Jones Knows Notebook: Oliver Glasner uncertainty, one win in 12 - why are Crystal Palace still Conference League favourites? | OneFootball

UEFA Europa Conference League

Conference League tips: Why Crystal Palace are vulnerable

Crystal Palace are still the Betfair Exchange favourites to win the Conference League, but that price feels stuck in December. With Oliver Glasner leaving, Marc Guehi gone and one win in 12, Lewis Jones thinks the market hasn't reacted to the chaos...

Conference League favs? Not this version of Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace are 4.2 on the Betfair Exchange to win the UEFA Europa Conference League.

That's almost the same price they were when they last kicked a ball in the competition on December 18. Two months ago. An eternity in football terms. And here's the thing, the world has moved on. Palace haven't. At least not in the betting.

Ante-post markets can be sleepy beasts. When there are no games for weeks, sometimes prices just sit there. Untouched. Unquestioned. Unmoved by events unfolding elsewhere.

This feels like one of those times.

Let's rewind. Back then, the narrative was still chiming like a fairytale.

Oliver Glasner was conducting from the touchline like the maestro he is. Palace were organised, aggressive and emotionally charged. Yes, there was some discontent building but this was still a team with clarity. A team you could easily see bulldozing their way through a competition that, let's be honest, doesn't exactly drip with European royalty.

Fast forward to now and the mood music has changed completely.

Glasner has announced he's leaving. A seismic moment for the club. Managers of this ilk don't publicly declare their exit mid-season without it having an impact.

Then there's the captain.

Marc Guehi has gone. The defensive cornerstone.

Ahead of stepping back into the competition this Thursday in a playoff with Zrinjski, they have won just one game in 12 matches across all competitions. In that time they've lost to non-league Macclesfield, they've been beaten by Burnley - a side that hadn't won in 14.

Yet the Conference League market has shrugged rather than reacted accordingly.

Being a Premier League club carries gravitas in the Conference League. Of course it does. Palace, on paper, stack up physically, financially and individually against most of what this competition throws up. But football is played on emotion, rhythm and belief. And right now, Palace look like a club caught in the headlights.

Relegation fears could dominate Palace minds

There's also the small matter of the Premier League table.

If a relegation scrap starts to tighten its grip - Palace are just six points off the drop - priorities change very quickly. Thursday nights in obscure corners of Europe lose their charm when Sunday survival becomes the overriding objective.

There's also the big elephant in the room of Glasner packing his bags before the end of the campaign.

Glasner's cup pedigree is elite. This is a manager whose knockout nous is arguably his greatest asset. If he walks earlier than expected - and that possibility now hangs in the air based on results - Palace lose their biggest edge in this competition in one fell swoop.

At 4.2, the market is still pricing Palace up as the stable and secure version of Palace led by one of the best pound-for-pound managers in world football.

This version is a Palace littered by uncertainty.

Could they still win it? Absolutely. The quality hasn't evaporated overnight. But betting is about price versus probability. And right now, that 4.2 looks skinny.

If the market fully digested the managerial uncertainty, the leadership vacuum and the alarming domestic form, I suspect Palace would be trading quite a bit bigger.

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How to profit from Palace's vulnerability?

So, what's the betting strategy?

For me it's quite simple. Get Strasbourg, second favourites in the outright market at 6.0, on your side.

With such flakiness surrounding Palace, the Ligue 1 outfit have shown they have the quality and formlines to pose a serious challenge at winning this title. I think they should be outright favourites.

Losing Liam Rosenior to Chelsea and bringing in Gary O'Neil hasn't rocked their momentum based on recent performances. Just two defeats in his first seven games in charge - one of those to PSG where they won the expected goals battle - shows this team are still full of belief.

Unlike Palace, they managed to negotiate their way comfortably into the top eight of the Conference League, bypassing the fiddly playoff round. And Strasbourg showed Palace what they were all about up close when beating them 2-1 in November, creating 2.5 worth of expected goals even whilst resting their two most important players in Joaquín Panichelli and Martial Godo.

If you're looking to play this market smart rather than emotionally, Strasbourg make far more appeal than Crystal Palace at the current prices.

While Palace are being priced on reputation and Premier League muscle memory, Strasbourg are a settled, upward-trending side with clarity and momentum.

In ante-post markets, value often lies with the team whose situation is improving, not the one whose reputation is lingering. Strasbourg are the bet.

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Back Strasbourg to win Conference League @ 6.0