draw to the decisive March clashes

The playoff calendar is already set:

November 21, 2025: official draw in Zurich.

March 26, 2026: single-leg semifinals.

March 31, 2026: potential qualification final.

Only after that date will the names of the last four European teams qualified for the 2026 World Cup be known; the group-stage draw is scheduled for December 5 in Washington.

Italy, as the fans hope, must be one of those teams, to replace — symbolically and finally — one of the six “X” still empty on the bracket with a single word: Italy.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.